YUM Is Down 7% in 80 Days. What History Says Now

YUM Is Down 7% in 82 Days. What History Says About Its Recovery

Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) is now down 7% from its all-time high as of June 26, 2026, having just exited the yellow zone after 82 days in drawdown. The Drawdown Severity Score™ has improved to 1.5, placing the stock in the green zone. In 44 comparable historical drops of 5% or more, YUM took an average of 191 days to resolve the drawdown.

Yum! Brands Transitions to the Green Zone

As of June 26, 2026, YUM has transitioned from the yellow zone to the green zone. This shift indicates a reduction in the asset's near-term risk profile based on its historical price behavior. The current price of $156.36 represents a 7.0% discount from its all-time high of $168.16.

The improvement in the Drawdown Severity Score™ to 1.5, which corresponds to a "Slightly Elevated" risk status, marks a shift from the moderately elevated risk of the yellow zone. The stock spent a portion of its current 82-day drawdown under heightened alert. Crossing back into the green zone suggests that the rate of decline has moderated and the price action is stabilizing within historically typical boundaries.

While a green zone classification indicates lower immediate risk, it does not imply that the drawdown is completely over. The stock remains in a drawdown state, and history shows that recoveries from levels of this depth can require a prolonged period of consolidation.

The Anatomy of YUM's Current Drawdown

To understand the significance of the current 7.0% pullback, we must compare it to YUM's complete historical record. Our database has tracked a total of 209 historical drawdown events for YUM.

Historically, the average maximum drawdown for YUM is -4.2%, with an average drawdown duration of 46 days. The current drawdown of -7.0% is deeper than the historical average by 2.8 percentage points. Additionally, the current duration of 82 days exceeds the historical average duration of 46 days by 36 days.

These metrics explain why the stock was previously flagged in the yellow zone. The pullback has been both deeper and more prolonged than a typical YUM correction. The transition to the green zone suggests that the stock is beginning to form a base, even though it remains below its historical averages for recovery speed.

Valuation Context and Historical Multiples

To analyze where this price drawdown sits relative to the asset's historical valuation, we examine YUM's valuation multiples on 2026-06-26. The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio stands at 5.0, placing it in the 64th percentile of its own daily P/S record since 2006-06-26, compared to a historical median of 2.2. Meanwhile, the EV-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is 18.3, sitting in the 60th percentile of its own daily record since 2006-06-26, against a historical median of 12.3. Both metrics show that while the stock has experienced a 7.0% price drawdown, its valuation multiples remain within their typical historical ranges, sitting slightly above their long-term historical medians.

Historical Comparisons: How Prior 5% Drops Resolved

Our historical data reveals that YUM has experienced a drawdown of 5% or more from its all-time high a total of 44 times. These 44 comparable events provide a statistically relevant baseline for how the current drawdown might resolve.

The average duration of these 44 comparable drops is 191 days. This is substantially longer than the 46-day average duration seen across all 209 drawdown events in YUM's history. This discrepancy highlights a critical characteristic of YUM's price structure: once a pullback breaches the 5% threshold, the correction tends to become highly prolonged, taking more than four times longer to resolve than a minor dip.

At 82 days into the current drawdown, YUM is still in the earlier stages of this historical window. If the current correction follows the average path of the prior 44 comparable drops, the stock could spend another 109 days in drawdown before fully reclaiming its all-time high of $168.16.

The severity score of 1.5 indicates that the immediate downward momentum has slowed, but the historical average duration of 191 days suggests that patience is often required during corrections of this scale. Past recoveries show that YUM frequently undergoes a multi-month rounding bottom or consolidation phase before mounting a successful breakout back to new highs.

Understanding the Drawdown Severity Score™ Zones

The Drawdown Severity Score™ is a proprietary risk assessment metric designed to categorize the intensity of an asset's pullback. By evaluating both the depth and the duration of a drawdown against the asset's entire historical price record, the model assigns a score from 0.0 to 5.0. This score determines the asset's current risk zone.

The green zone, spanning scores from 0.0 to 2.0, represents a low to slightly elevated risk environment. When an asset is in this zone, its price action is behaving in a manner consistent with normal, healthy market fluctuations or early-stage stabilization following a deeper correction. YUM's current severity score of 1.5 falls squarely within this range.

The yellow zone, spanning scores from 2.1 to 3.5, represents moderately elevated risk. This zone indicates that a drawdown is lasting longer or dropping deeper than typical historical patterns, signaling that the asset is experiencing structural selling pressure. YUM's recent exit from this zone suggests that this heightened pressure has begun to subside.

The red zone, spanning scores from 3.6 to 5.0, represents high risk. Red zone status indicates a severe correction that has broken historical support levels, often preceding a prolonged bear market for the individual asset. YUM managed to avoid entering this high-risk territory during its current 82-day decline.

Data Limits and Methodology

This analysis is strictly quantitative and relies exclusively on verified price, drawdown, and severity metrics. We do not incorporate external market narratives, macroeconomic indicators, interest rate policies, or corporate earnings reports.

Our proprietary model operates on the principle that historical price action and drawdown distributions contain structural data about asset risk. By focusing solely on these objective historical data points, we eliminate the subjective bias often found in traditional market commentary. This analysis uses price and drawdown history only. We do not make causal claims about why YUM's price changed or predict specific future macroeconomic events that might influence the stock.

What to Watch Next

To monitor YUM's progress as it navigates the green zone, investors should track several key price and drawdown thresholds. These levels will dictate whether the stock continues to stabilize or risks slipping back into a higher severity classification.

• The -5.0% Drawdown Level ($159.75): Reclaiming this price point would represent a significant step toward a full recovery. Historically, moving back above a -5% drawdown reduces the likelihood of an extended correction.
• The Current Drawdown Level (-7.0% / $156.36): This level represents the current baseline. If YUM falls below $156.36, the drawdown will deepen, potentially pushing the Drawdown Severity Score™ back up toward the yellow zone threshold.
• The -10.0% Drawdown Level ($151.34): A breach of this level would represent a severe escalation of the current pullback. Falling to $151.34 would almost certainly trigger a transition back into the yellow zone, indicating a higher-risk structural correction.

We will continue to track YUM's price action and update its Drawdown Severity Score™ daily. Investors can use these objective benchmarks to evaluate the stock's risk profile without relying on speculative market forecasts.