Weekly Drawdown Report: April 18, 2026

PayPal Is Down 84% Over 1,600 Days. Is the Bottom Finally In?

The average Drawdown Severity Score™ across our tracked universe has climbed to 5.3 as of April 18, 2026. This represents a significant shift in market character, as more than 40% of the assets we monitor are now entrenched in the "Red Zone." Our data indicates that the broad market is currently grappling with persistent selling pressure that has pushed the majority of equities away from their historical peaks.

We track 715 total assets to provide a comprehensive view of market health through the lens of pullbacks and recoveries. As of April 18, 2026, the distribution of these assets shows a market heavily weighted toward significant declines. There are 298 assets (41.7%) currently in the Red Zone with a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 5 or higher. Meanwhile, 204 assets (28.5%) sit in the Yellow Zone with a severity score between 2 and 5, and 213 assets (29.8%) remain in the Green Zone with a severity score below 2.

Market Heat Map: The Red Zone Dominance

The current average Drawdown Severity Score™ of 5.3 suggests that the "typical" stock in our database is currently experiencing a drawdown that is both deep and prolonged. When the average score crosses the 5.0 threshold, it typically indicates that corrections are no longer isolated to specific sectors but are becoming a systemic characteristic of the broader tape.

Our data shows that the Red Zone now accounts for the largest share of the market at 41.7%. This concentration in high-severity territory reflects a environment where "buying the dip" has failed to produce immediate recoveries for nearly half of the tracked universe. The Green Zone, which represents stocks trading near their all-time highs or recovering quickly from minor pullbacks, has shrunk to just 29.8% of the total 715 tracked assets.

Significant Zone Shifts This Week

Several notable tickers migrated between risk categories as of April 18, 2026. We saw a distinct movement in energy and defensive sectors. Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) moved from the Green Zone to the Yellow Zone, now carrying a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 2.5. This shift suggests that the primary energy benchmark is beginning to lose the momentum that kept it near recent highs.

Similarly, Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) and Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) both crossed the threshold from Green to Yellow. Both stocks now carry a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 2.1. These movements indicate that even traditional value and income plays are starting to see their drawdowns accelerate beyond the "noise" of daily volatility.

On the recovery front, we observed some positive momentum in retail and industrials. Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) successfully migrated from the Yellow Zone back to the Green Zone with a severity score of 1.7. Textron Inc. (TXT) followed a similar path, improving its Drawdown Severity Score™ to 1.8 and reclaiming Green Zone status. Additionally, the Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) improved to a severity score of 1.9, moving into the Green Zone as healthcare stability returned to the index level.

The Highest Severity Scores in the Market

When we look at the most extreme drawdowns in our database, the numbers reveal staggering long-term declines. These are assets where the Drawdown Severity Score™ has reached levels that indicate multi-year or even multi-decade capital impairment.

Nano Dimension Ltd. (NNDM) currently holds the highest severity score in our system at 19.5. The stock is down 98.0% from its peak, a decline that has lasted 3,641 days. This represents a near-total loss of value over nearly a decade of trading. Close behind is American International Group, Inc. (AIG), which carries a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 18.8. AIG is down 93.6% from its highs, and our data shows this drawdown has persisted for 9,253 days, dating back to the pre-2008 era.

Perhaps most relevant to modern growth investors is PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL). PayPal currently has a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 18.4. The stock is down 83.5% from its all-time high, and this decline has now lasted 1,677 days. Unlike the decades-long struggles of AIG, the PayPal drawdown represents a massive destruction of market capitalization in a relatively shorter five-year window.

Other stocks in this extreme category include PG&E Corporation (PCG), which has a severity score of 17.9 and is down 75.5% over 3,097 days. EPAM Systems, Inc. (EPAM) rounds out the top five with a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 17.5, currently down 81.7% over 1,578 days.

Stocks Approaching the Red Zone Threshold

The "Severity 5" line is the most critical boundary in our analysis. When a stock crosses this line, it moves from a standard correction into a high-severity drawdown. We are currently watching several prominent names that are sitting exactly on or just below this line as of April 18, 2026.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY), Equity Residential (EQR), and Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) all currently sit at a Drawdown Severity Score™ of exactly 5.0. For OXY, this score comes from a 25.9% decline that has persisted for 5,412 days. EQR is down 22.5% over 1,414 days, while CARR is down 24.6% over 507 days. Crossing into the Red Zone suggests that the current price action is significantly worse than the historical "normal" volatility for these specific tickers.

Other notable names on the verge of the Red Zone include DoorDash, Inc. (DASH) and Tencent Holdings Limited (TCEHY), both of which carry a severity score of 5.0. DoorDash is down 34.7% over a relatively short 150 days. Meanwhile, Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is approaching the threshold with a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 4.9, currently down 29.3% over 113 days.

Analyzing the Depth of Modern Tech Declines

The data for First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG) and Amcor plc (AMCR) also shows mounting pressure. AG carries a severity score of 4.8, down 32.9% in just 44 days. This rapid increase in severity over a short period often signals a sharp change in institutional sentiment. AMCR also carries a 4.8 severity score, though its 27.1% decline has been a much slower grind, lasting ,1409 days.

In the technology sector, the persistence of the Red Zone is best exemplified by stocks that have failed to recover despite various market rallies. Zillow Group, Inc. (Z) remains deep in the Red Zone with a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 13.0. Wayfair Inc. (W) is similarly positioned with a severity score of 12.2. These stocks have stayed in the Red Zone for the duration of the week, showing no signs of the "V-shaped" recovery that characterized the post-2020 era.

According to data from Reuters, the broader tech sector has faced headwinds from shifting interest rate expectations, which is reflected in our Drawdown Severity Score™ metrics. Viavi Solutions Inc. (VIAV) remains one of the most distressed tech names in our tracking, with a severity score of 15.8.

What to Watch for Next Week

As we look toward the final week of April, the primary focus remains on the 204 assets currently in the Yellow Zone. With the average Drawdown Severity Score™ sitting at 5.3, the market is at a precarious tipping point. If the 28.5% of stocks in the Yellow Zone continue to see price erosion, we could see the Red Zone percentage climb toward 50% of all tracked assets.

We will be specifically monitoring Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) to see if it crosses the 5.0 severity threshold. Given its current score of 4.9 and its 29.3% distance from its high, any further weakness would officially classify it as a Red Zone asset. We will also watch Amcor plc (AMCR) and First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG) as they sit just 0.2 points away from the high-severity designation.

The rotation of Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) and Textron Inc. (TXT) into the Green Zone provides a rare bright spot. If these leaders can maintain their low Drawdown Severity Score™, it may provide a blueprint for other Yellow Zone stocks to begin their recovery process. However, as of April 18, 2026, the data suggests that the path of least resistance for the majority of the market remains downward, as evidenced by the high concentration of assets with severity scores above 5.0.

Our data continues to highlight the disparity between "shallow" pullbacks and "structural" drawdowns. While a 10% drop might feel significant, the Drawdown Severity Score™ allows us to see that PayPal's 83.5% decline or AIG's 93.6% decline are in an entirely different category of risk. We will continue to monitor the 715 tracked assets for any signs of a broad-based severity reduction.