Zillow Is Down 84%. What History Says About Z Stock

Zillow Has Been Falling for 1,882 Days. What History Says

Zillow Group, Inc. (Z) is down -84.4% from its all-time high as of June 26, 2026, having remained in the red zone for 1,882 days. The Drawdown Severity Score™ has adjusted to 14.3, which is classified as Historic. In the 2 comparable prior drops of 50% or more in our database, the stock took an average of 507 days to recover.

Zillow's Current Drawdown Profile as of June 26, 2026

The price of Zillow closed at $31.15 on June 26, 2026. This price represents an -84.4% decline from its all-time high of $199.90. This level of decline places the asset deep within the red zone, indicating extreme historical distress.

To understand the scale of this drawdown, we must examine the recovery math. A decline of -84.4% requires a subsequent price appreciation of 541.73% just to return to the previous peak. This mathematical asymmetry is a defining characteristic of deep drawdowns, as the percentage gain required to recover always exceeds the percentage lost.

The duration of this drawdown has now reached 1,882 days. This means the stock has been trading below its peak of $199.90 for over five years. The prolonged nature of this decline highlights that the stock has struggled to establish a sustained upward trajectory since reaching its peak.

Our data shows that the current Drawdown Severity Score™ is 14.3. This score is categorized as Historic, which is the most severe designation within our tracking framework. The classification indicates that the combination of depth and duration has surpassed typical correction boundaries.

Peak Severity and Duration Context

The current severity score of 14.3 is a reflection of both the magnitude of the price drop and the length of time the asset has remained depressed. When an asset enters the Historic category, it means the drawdown is behaving as an extreme outlier relative to the asset's historical norm.

To put this in context, we can look at the average behavior of Zillow during its trading history. Across all 41 total historical drawdown events recorded in our database, the average maximum drawdown was only -8.1%. The current drawdown of -84.4% is more than ten times larger than this historical average.

The duration comparison is equally stark. The average drawdown duration across all historical events is 47 days. The current drawdown has lasted 1,882 days, which is nearly forty times longer than the historical average. This indicates that the current period of underperformance is fundamentally different from the typical short-term pullbacks the stock has historically experienced.

By staying in the red zone, the stock continues to signal elevated risk. The transition from a standard pullback to a prolonged, multi-year drawdown changes the risk profile for investors tracking the asset.

Valuation Multiples vs. Historical Medians

As of the valuation snapshot date of 2026-06-26, the Price-to-Sales ratio (P/S) for Z stands at 2.6, which ranks in the 1st percentile of its own daily P/S record since 2015-08-03, compared to its historical median of 6.6. Similarly, the EV-to-EBITDA ratio (EV/EBITDA) is 23.6, placing it in the 1st percentile of its own daily EV/EBITDA record since 2017-08-08, compared to its historical median of 80.9. This positioning indicates that both valuation multiples are historically low relative to the asset's own past trading record, reflecting the depth of the price drawdown.

Historical Comparison of Major Drawdowns

To understand how drawdowns of this magnitude typically resolve, we look at comparable events in Zillow's trading history. Our database tracks major drawdowns where the price fell by 50% or more from its peak.

According to our data, Zillow has experienced exactly 2 prior drawdowns of 50% or more. This is a small sample size, which is an important caveat when analyzing historical averages for this asset. With only 2 historical events, the average recovery metrics may not represent a statistically robust projection for future behavior.

In those 2 comparable prior drops, the average duration of the drawdown was 507 days. The current drawdown of 1,882 days has already lasted more than three times longer than that historical average. This suggests that the current decline is far more persistent than previous major sell-offs.

The table below contrasts the current drawdown metrics against Zillow's historical drawdown averages.

The comparison demonstrates that while Zillow has historically recovered from pullbacks within an average of 47 days, major structural declines of 50% or more require significantly longer periods to resolve. The current 1,882-day duration indicates that the stock has entered uncharted territory relative to its past recovery timelines.

Analysis Limitations and Data Scope

This analysis is based entirely on historical price action, drawdown calculations, and valuation multiples. We do not incorporate external market factors, industry trends, company earnings reports, or macroeconomic developments.

Our data shows the historical patterns of Zillow's price movements, but these patterns do not guarantee future performance. The stock's current position in the red zone and its Drawdown Severity Score™ of 14.3 are mathematical representations of past price behavior.

Furthermore, we must emphasize the limitation of the small sample size. Because Zillow has only experienced 2 prior drawdowns of 50% or more, the average duration of 507 days is derived from a very limited dataset. This limitation means that the average may not be highly predictive of how the current 1,882-day drawdown will eventually resolve.

Investors should use these metrics as historical context rather than a definitive roadmap. The data highlights the scale of the current deviation from historical norms but does not forecast specific price targets or recovery timelines.

Severity Thresholds and What to Watch

To evaluate whether Zillow is beginning to stabilize, we must monitor specific severity thresholds and price levels. The current Drawdown Severity Score™ of 14.3 is firmly in the Historic category, and the stock remains in the red zone.

A reduction in the drawdown depth is the primary mechanism that would lower the severity score. For example, if the stock price rises from $31.15 to $50.00, the drawdown would shrink to -75.0%. A further price increase to $100.00 would reduce the drawdown to -50.0%, which is the threshold for a major historical drop.

Conversely, if the price falls below $31.15, the drawdown will deepen beyond -84.4%. This would likely increase the severity score and extend the duration of the current drawdown past 1,882 days.

We track these thresholds continuously to identify when the asset transitions into a different severity zone. Monitoring these exact levels provides objective data points for assessing the stock's ongoing risk profile.