ON Semiconductor Is Down 43%. What History Says

ON Semiconductor Is Down 43% in 81 Days. What History Says

ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) is down 43% from its all-time high as of September 11, 2026, and has been in this drawdown for 81 days. The Drawdown Severity Score™ stands at 6.6, keeping the stock in the red zone. In 3 comparable prior drops of this depth, the average duration of the drawdown was 2806 days.

Current Drawdown and Severity Score Status

As of September 11, 2026, ON is trading at $76.14, representing a -43.1% decline from its all-time high of $133.93. The stock remains in the red zone, indicating a critical level of price distress. Our data shows the current Drawdown Severity Score™ is 6.6, which is classified as Very Strong.

The stock entered this drawdown period 81 days ago and continues to experience high downward pressure. The previous zone classification was also the red zone, meaning the stock has not yet established a recovery path out of this high-risk territory.

Understanding the Drawdown Severity Score™ Methodology

To evaluate the current decline of ON, we rely on the Drawdown Severity Score™, which measures price distress on a scale from 0 to 10. This proprietary metric analyzes both the speed and the depth of a price drop relative to an asset's unique historical behavior. By evaluating these factors, the score classifies the stock into specific risk zones, with the red zone representing the most severe level of price distress.

Our data shows that ON has remained in this red zone, with its current score of 6.6 reflecting persistent downward pressure. This score indicates that the current drop is statistically extreme compared to the stock's typical historical pullbacks.

How the Current 81-Day Duration Compares to the Historical Distribution

The duration of a drawdown is a critical factor in understanding when a stock might establish a bottom. For ON, the current drawdown has lasted 81 days as of September 11, 2026. When we look at all 48 historical drawdown events, the average duration is 197 days.

This means the current 81-day decline is still in its relatively early stages compared to the historical average duration of all drawdowns. However, because the depth has already reached -43.1%, the speed of this decline is far greater than what the stock typically experiences during a standard pullback.

Detailed Analysis of the 48 Historical Drawdowns

A deeper look at the 48 historical drawdown events reveals that the vast majority of these declines are minor pullbacks. The average maximum drawdown across all 48 events is -11.9%. This indicates that ON typically experiences frequent but shallow declines that resolve in under 200 days.

Out of these 48 events, only 3 have crossed the -40% threshold, representing just 6.25% of all historical drawdowns. The remaining 45 events, or 93.75% of the historical record, were successfully resolved before reaching this level of severity. This distribution highlights how rare and severe the current -43.1% drawdown is for the stock.

Historical Recovery Timelines for Deep Declines

When ON breaches the -40% threshold, the recovery timeline changes dramatically. In the 3 comparable prior drops of this depth, the average duration of the drawdown was 2806 days. This average duration is more than 14 times longer than the 197-day average for all 48 historical drawdowns.

We must note that this 2806-day figure is based on a small sample size of only 3 events, which limits its predictive value. However, it demonstrates that when ON enters a deep correction, it has historically taken several years to recover its previous highs.

The table shows a stark contrast between a typical pullback and a major structural drawdown for ON. While a typical drawdown of -11.9% resolves in approximately 197 days, deeper drops have historically persisted for multiple years.

Valuation Context and Historical Multiples

We contrast this price decline with the asset's own historical valuation multiples to provide historical context. As of the valuation snapshot date of 2026-09-10, the Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio for ON is 4.4, which sits in the 94th percentile of its own daily P/S record since 2006-09-11, where the historical median is 1.7. Similarly, the EV-to-EBITDA ratio is 22.9, placing it in the 96th percentile of its own daily EV-to-EBITDA record since 2006-09-11, compared to a historical median of 10.1. Despite the -43.1% price drawdown, these valuation multiples remain historically high relative to the asset's own historical range.

Data Limits and Causal Claims

This drawdown analysis relies strictly on verified price, drawdown, severity, and historical duration data. We do not attribute the current price movement or the valuation multiples to specific external market events, macroeconomic factors, or corporate announcements. Our analysis does not evaluate the fundamental business health of ON or broader semiconductor industry trends. We present the historical facts and current metrics to help investors understand the statistical context of the current decline.

What to Watch

Investors tracking ON should monitor specific severity thresholds and price levels to identify any shifts in the drawdown structure. A move in the severity score below 6.0 would indicate a reduction in downward momentum, though the stock would need a 75.9% price increase to reclaim its all-time high of $133.93 and exit the drawdown entirely. Conversely, if the price falls below $76.14, the drawdown will deepen further, potentially pushing the severity score higher and extending the duration of this red zone event.