SCHY Is Down 4% Over 55 Days. What History Says Now

SCHY Has Been Falling for 55 Days. What History Says

The Schwab International Dividend Equity ETF (SCHY) has improved its risk profile as of May 18, 2026, moving from the yellow zone into the green zone. Our data shows the current drawdown stands at -4.2%, a recovery from recent lows that has shifted the Drawdown Severity Score™ to 1.5. This score is categorized as Slightly Elevated, reflecting a stabilization in price action relative to its all-time high of $33.93.

This shift marks a transition in the current price cycle which has lasted 55 days. During this period, the Drawdown Severity Score™ reached levels that triggered a yellow zone classification, indicating a more significant departure from historical norms for this specific asset. The current price of $32.50 represents a move toward reclaiming the previous peak, though the ETF remains in a defined drawdown state.

Tracking the 55-Day Pullback

The current decline began 55 days ago when the ETF retreated from its all-time high. At its deepest point in this cycle, the drawdown exceeded the asset's historical average max drawdown of -1.7%. By crossing back into the green zone with a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 1.5, the data suggests the intensity of the selling pressure has diminished compared to the peak of the current move.

Historically, Schwab International Dividend Equity ETF (SCHY) has experienced 59 total drawdown events. The average duration for these pullbacks is 28 days, meaning the current 55-day event is nearly double the typical length of a decline for this ticker. This extended duration was a primary factor in the elevated severity score observed during the previous weeks in the yellow zone.

Historical Context and Comparable Events

To understand the current -4.2% drawdown, we must look at how the Schwab International Dividend Equity ETF (SCHY) behaves when it deviates significantly from its average volatility. Our data shows that this ETF has dropped by 5% or more only 4 times in its history. This is a small sample size, which suggests that pullbacks of this magnitude are relatively rare for this specific asset.

When these 5% or larger drops occur, the recovery process tends to be prolonged. The average duration of these comparable historical drops is 306 days. While the current drawdown of -4.2% has not yet reached the 5% threshold, its proximity to that level places it in a different category than the 59 standard drawdown events we have tracked.

The disparity between the 28-day average drawdown and the 306-day average for 5% drops highlights a bifurcated risk profile. Smaller pullbacks in Schwab International Dividend Equity ETF (SCHY) tend to resolve quickly, while deeper moves have historically required several months to reach new highs. Our Drawdown Severity Score™ accounts for these historical outliers when calculating the current risk zone.

Data Limits and Analysis Framework

This analysis relies exclusively on verified price, drawdown, severity, and duration data as of May 18, 2026. We do not incorporate fundamental metrics, macroeconomic indicators, or external market narratives into this assessment. The Drawdown Severity Score™ is a proprietary calculation based on the historical price behavior of the Schwab International Dividend Equity ETF (SCHY) and its relationship to previous peak prices.

The conclusions drawn here are based on the 59 historical drawdown events recorded in our database. Because the asset has only dropped 5% or more 4 times, the historical averages for comparable drops should be viewed with the caveat of a small sample size. This data provides a framework for understanding price extremity but does not predict future performance.

Monitoring Severity Thresholds

Investors tracking the Schwab International Dividend Equity ETF (SCHY) should monitor the -5% drawdown level, as crossing this threshold would align the current move with the most significant pullbacks in the asset's history. A move deeper into the drawdown would likely cause the Drawdown Severity Score™ to rise back into the yellow or red zones.

Conversely, a continued move toward the all-time high of $33.93 would result in a further decrease of the severity score. The current score of 1.5 indicates that while the ETF is no longer in a high-intensity sell-off, it has not yet returned to a neutral state. We will continue to monitor the price action to determine if this green zone transition holds or if the drawdown duration continues to extend beyond the 55-day mark.