MasTec Is Down 15%. What History Says About the Recovery

MasTec's 66-Day Drawdown: What History Suggests

MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) is down 14.8% from its all-time high as of July 10, 2026, and has been in this drawdown for 66 days. The Drawdown Severity Score™ stands at 2.4, placing it in the Moderately Elevated (yellow) zone. In 21 comparable prior drops of 10% or more, MasTec took an average of 657 days to recover.

MasTec's Shift from Green to Yellow Zone

The transition from the green zone to the yellow zone marks a shift in the price stability of MasTec. As of July 10, 2026, the stock has traded down to $372.89, which is 14.8% below its all-time high of $437.51. This correction has developed over a period of 66 days, indicating a persistent downward trend rather than a brief intraday fluctuation.

Our data shows that the green zone represents periods of minimal drawdown or rapid recovery, whereas the transition to the yellow zone indicates that the severity score has crossed key historical thresholds. A Drawdown Severity Score™ of 2.4 reflects a moderately elevated risk level based on how the asset has behaved during previous corrections.

Understanding the Drawdown Severity Score™

The Drawdown Severity Score™ is a proprietary metric designed to quantify the intensity of an asset's current price decline relative to its entire historical record. For MasTec, this record includes a total of 118 historical drawdown events. By analyzing these past occurrences, we can contextualize the current 14.8% decline.

Historically, MasTec has experienced an average maximum drawdown of -9.1% across all 118 recorded events. The average duration of these drawdowns is 123 days. The current decline of 14.8% has already surpassed the historical average depth of -9.1% by 5.7 percentage points, though its current duration of 66 days remains below the historical average duration of 123 days. This suggests that while the current drop is deeper than a typical pullback, it is still early in terms of historical duration.

A severity score of 2.4 highlights that the current price action is moving outside of normal historical boundaries. When the severity score enters the yellow zone, it serves as a quantitative signal that the drawdown has exceeded routine fluctuations.

Distribution of Historical Drawdowns

Analyzing the distribution of the 118 historical drawdown events helps put the current move in perspective. Of the 118 historical events, only 21 reached the 10% threshold. This means that approximately 17.8% of all historical drawdowns for MasTec reached or exceeded the severity of the current decline.

The remaining 97 drawdown events, representing approximately 82.2% of occurrences, were minor pullbacks of less than 10% that resolved relatively quickly. This distribution confirms that a 14.8% drawdown is an outlier event, occurring in fewer than one-fifth of all historical declines.

By understanding this distribution, we can see why the Drawdown Severity Score™ has reached 2.4. The current decline has moved past the 82.2% of historical drawdowns that represent routine market noise.

Historical Comparison of 10% Drawdowns

A -14.8% drawdown is a relatively rare event for MasTec. Our historical database shows that MasTec has experienced a drawdown of 10% or more only 21 times in its entire history.

These 21 events represent the most severe corrections the stock has faced. When we isolate these specific 10% or greater drawdowns, the historical recovery timeline changes dramatically compared to the broader set of 118 drawdowns.

The average duration of these 21 comparable drops is 657 days. This means that once MasTec enters a drawdown of this magnitude, it has historically taken nearly 22 months on average to fully recover and establish a new all-time high.

The table below outlines how the current drawdown on July 10, 2026, compares to the historical averages of these 10% or greater drops:

Comparing the current 66-day duration to the historical average of 657 days reveals a substantial gap. If the current drawdown follows the historical average of these 21 comparable drops, the recovery phase could extend well beyond the current two-month window.

Valuation Context in Historical Perspective

As of 2026-07-10, MasTec's valuation multiples sit at historically high levels relative to its own past record, despite the price drawdown. The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio stands at 2.0, placing it in the 99th percentile of its own daily history since 2006-07-10, compared to a historical median of 0.64. Similarly, the EV-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is 27.0, also in the 99th percentile of its own daily history since 2006-07-10, compared to a historical median of 9.5.

Methodology and Data Limits

This analysis is strictly quantitative and relies exclusively on historical price, drawdown, and valuation data. We do not incorporate external market narratives, company earnings, macroeconomic events, or qualitative analyst expectations to explain these movements. Our focus remains solely on the mathematical history of MasTec's price declines and how the current drawdown aligns with historical precedents. By limiting our analysis to verified data, we provide a consistent framework for evaluating risk without introducing subjective interpretations.

What to Watch Moving Forward

Investors tracking MasTec should monitor several key thresholds to see if the current drawdown stabilizes or worsens. The first marker is the -14.8% drawdown level: any further price decline will push the stock deeper into the yellow zone and could elevate the severity score toward the red zone.

The second marker is the duration of the current decline, which stands at 66 days. Since the historical average duration for 10% or greater drawdowns is 657 days, we will monitor whether MTZ can buck this historical trend and stage an early recovery.

Finally, we will track the Drawdown Severity Score™ itself. A decline in the severity score back toward the green zone would indicate stabilizing price action, while a rising score would signal that the current correction is gaining momentum.