Weekly Drawdown Report: May 30, 2026

PayPal Is Down 85% Over 1,700 Days. How This Drawdown Compares.

PayPal (PYPL) has now spent 1,706 days in a continuous decline, reaching a peak-to-trough loss of 85.5% as of May 30, 2026. Our data shows this sell-off carries a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 18.8, placing it among the five most distressed assets in our tracked universe. This prolonged erosion of value highlights a broader trend of persistent weakness in former fintech leaders that have failed to reclaim historical highs.

The market environment as of May 30, 2026, reflects significant underlying stress across multiple sectors. Our data indicates that the average Drawdown Severity Score™ across all 769 tracked assets has climbed to 5.4. This average places the broader market firmly in the "Red Zone," a designation we use for assets or indices with a severity score of 5.0 or higher.

Market Distribution: The Red Zone Expands

As of May 30, 2026, the internal health of the market shows a heavy tilt toward severe pullbacks. Out of the 769 assets we monitor, 339 are currently in the Red Zone. This means 44.1% of the market is experiencing a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 5.0 or higher, representing significant price departures from previous peaks.

The remaining assets are split between moderate and low risk categories. There are 192 assets in the Yellow Zone, accounting for 25.0% of our universe with a severity score between 2.0 and 5.0. Meanwhile, 238 assets remain in the Green Zone, representing 30.9% of the market with a Drawdown Severity Score™ below 2.0.

These metrics suggest that while some sectors remain resilient, nearly half of the tracked market is grappling with deep or prolonged retracements. The high average severity score of 5.4 confirms that the depth and duration of current declines are statistically significant compared to historical norms.

Critical Zone Changes and Shifts in Momentum

The week ending May 30, 2026, saw several notable shifts in Drawdown Severity Score™ status as volatility impacted specific sectors. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) crossed a critical threshold, moving from the Yellow Zone into the Red Zone. It now carries a severity score of 5.3, signaling that its current decline has intensified beyond a standard correction.

We also observed shifts in defensive and energy sectors. Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) moved from the Green Zone to the Yellow Zone, ending the period with a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 2.0. Similarly, Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) transitioned from Green to Yellow with a severity score of 2.4. These movements indicate that even traditionally stable areas of the market are beginning to see their cushions from all-time highs erode.

Conversely, Waters Corp (WAT) showed signs of stabilization, moving from the Yellow Zone back to the Green Zone with a severity score of 1.9. UGI Corp (UGI) also saw a slight improvement in its technical profile, moving from the Red Zone to the Yellow Zone, though it maintains a high severity score of 4.9. Several stocks remained stuck in deep Red Zone territory, including Zscaler (ZS) at 10.7, Workday (WDAY) at 9.1, and Atlassian (TEAM) at 13.5.

The Highest Severity Scores in the Market

The most extreme drawdowns in our database represent multi-year, and in some cases, multi-decade declines. The highest Drawdown Severity Score™ currently belongs to EnSync (EU), which has a severity score of 22.5. As of May 30, 2026, the stock is down 82.6% over a staggering 5,585 days.

Nano Dimension (NNDM) follows closely with a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 19.5, reflecting a 98.0% drop from its peak over 3,670 days. The financial sector also hosts one of the most enduring declines in history. American International Group (AIG) carries a severity score of 18.9, remaining 94.0% below its historical peak after 9,282 days.

Rounding out the top five are PayPal (PYPL) and EPAM Systems (EPAM). While PayPal's 18.8 severity score is driven by its 85.5% drop, EPAM sits at a severity score of 18.3 with a drawdown of 85.7% lasting ,1607 days. These scores quantify not just the percentage lost, but the immense time investors have waited for a recovery that has yet to materialize.

Approaching the Red Zone: Stocks at a Crossroads

Several stocks are currently hovering just below or at the 5.0 threshold, a level that often precedes a more accelerated period of selling or a long-term structural decline. First Majestic Silver (AG), Synopsys (SNPS), and Medpace Holdings (MEDP) all finished the week of May 30, 2026, with a Drawdown Severity Score™ of exactly 5.0.

For Synopsys (SNPS), the 26.3% decline has lasted 240 days. While this is shorter than the multi-year drawdowns of the top five list, the speed of the decline contributes to its high severity score. Medpace Holdings (MEDP) reached its 5.0 score in just 89 days, falling 28.0% from its recent highs.

Other notable names nearing this boundary include Lowe's (LOW), which has a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 4.9 after a 25.4% drop over 72 days. Capital One Financial (COF) is also under pressure with a severity score of 4.8, having fallen 27.1% over the last 99 days. When a Drawdown Severity Score™ approaches 5.0, our data suggests the asset is entering a phase where the pullback is no longer considered "routine" market noise.

Mega-Cap Check: Stability vs. Erosion

The performance of mega-cap stocks remains central to the broader market's Drawdown Severity Score™ of 5.4. While many smaller constituents have plunged into the Red Zone, the largest companies by market capitalization are providing a mixed signal. As of May 30, 2026, we are seeing a widening gap between tech leaders that have maintained their Green Zone status and those beginning to slip.

The transition of Workday (WDAY) and Atlassian (TEAM) remaining deep in the Red Zone suggests that enterprise software is struggling more than hardware or consumer internet giants. With Atlassian (TEAM) holding a severity score of 13.5, the data shows that even high-quality software names are not immune to massive, multi-year drawdowns.

The fact that 44.1% of all tracked assets are in the Red Zone, while the average severity is 5.4, indicates that the "average" stock is currently in a state of significant distress. Investors monitoring these scores should note that a Drawdown Severity Score™ above 5.0 historically identifies assets that require much higher volume and time to repair the technical damage caused by the sell-off.

What to Watch Next Week

Heading into the first week of June, we are closely monitoring Capital One Financial (COF) and NRG Energy (NRG). Both assets are currently sitting with a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 4.8 and 4.9 respectively. A further decline of even 1-2% could push these stocks into the Red Zone, joining the 339 other assets already there.

We are also watching the recovery attempt in Waters Corp (WAT). After moving into the Green Zone this week with a severity score of 1.9, its ability to stay below the 2.0 threshold will be a key indicator of whether the broader life sciences tools sector is finding a floor.

Finally, the persistence of the 18.8 Drawdown Severity Score™ for PayPal (PYPL) remains a primary focus. With 1,706 days elapsed since its peak, every passing week without a significant rally increases the "time" component of its severity score. Our data shows that assets spending more than 1,500 days in a drawdown of this magnitude face significant structural hurdles to returning to previous all-time highs.