MasTec Is Down 13%. What History Says About MTZ.

MasTec Is Down 13% in 60 Days. What History Says.

MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) is down 13% from its all-time high as of July 8, 2026, and has been in this drawdown for approximately 60 days. The Drawdown Severity Score™ stands at 2.0, keeping the stock in the yellow zone. In 21 comparable prior drops of 10% or more, the stock took an average of 657 days to recover.

Current Drawdown Status and Severity

The price of MasTec, Inc. closed at $382.90 on July 8, 2026, marking a -12.5% decline from its all-time high of $437.51. This price action has kept the asset within the yellow zone, indicating a moderately elevated risk profile. The current duration of this drawdown stands at 64 days.

Our data shows the Drawdown Severity Score™ remains at 2.0. This severity score indicates that while the stock has experienced a pullback, the decline has not yet entered the red zone of extreme historical stress. The yellow zone classification serves as an intermediate risk tier, reflecting a moderate departure from peak pricing.

Historical Drawdown Benchmarks

To understand the current -12.5% decline, we must compare it to the historical record of MasTec, Inc. over its entire trading history. Our database has tracked a total of 118 historical drawdown events for this asset. Across all of these 118 events, the average maximum drawdown was -9.1%.

The average drawdown duration across all historical events is 123 days. Comparing these benchmarks to the current event reveals that the current -12.5% pullback is deeper than the historical average maximum drawdown. However, the current duration of 64 days remains well below the historical average duration of 123 days.

Analysis of 10% Plus Drawdown Events

While the average drawdown for MasTec, Inc. is -9.1%, deeper pullbacks represent a different statistical category. Out of the 118 total drawdown events, the stock has dropped 10% or more from its peak exactly 21 times. This means approximately 17.8% of all historical drawdowns have reached or exceeded the severity of the current decline.

When the stock crosses this 10% threshold, the recovery timeline historically extends. The average duration of these 21 comparable drops is 657 days. This is more than five times longer than the average duration of all drawdowns combined, showing that deeper pullbacks require significantly more time to resolve.

The large difference between the overall average duration of 123 days and the 10%+ average duration of 657 days is statistically important. It indicates that once MasTec, Inc. enters a double-digit drawdown, it historically enters a prolonged period of consolidation before reclaiming its prior highs. The current 64-day duration represents only a small fraction of that historical 657-day recovery average.

Valuation Context and Historical Multiples

As of the valuation snapshot on 2026-07-07, the price drawdown of -12.5% contrasts with historically high valuation multiples for the asset. The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio stands at 2.0, placing it in the 99th percentile of its own daily history since 2006-07-06, compared to a historical median of 0.64. Similarly, the EV-to-EBITDA ratio is 26.7, also ranking in the 99th percentile of its daily history since 2006-07-06, well above its historical median of 9.5.

Data Limits and Methodology

This analysis is strictly quantitative and relies exclusively on price and drawdown history. We do not incorporate corporate earnings, management changes, industry trends, or broader macroeconomic data into these calculations. The historical comparison assumes that past price patterns provide statistical context, but it does not guarantee future outcomes.

By focusing purely on price action, we avoid the subjective narratives that often accompany market pullbacks. The Drawdown Severity Score™ is a proprietary metric designed to gauge current risk relative to the asset's own historical volatility. This data-only approach provides a clear view of where the stock sits within its historical distribution of declines.

Key Levels and Indicators to Watch

Investors tracking MasTec, Inc. can monitor several specific price and drawdown levels to gauge changes in risk. A recovery back toward the all-time high of $437.51 would require a price increase of approximately 14.3% from the current level of $382.90. Such a recovery would systematically lower the Drawdown Severity Score™ and eventually transition the stock out of the yellow zone.

Conversely, further downward movement would test deeper historical thresholds. If the current drawdown extends to -15%, the price would decline to approximately $371.88. A breach of this level would mark a deeper departure from the historical average and could cause the severity score to increase, signaling elevated risk.