Vulcan Materials Is Down 9%. Here Is What History Says

Vulcan Materials Is Down 9%. Here Is What History Says.

History suggests Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) may face a prolonged recovery from its current 8.9% drawdown; while its immediate downward momentum has stabilized, comparable historical drops of 5% or more have taken an average of 266 days to resolve. As of June 16, 2026, the stock has transitioned from the yellow risk zone to the green risk zone, indicating a reduction in near-term downside acceleration even as it remains below its peak. This transition signals that the sharpest phase of the sell-off may have passed, though history indicates a full return to prior highs is often a multi-month process.

Tracking the Shift from Yellow to Green Risk Zones

Our data shows the transition from the yellow zone to the green zone represents a deceleration in selling pressure rather than an immediate return to new highs. When an asset sits in the yellow zone, it reflects an elevated risk profile where the velocity of the decline exceeds historical norms. The migration of the Drawdown Severity Score™ to 1.7, which indicates a slightly elevated risk profile, suggests that the sharpest phase of the downward momentum has subsided.

This stabilization phase is critical for long-term price action. While the asset has spent nearly three months working through this correction, the move to a green zone status indicates that the rate of decline has flattened. Historically, when a stock stabilizes in this manner, it begins a base-building process where price volatility contracts, allowing the asset to establish a firmer foundation.

VMC's Current Drawdown and Severity Score™ Context

As of June 16, 2026, VMC trades at a current price of $300.83, representing an 8.9% drawdown from its all-time high of $330.26. The current Drawdown Severity Score™ of 1.7 places the stock in the green zone, indicating that the severity of the drop is now considered slightly elevated but no longer critical. This score is calculated by comparing the current decline's speed, depth, and duration against the asset's complete historical performance.

Understanding the progression of a severity score helps put the current 8.9% decline into perspective. In a typical market cycle, a stock will experience multiple minor pullbacks that register very low severity scores. When a pullback extends beyond the average historical depth, the severity score climbs, shifting the asset into the yellow or red zones. The current score of 1.7 reflects that while VMC remains in a drawdown, the historical risk of further immediate, rapid deterioration has statistically decreased based on past patterns.

The duration of the current decline has reached 87 days as of June 16, 2026. This means the stock has spent nearly three months trading below its record high. While an 8.9% drop may feel substantial to market participants, analyzing the duration alongside the depth provides a more complete picture of the stock's stability. A slow, grinding decline often carries different risk characteristics than a sudden, sharp crash, and the current severity score reflects this stabilization.

Valuation Context and Historical Multiples

To fully understand the current drawdown, we must examine where VMC's valuation ratios sit relative to its historical record. As of the valuation snapshot on 2026-06-15, the Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio for VMC stands at 4.8, which ranks in the 91st percentile of its own daily history since 2006-06-15. This is historically high compared to its historical median P/S ratio of 3.4. Conversely, the EV-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is 16.8, placing it in the 33rd percentile of its daily historical range since 2006-06-15, which is below its historical median of 18.4.

This divergence between a historically high P/S multiple and a moderate EV/EBITDA multiple highlights a complex fundamental backdrop. These valuation extremes often influence the duration and structure of historical drawdown cycles. When top-line valuation multiples remain elevated relative to history, even during a price pullback, it can prolong the time required for the stock to fully recover, as the asset must often grow into its multiple or experience a longer period of price consolidation.

Historical Drawdown Comparisons and Recovery Durations

Analyzing VMC's complete historical record since 2006 provides deep context on how the stock behaves during periods of retrenchment. Throughout its trading history, VMC has experienced a total of 204 historical drawdown events. The average maximum drawdown across all of these recorded events is -5.3%, with an average drawdown duration of 69 days.

However, the current 8.9% decline represents a more severe class of pullback. Our data shows that VMC has dropped by 5% or more from its peak a total of 48 times. When we look at these comparable declines, the recovery process is significantly more drawn out. The average duration of these comparable 5%+ drops is 266 days, indicating that deeper pullbacks require substantial time to resolve.

To better visualize how the current pullback compares to historical averages, we can examine the key metrics side by side.

The historical data suggests that while VMC's current 8.9% drawdown is deeper than its historical average max drawdown of -5.3%, it is a well-documented type of event that has occurred 48 times in the past. The crucial takeaway from this history is the duration. With the current drawdown lasting 87 days, it remains well below the 266-day average recovery time observed during previous drops of 5% or more. This historical baseline indicates that investors tracking VMC should prepare for a potentially extended period of consolidation before the stock achieves a full recovery to its prior highs.

Scope and Limitations of the Drawdown Analysis

This analysis relies exclusively on verified historical price, drawdown, severity, and valuation data. We do not incorporate external market narratives, macroeconomic forecasts, analyst ratings, or corporate earnings reports into this model. The metrics presented reflect purely mathematical and statistical relationships derived from VMC's price behavior and its historical valuation multiples since 2006.

By focusing solely on price history and drawdown behavior, we avoid the speculative assumptions that often accompany market commentary. This methodology provides an objective, data-driven framework for assessing risk, but it does not account for forward-looking operational changes, regulatory shifts, or broader macroeconomic events that could alter VMC's future price trajectory.

Key Technical and Severity Thresholds to Monitor

As VMC continues to navigate its current drawdown, several key data points will signal whether the stock is continuing to stabilize or is at risk of another leg down.

First, the Drawdown Severity Score™ of 1.7 must be monitored closely. If the severity score begins to rise back toward the yellow zone, it would indicate that downward momentum is accelerating once again. A shift back to the yellow zone would suggest that the current stabilization phase was temporary and that the stock may test deeper drawdown levels.

Second, the 8.9% drawdown level serves as an important benchmark. If selling pressure resumes and the drawdown deepens beyond -10%, it would push the stock further into the upper tier of its historical pullback distribution. Conversely, a steady reduction in the drawdown percentage toward -5% would align the stock closer to its historical average drawdown depth of -5.3%, signaling a standard recovery pattern.

Finally, the duration of the current drawdown, which stands at 87 days as of June 16, 2026, should be weighed against the 266-day historical average for comparable drops. If VMC follows its historical script, the stock may spend several more months in a consolidation phase before making a sustained push back toward its all-time high of $330.26.