Weatherford Is Down 28% After 750 Days. What History Says.

Weatherford Is Down 28% After 750 Days. What History Says.

Weatherford International plc (WFRD) is down 28% from its all-time high as of August 14, 2026, having just exited the red zone after approximately 750 days in drawdown. The Drawdown Severity Score™ has improved to 5.0, placing the stock in the yellow zone. In the 5 comparable historical instances where the stock dropped 20% or more, the average duration of the drawdown was 119 days.

Weatherford International's Exit From the Red Zone

The transition of Weatherford from the red zone to the yellow zone marks a shift in its drawdown profile. As of August 14, 2026, the stock has spent 749 days in a continuous drawdown state. This transition indicates that while the stock remains well below its peak, the absolute severity of the decline has moderated.

The Drawdown Severity Score™ now stands at 5.0, which our methodology classifies as a Significant level. This is a measured improvement from the previous red zone classification, which denotes the highest level of drawdown risk. The current price of $94.79 represents a recovery from the lowest points of this cycle, though a 27.8% gap remains to its previous peak.

Measuring the Severity of the 749-Day Drawdown

To understand the scale of the current 749-day drawdown, we must compare it to the historical behavior of the stock. Our database tracks a total of 60 historical drawdown events for Weatherford. Across all of these historical events, the average maximum drawdown was only -6.8%.

Furthermore, the average drawdown duration across those 60 events was just 19 days. The current duration of 749 days is 39.4 times longer than the historical average. This demonstrates that the current correction is an extreme outlier in terms of duration.

The current drawdown depth of -27.8% is also 4.1 times deeper than the historical average maximum drawdown of -6.8%. This extreme divergence from the average historical profile explains why the proprietary severity score remained in the red zone for an extended period. The transition to a severity score of 5.0 reflects a stabilization, but the historical context highlights how prolonged this correction has been.

Historically, the vast majority of Weatherford's drawdowns are resolved rapidly. Out of the 60 documented drawdown events, most were minor pullbacks that corrected within a few weeks. The extraordinary length of the current 749-day period indicates that the asset has broken away from its typical historical pattern.

Historical Drawdown Statistics and Comparable Drops

While the average drawdown for Weatherford is shallow, the stock has experienced deep corrections in the past. Our data shows that the stock has dropped 20% or more from its peak exactly 5 times in its history. These 5 events provide the most relevant historical comparisons for the current -27.8% drawdown.

In those 5 comparable deep drops, the average duration of the drawdown was 119 days. The current drawdown of 749 days is 6.3 times longer than the average of those prior comparable events. This indicates that once Weatherford crosses the 20% drawdown threshold, the recovery process can vary widely, with the current cycle representing the absolute upper bound of duration.

This non-linear relationship between drawdown depth and recovery time is a key characteristic of the asset's historical risk profile. While minor pullbacks of less than 10% are resolved in less than three weeks on average, a breach of the 20% threshold historically extends the recovery timeline to nearly four months. The current cycle has extended this timeline even further, setting a new historical precedent for the stock.

Let us examine the historical drawdown data in detail to contrast the current event with the historical averages.

The table shows that the current drawdown is 39.4 times longer than the average drawdown and 6.3 times longer than the average of comparable deep drops. While a typical drawdown of 19 days is resolved quickly, a drop exceeding 20% historically takes nearly four months to resolve. The current 749-day period represents an unprecedented extension of this recovery timeline.

Historical Valuation Comparison

As of the valuation snapshot on 2026-08-15, the asset's price drawdown contrasts with its historical valuation multiples, which remain elevated relative to its own past. The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio stands at 1.4, placing it in the 83rd percentile of its own daily P/S record since 2019-12-20, which is above its historical median of 0.87. Similarly, the EV-to-EBITDA ratio of 8.1 sits in the 78th percentile of its own daily record since 2021-07-29, compared to its historical median of 7.2.

To provide a clearer picture of where these valuation multiples sit within the asset's own historical range, we can examine the specific percentile ranks and historical medians.

The data shows that despite a -27.8% decline in price from the all-time high, the valuation multiples remain in the upper quintile of their historical distributions. The P/S ratio of 1.4 is 60.9% higher than its historical median of 0.87. The EV-to-EBITDA ratio of 8.1 is 12.5% higher than its historical median of 7.2. This indicates that the price correction has not compressed the valuation multiples back to their historical midpoints, as the multiples remain elevated relative to the asset's own history.

Data Limits and Methodology Context

Our analysis relies strictly on verified price, drawdown, severity, and historical duration data. We do not incorporate qualitative market narratives, analyst opinions, or external macroeconomic factors into this assessment. The Drawdown Severity Score™ is a purely mathematical representation of price action relative to historical benchmarks.

By limiting our scope to quantitative price history, we provide an objective framework for evaluating risk. This methodology avoids the subjective biases often found in market commentary. The historical comparison of 60 drawdown events offers a statistical basis for understanding the current price behavior, but it does not predict future performance.

The Drawdown Severity Score™ scales from 1 to 10 based on the depth and duration of the current drawdown relative to the asset's historical distribution. A score of 5.0 (Significant) sits in the yellow zone, which represents a moderate to high risk level. The previous red zone classification represents the highest risk tier (scores 7.0 to 10.0), indicating that the asset was experiencing an extreme downside outlier event. The transition to the yellow zone suggests that while the drawdown remains substantial, the velocity of the decline has stabilized relative to historical norms.

Key Levels and Severity Thresholds to Monitor

To fully erase the current drawdown and return to its all-time high of $131.27, Weatherford must rise $36.48 from its current price of $94.79. This represents a required gain of 38.48% from the current level. Investors tracking the recovery can monitor specific price thresholds that correspond to changes in the drawdown percentage.

A move to a drawdown of -20% would require the price to reach $105.02, which is an 10.79% increase from the current price. Conversely, if the stock experiences renewed downward pressure and falls back below $90.00, the drawdown would deepen beyond -31.4%, potentially pushing the severity score back into the red zone.

The table below outlines the key recovery milestones, their corresponding drawdown levels, the required return from the current price of $94.79, and the implications for the severity classification.

The transition from the red zone to the yellow zone indicates a reduction in immediate downside momentum, but the 749-day duration highlights the persistent nature of this correction. We will continue to monitor the Drawdown Severity Score™ as new price data becomes available.