SCHY Is Down 5% in 70 Days. What History Says Now

Schwab's SCHY Is Down 5% in 70 Days. What History Says

As of June 9, 2026, the Schwab International Dividend Equity ETF (SCHY) has improved its risk profile, moving from the yellow zone to the green zone as its drawdown moderated to -5.4%. The ETF has spent 70 days in this drawdown cycle, recovering partially to a price of $32.09, which is $1.84 below its all-time high of $33.93. This shift indicates a reduction in short-term downside risk according to our proprietary risk models.

Transitioning From the Yellow Zone to the Green Zone

The risk profile of SCHY has experienced a notable shift as of June 9, 2026. The Drawdown Severity Score™ for SCHY stands at 1.9, which is classified as Slightly Elevated and places the asset in the green zone. This represents a clear improvement from its previous position in the yellow zone, indicating that the severity of the decline has decreased.

The asset has been in a drawdown state for 70 days as of the June 9, 2026 data date. During this period, the price experienced downward pressure before stabilizing at the current price of $32.09. This duration of 70 days is significantly longer than the historical average drawdown duration for this asset, which typically resolves much faster.

The transition out of the yellow zone indicates that the extreme downside momentum has slowed. While the asset remains in a drawdown of -5.4%, the risk profile has shifted to a less severe category. This transition suggests that the immediate selling pressure has moderated, allowing the asset to stabilize.

Analyzing SCHY's Current Drawdown Depth

The current drawdown of -5.4% is calculated from the all-time high of $33.93. The current price of $32.09 represents a recovery from the lowest points of the cycle, though it remains below the peak. This gap of $1.84 defines the remaining distance that the ETF must climb to achieve a full recovery.

Our data shows that the average historical drawdown for SCHY is -1.7%. The current peak-to-trough decline of -5.4% is more than three times deeper than this historical average. This highlights the unusual nature of the current cycle compared to the typical behavior of the asset.

The duration of 70 days also contrasts sharply with the historical average drawdown duration of 28 days. This extended period of recovery indicates that the current cycle is more persistent than historical norms. The asset is taking longer to reclaim its previous highs, reflecting a more prolonged period of price consolidation.

Historical Comparison: How Prior Drawdowns Evolved

SCHY has a total of 59 historical drawdown events in its tracking history. Among these 59 events, the vast majority have been shallow, as reflected by the historical average max drawdown of -1.7%. These minor pullbacks typically resolve quickly, allowing the asset to resume its upward trend with minimal disruption.

However, drops of 5% or more are relatively rare for this asset. Our data shows that SCHY has experienced a drop of 5% or more only 4 times in its history. This small sample size of 4 events is a critical caveat when analyzing historical averages for this asset, as a limited dataset can distort statistical projections.

For these 4 comparable drops of 5% or more, the average duration of the drawdown was 306 days. This is much longer than the current 70 days that SCHY has spent in its current drawdown. This historical context suggests that when the asset breaches the 5% threshold, the recovery process is typically measured in months rather than weeks.

The table below compares the current drawdown metrics against the historical averages for all drawdowns and comparable deep drawdowns.

This comparison highlights the divergence between typical market fluctuations and deeper correction cycles. While the current drawdown is deeper than 59% of historical events, it has not yet reached the average duration of the 4 most severe historical declines.

Understanding the Drawdown Severity Score™ Framework

The Drawdown Severity Score™ is a proprietary metric designed to measure the intensity of an asset's price decline relative to its historical behavior. It standardizes drawdown depth and duration to provide a clear picture of risk. This framework allows investors to look past daily price noise and focus on structured risk levels.

The score ranges across different zones, with the green zone representing low to slightly elevated risk, the yellow zone representing elevated risk, and the red zone representing severe risk. As of June 9, 2026, SCHY's score of 1.9 places it in the green zone, indicating that the severity of the decline is currently categorized as Slightly Elevated.

This Drawdown Severity Score™ of 1.9 reflects the fact that while the drawdown of -5.4% is deeper than the historical average of -1.7%, the rate of decline has moderated. The transition from the yellow zone to the green zone suggests that the immediate downward velocity has decreased, even though the price remains below its all-time high. The severity score provides an objective way to track this stabilization without relying on emotional market sentiment.

Data Limits and Analytical Methodology

Our analysis relies strictly on verified historical price and drawdown data for SCHY as of June 9, 2026. We do not incorporate external market narratives, macroeconomic factors, or corporate events into this quantitative assessment. This ensures that the analysis remains entirely objective and focused on the historical footprint of the asset.

By focusing solely on price action and drawdown history, we provide a clear view of the asset's risk profile. It is important to note that historical performance does not guarantee future results, and the small sample size of 4 comparable drawdown events of 5% or more limits the statistical significance of the historical averages. The data represents the historical behavior of the asset under specific conditions, which may or may not replicate in future cycles.

Investors should monitor these technical levels as part of a broader risk management strategy. This data-only approach ensures that the analysis remains unbiased and free from speculative assumptions. We present the facts of the drawdown as they exist in the price history, allowing readers to apply this data to their own decision-making frameworks.

Key Drawdown Levels and Thresholds to Watch

To understand how the risk profile of SCHY might evolve, several price and drawdown thresholds are critical to monitor. These levels act as boundaries that define whether the asset is recovering or entering a deeper correction phase.

First, a return to the yellow zone would occur if the Drawdown Severity Score™ rises above 2.0. This would likely happen if the price falls further below the current level of $32.09, deepening the drawdown beyond -5.4%. A drop below the current price would signal that the stabilization observed as of June 9, 2026, was temporary.

Second, the all-time high of $33.93 remains the ultimate recovery target. For SCHY to fully exit the drawdown state, it must rise by $1.84, or approximately 5.73% from its current price of $32.09. Reaching this level would reset the severity score to 0.0 and end the current 70-day drawdown cycle.

Third, if the drawdown deepens and exceeds the current -5.4% level, it could approach the historical average duration of 306 days for comparable drops. Monitoring the daily price action relative to these historical benchmarks provides objective reference points for assessing whether the current recovery trend will persist. If the current cycle aligns with the 4 previous deep drawdowns, the recovery could remain a long-term process.

Risk Framing and Duration Context for Investors

When evaluating the risk profile of SCHY as of June 9, 2026, the duration of the current drawdown is a key metric. At 70 days, the asset has already spent more than double its historical average drawdown duration of 28 days in this cycle. This indicates that the current recovery is taking longer than the typical minor pullbacks seen in the past.

This extended duration indicates that the current market environment has been less favorable for a rapid recovery compared to the other 58 historical drawdown events. However, it remains far shorter than the 306-day average duration observed during the 4 historical events where the drawdown exceeded 5%. This wide gap between the 28-day general average and the 306-day comparable average highlights the binary nature of SCHY's drawdowns.

Shallow pullbacks of less than 5% tend to resolve very quickly, while deeper pullbacks historically take many months to fully recover. As of June 9, 2026, the current drawdown of -5.4% sits right at this critical threshold. The transition to the green zone with a current severity score of 1.9 suggests stabilization, but the historical data indicates that a full recovery could still require a significant period if the current cycle aligns with the longer-term comparable averages.