Every Major Bitcoin Bear Market Since 2011
| Event | Start | End | Depth | Duration | Recovery | Severity Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 Crash (Mt. Gox hack) | Jun 2011 | Nov 2011 | -93.6% | ~150 days | ~15 months | 12.0+ |
| 2013-2015 Bear Market | Nov 2013 | Jan 2015 | -86.9% | ~410 days | ~2 years | 12.0+ |
| 2017-2018 Bear Market | Dec 2017 | Dec 2018 | ~-84.2% | ~363 days | ~2 years | 12.0+ |
| COVID Crash ("Black Thursday") | Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | ~-63.3% | ~29 days | ~4.5 months | ~9.9 |
| 2021 Mid-Cycle Crash | Apr 2021 | Jun 2021 | -55.6% | ~69 days | ~4 months | ~8.7 |
| 2021-2022 Bear Market (FTX collapse) | Nov 2021 | Nov 2022 | ~-77.6% | ~376 days | ~16 months | 12.0+ |
Conventions: Depth is the peak-to-trough decline on daily closing (or near-close) prices. Duration is the approximate number of calendar days from the peak to the trough. Recovery is measured from the trough until the price closed above the prior all-time high again (not from the peak). Values marked "~" are approximations compiled from public Bitcoin price records, since reported peak/trough prices vary slightly by exchange and data source for an asset that trades continuously across many venues, unlike the single closing price used for equity indexes.
This table intentionally uses a much higher threshold (roughly 30%+) than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq history pages (10%+), because Bitcoin's day-to-day volatility makes 10-20% pullbacks a routine, multiple-times-per-year occurrence rather than a notable event. Severity scores are retroactive estimates using DrawdownAlerts' methodology and are not directly comparable across eras or across asset classes, because each asset's historical baseline evolves over time.
Key Observations
- -Bitcoin's worst drawdowns are far deeper than any major stock index's, but its most recent bear markets have generally been shallower than its earliest ones — from -93.6% in 2011 to roughly -77.6% in the 2021-2022 FTX-era bear market — a pattern consistent with a maturing, more liquid market.
- -Recovery time has not shortened as consistently as drawdown depth has. The 2013-2015 and 2017-2018 bear markets each took about 2 years from trough to a new all-time high, while the much shorter, sharper 2020 and 2021 crashes recovered in only 4-4.5 months.
- -Every major Bitcoin bear market has eventually been followed by a new all-time high, though the wait has varied from about 4 months to roughly 2 years across this dataset — investors who need certainty on timing should treat that history as descriptive, not predictive.
- -The 2021-2022 bear market (~-77.6%) coincided with the FTX exchange collapse, echoing the exchange-failure pattern (Mt. Gox) that also marked Bitcoin's 2011 and 2013-2015 crashes — a recurring, crypto-specific risk factor that has no direct equivalent on the S&P 500 or Nasdaq pages.
How to Read This Table
Event: The commonly used name for the drawdown or the crypto-market event that triggered it.
Start: The approximate month Bitcoin began declining from its prior all-time high.
End: The approximate month Bitcoin reached the trough (lowest point) of the drawdown.
Depth: The maximum percentage decline from the peak to the trough. A depth of -93.6% means the price lost more than nineteen-twentieths of its value.
Duration: The approximate number of calendar days from the start of the decline to the trough.
Recovery: The time from the trough until Bitcoin closed above the prior all-time high again. Note this is measured from the trough, not from the peak; measured from the peak, recoveries take the duration plus this figure.
Severity Score: An estimated Drawdown Severity Score based on DrawdownAlerts' methodology, which considers both depth and duration relative to historical norms. Higher scores indicate more extreme, statistically rare drawdowns.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the worst Bitcoin drawdown ever?
The worst Bitcoin drawdown on record was the 2011 crash, when the price fell 93.6% from a peak of about $31.50 in June 2011 to about $2.01 in November 2011, following an early Mt. Gox exchange incident. The 2013-2015 bear market was the second-worst, with an 86.9% decline from $1,163 in November 2013 to $152 in January 2015, driven in large part by the 2014 Mt. Gox collapse.
How often does Bitcoin have a 50%+ drawdown?
Bitcoin has had a drawdown of 50% or more from a prior all-time high at least six times since 2011: the 2011 crash (-93.6%), the 2013-2015 bear market (-86.9%), the 2017-2018 bear market (~-84.2%), the March 2020 COVID crash (~-63.3%), the April-June 2021 mid-cycle crash (-55.6%), and the 2021-2022 FTX-era bear market (~-77.6%). That is roughly once every 1.5 to 2 years on average, reflecting Bitcoin's far higher volatility versus equity indexes like the S&P 500.
How long does it take Bitcoin to recover from a bear market?
Recovery time varies dramatically with the cycle. The fastest recoveries followed the sharpest, shortest crashes: the April-June 2021 mid-cycle crash recovered to a new all-time high in about 4 months, and the March 2020 COVID crash recovered in about 4.5 months. The longest bear markets each took about 2 years: the 2013-2015 bear market and the 2017-2018 bear market both needed roughly 24 months from their trough to a new all-time high. The 2021-2022 FTX-era bear market took about 16 months from its November 2022 trough to a new all-time high in March 2024. View the current Bitcoin (BTC-USD) drawdown status.
Data based on Bitcoin daily closing prices. Drawdown Severity Scores are estimated using DrawdownAlerts' methodology. Dates are approximate.
Last updated:
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