SCHY Is Down 6% Over 68 Days. What History Says Now.

SCHY Has Fallen 6% in 68 Days. Here Is What History Says.

As of June 5, 2026, Schwab International Dividend Equity ETF (SCHY) has crossed from its low-risk green zone into the yellow zone, registering a current drawdown of -6.2% from its all-time high of $33.93. This shift is marked by a proprietary Drawdown Severity Score™ of 2.2, which indicates a moderately elevated risk profile after 68 consecutive days in a drawdown state. Historically, drops of this magnitude are rare for this fund, occurring only 4 times since its inception.

Understanding the Yellow Zone Transition for SCHY

The transition of SCHY from the green zone to the yellow zone represents a shift from normal market noise into a moderately elevated drawdown phase. With a current price of $31.83 as of June 5, 2026, the fund is now trading -6.2% below its all-time high of $33.93. This 68-day decline has pushed the Drawdown Severity Score™ to 2.2, signaling that the current pullback has exceeded typical historical retracements.

To put this in perspective, our data shows that the average historical drawdown for SCHY is only -1.7%. The current -6.2% drop is more than three times deeper than the historical average. This indicates that the current sell-off is not a standard minor fluctuation but a more prolonged period of downward pressure.

The duration of the current decline also stands out when compared to historical norms. While the average drawdown duration for this fund is 28 days, the current drawdown has persisted for 68 days. This extended timeline suggests that buying pressure has been insufficient to stage a rapid recovery, allowing the drawdown to mature into a yellow zone event.

Historical Context of the 2.2 Drawdown Severity Score™

A Drawdown Severity Score™ of 2.2 classified as Moderately Elevated provides a quantitative framework to evaluate the current pullback against the historical behavior of SCHY. Across 59 total historical drawdown events tracked in our database, the majority have been shallow and brief. The current score of 2.2 reflects a departure from these routine market movements.

When a fund enters the yellow zone, it indicates that the risk-reward profile has shifted. While a green zone status denotes typical market volatility, a severity score of 2.2 means the drawdown has breached the standard deviation of normal pullbacks. For long-term investors, this quantitative boundary serves as an objective marker that risk has systematically increased.

Our data shows that the transition to a 2.2 severity score is relatively uncommon for this specific asset. Because the fund historically experiences mild pullbacks, a -6.2% drawdown represents a significant tail-event within its historical distribution. Understanding how the fund has behaved during similar breaches is critical for assessing potential recovery paths.

Historical Behavior of SCHY During 5% Pullbacks

To understand what might happen next, we must examine how SCHY has responded when crossing the -5% drawdown threshold. Our data shows that the fund has dropped 5% or more from its peak only 4 times in its history. This small sample size of 4 events is an important caveat, as it limits the statistical certainty of any historical averages.

On average, these comparable drops of 5% or more have required an average duration of 306 days to fully recover to previous highs. This is significantly longer than the fund's overall average drawdown duration of 28 days.

| Metric | Current Drawdown Event | Historical 5%+ Drawdown Average | Overall Fund Average | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Drawdown Depth | -6.2% | -5.0% or deeper | -1.7% | | Drawdown Duration | 68 days | 306 days (recovery time) | 28 days | | Total Occurrences | 1 (Active) | 4 times | 59 times |

The discrepancy between the overall average drawdown duration of 28 days and the 306-day average for 5%+ pullbacks highlights a key risk. When SCHY enters a deeper pullback, the recovery process has historically been a multi-month endeavor rather than a quick bounce. Investors tracking the current 68-day drawdown should note that past comparable events have spent considerable time in depressed territory before reclaiming prior peaks.

Statistical Distribution of SCHY Drawdowns

Analyzing the complete distribution of the 59 total historical drawdown events provides deeper insight into why the current -6.2% level is noteworthy. The vast majority of these 59 events resolved quickly and never approached the -5% threshold. This concentration of shallow pullbacks is typical for a dividend-focused international equity fund, which generally aims for lower volatility relative to broader market indices.

When we break down the historical drawdown events, we observe that over 80% of all pullbacks in SCHY remained shallower than -3%. The current -6.2% drawdown places this event in the extreme right tail of the fund's historical drawdown distribution. This statistical reality is what drives the current Drawdown Severity Score™ of 2.2.

Because the fund has only crossed the -5% mark 4 times, the current 68-day period represents a highly atypical market regime for SCHY. In standard market environments, buyers have historically stepped in much earlier to reverse declines. The persistent selling pressure over the last 68 days indicates a deviation from the fund's historical norm of rapid stabilization.

Data Limits and Methodology

This drawdown analysis is based strictly on historical price data and drawdown metrics compiled as of June 5, 2026. Our data shows the exact mechanical behavior of the fund's price relative to its historical peaks. It does not incorporate fundamental analysis, macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical events, or individual stock holdings within the ETF.

We do not make causal claims regarding why the fund has declined -6.2% over the last 68 days. The transition to the yellow zone and the severity score are mathematical calculations based on the fund's price path and historical distribution of pullbacks. Investors should use these quantitative metrics as a risk management tool alongside other fundamental and qualitative research.

The small sample size of 4 comparable events is another critical limitation. With only 4 historical instances of a 5% or deeper drawdown, the statistical average recovery duration of 306 days should be interpreted with caution. Past performance and historical averages do not guarantee future results or identical recovery timelines.

Key Risk Markers to Watch

As SCHY continues its journey through the yellow zone, several key quantitative markers will dictate whether the risk profile stabilizes or escalates. The first critical marker is the -5% threshold itself, which the fund has already breached. Sustained trading below this level confirms that the fund is operating in a high-severity regime relative to its historical track record.

The second marker to monitor is the duration of the current drawdown, which stands at 68 days as of June 5, 2026. If the drawdown extends past the 100-day mark without reclaiming the all-time high of $33.93, it will further align this event with the longer-term historical pullbacks that averaged 306 days to resolve. A lengthening duration without price recovery typically exerts downward pressure on the severity score, potentially pushing it deeper into the yellow zone or toward the red zone.

Finally, investors should monitor the specific Drawdown Severity Score™ of 2.2. Any further price declines from the current $31.83 level will trigger an increase in the severity score. A move beyond a score of 3.0 would indicate an even more severe deviation from historical norms, prompting a re-evaluation of the fund's short-term risk profile.