Weatherford Down 29% in 750 Days. What History Says

Weatherford International Down 29% in 750 Days. What History Says

Weatherford International plc (WFRD) is down 29% from its all-time high as of August 17, 2026, and has been in this drawdown for 750 days. The Drawdown Severity Score™ stands at 5.2, placing the stock in the red zone after crossing over from the yellow zone. In 5 comparable prior drops of 20% or more, the asset took an average of 119 days to recover.

Analyzing the Shift to the Red Zone

Our data shows that WFRD officially crossed from the yellow zone to the red zone as of August 17, 2026. This transition is marked by a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 5.2, which indicates a strong level of historical drawdown severity. The stock closed at $93.08 as of August 17, 2026, representing a -29.1% decline from its all-time high of $131.27.

This decline represents a total dollar loss of $38.19 per share from the peak. In percentage terms, the -29.1% drop is a significant divergence from the historical average drawdown depth of -6.8% across all 60 recorded drawdown events. The current decline is more than four times deeper than this historical average, illustrating the unusual depth of the current downward move.

The duration of the current decline also represents an extreme historical outlier. WFRD has remained in this drawdown state for 750 days, whereas the average duration for all historical drawdowns is only 19 days. This means the current decline has lasted more than 39 times longer than the average historical pullback for this asset.

Historical Precedent: The 5 Prior 20% Drawdowns

To understand the historical context of the current decline, we look at previous instances where WFRD experienced a drawdown of 20% or greater. Our database shows that this threshold has been breached exactly 5 times in the asset's history. Out of 60 total drawdown events, only 8.33% have reached this level of severity, making the current drop a rare event.

In those 5 comparable historical instances, the average recovery duration was 119 days. The current drawdown duration of 750 days is more than six times longer than the historical average recovery time for drops of this magnitude. This prolonged duration highlights how the current cycle differs from previous historical patterns.

The following table contrasts the current drawdown metrics against the historical averages for all drawdowns and the subset of comparable 20% or greater declines:

The data shows that while a 20% drop is historically rare, the time spent in the current drawdown is even more unusual. The historical average of 119 days suggests that past deep corrections resolved much more rapidly than the current 750-day period. This extended timeline indicates that the stock is experiencing an unusually prolonged period of downward pressure relative to its historical record.

Valuation Metrics Relative to Historical Ranges

To put the current price performance in perspective, we analyze the asset's internal valuation metrics relative to its own history. Our database tracks daily valuation percentiles to show where current multiples sit within the stock's historical trading range. This context helps clarify whether the price decline has brought valuation multiples back to historical medians.

As of the valuation snapshot on 2026-08-16, our data shows a contrast between the current price drawdown and the asset's internal valuation metrics. The Price-to-Sales ratio stands at 1.4, placing it in the 83rd percentile of its own daily history since 2019-12-20, which is above its historical median of 0.87. Concurrently, the EV-to-EBITDA ratio is 8.1, representing the 78th percentile of its own daily history since 2021-07-29, compared to its historical median of 7.2. These percentiles indicate that despite the -29.1% price drawdown, the valuation multiples remain elevated relative to the asset's own historical ranges.

Understanding the Drawdown Severity Score™

The Drawdown Severity Score™ is a proprietary metric designed to quantify the intensity of an asset's decline. It operates on a scale that categorizes drawdowns into distinct color-coded zones based on depth, duration, and historical frequency. A severity score of 5.2 places WFRD in the red zone, which represents a strong level of severity.

The transition from the yellow zone to the red zone indicates that the drawdown has bypassed moderate historical thresholds. The yellow zone typically represents normal to elevated volatility, whereas the red zone indicates that the price decline has entered a phase of historical extremity. For WFRD, this transition occurred as the duration extended to 750 days and the price remained depressed at $93.08.

By analyzing the severity score, investors can assess where the current price action sits within the stock's historical distribution of declines. A score of 5.2 reflects that the combination of a -29.1% drop and a 750-day duration is highly anomalous for this ticker. This score provides a quantitative framework for evaluating risk without relying on subjective market narratives.

Methodology and Analytical Limits

Our analysis relies strictly on historical price and drawdown data recorded for WFRD. We do not incorporate external qualitative factors, such as corporate earnings reports, analyst recommendations, macroeconomic indicators, or industry news. The scope of this evaluation is limited to mathematical patterns derived from the asset's trading history.

By focusing solely on price and drawdown metrics, we provide a clean, data-driven perspective on historical risk. This approach avoids the subjective assumptions often found in fundamental or technical narratives. However, it also means this analysis does not account for changes in the company's business model, capital structure, or broader market conditions that may influence future price movements.

The historical comparisons presented here assume that past price behavior provides a useful framework for understanding current declines. While history offers valuable context, every market cycle possesses unique characteristics. The 60 historical drawdown events analyzed provide a statistical baseline, but they do not guarantee how the current 750-day drawdown will ultimately resolve.

Key Thresholds and Metrics to Monitor

To evaluate whether WFRD is beginning to stabilize or face further downward pressure, several key metrics should be monitored. The first is the Drawdown Severity Score™, which sits at 5.2 as of August 17, 2026. A decrease in this score would indicate that the stock is beginning to recover, while an increase would signal that the drawdown is deepening or extending further in duration.

The second metric to track is the exact drawdown percentage of -29.1%. If the price falls below the level of $93.08 recorded on August 17, 2026, the drawdown will deepen, potentially pushing the asset further into the red zone. Conversely, a sustained move toward the all-time high of $131.27 is required to begin closing the drawdown gap.

Finally, the duration of 750 days remains a critical marker. Because this duration is already an extreme statistical outlier compared to the 19-day historical average, any further extension of this timeline will continue to set new precedents for the stock. Monitoring the transition of the asset back into the yellow zone or eventually the green zone will provide data-driven indicators of a potential trend shift.