Weekly Drawdown Report: April 6, 2026

Here are the numbers as of this week's close.

Across the 398 stocks, ETFs, and crypto assets tracked by DrawdownAlerts, the severity distribution breaks down as follows:

• 150 assets (37.7%) are in the red zone (severity 5+)
• 111 assets (27.9%) are in the yellow zone (severity 2-5)
• 137 assets (34.4%) are in the green zone (severity 0-2)

That means nearly two-thirds of tracked assets are currently experiencing above-normal drawdowns. In a healthy bull market, you'd typically see 70-80% of assets in the green zone. The current 34.4% green reading reflects significant stress under the surface, even as headline indices trade near highs.

Highest Severity Scores

The two most extreme severity readings in our database right now:

PayPal: severity 17.2, down 78.3% for 1,571 days. Teladoc: severity 16.1, down 97.5% for 1,738 days. Both have been in continuous decline for over four years.

For context, a severity score above 12 means the drawdown is more than 12x what's typical for that stock based on its historical volatility. These are genuinely unprecedented levels for both companies.

Mega-Cap Stability

The largest tech companies remain firmly in the green zone. Apple closed at $273.47 (0.6% from its $275.25 ATH, severity 0.1). Microsoft at $508.68 (6.2% from ATH, severity 1.3). Nvidia at $193.16 (6.7% from ATH, severity 1.1).

The divergence between mega-cap calm and mid/small-cap stress continues to be the defining feature of this market. Large-cap indices can sit near highs while a significant percentage of individual stocks are in historic drawdowns.

Approaching the Red Zone

These 8 stocks currently sit between severity 4.0 and 5.0, placing them in the upper yellow zone. Any further decline could push them into red territory:

The full list of stocks approaching the red zone boundary:

• PDD/" class="text-primary hover:underline">PDD Holdings (severity 4.96): Down 32.4% for 113 days
• Diamondback Energy (FANG) (severity 4.87): Down 28.0% for 89 days
• Texas Instruments (TXN) (severity 4.86): Down 26.6% for 166 days
• Blackstone (BX) (severity 4.85): Down 25.1% for 89 days
• Apollo Global (APO) (severity 4.77): Down 24.4% for 89 days
• SBUX/" class="text-primary hover:underline">Starbucks (SBUX) (severity 4.73): Down 24.4% for 327 days
• ADP (severity 4.71): Down 21.2% for 89 days

These are names worth watching this week. If earnings disappoint or macro conditions worsen, several could cross the severity 5.0 threshold.

Approaching the Yellow Zone

On the other end, these stocks in the upper green zone (severity 1.5-2.0) could cross into elevated territory:

• SHOP/" class="text-primary hover:underline">Shopify (SHOP) (severity 1.93): Down 11.2% for 11 days
• Booking Holdings (BKNG) (severity 1.89): Down 9.2% for 89 days
• MetLife (MET) (severity 1.84): Down 8.5% for 52 days

What This Distribution Means

A 37.7% red zone reading is elevated. It means more than a third of the assets we track are experiencing historically unusual drawdowns for their respective volatility profiles.

This isn't a market crash scenario (that would be 60-80% red). It's a market where the pain is concentrated in specific pockets: former pandemic growth stocks, some financials, portions of the energy sector, and several mid-cap tech names.

The severity distribution is a useful temperature check that cuts through the noise of index-level performance. When the red zone percentage starts declining, it signals that the broad recovery is underway, not just the mega-cap rally.