TJX Is Down 9%. What History Says About This 27 Day Drop

TJX Just Left the Yellow Zone. What a 9% Pullback Means for the Stock.

The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) has officially moved from the yellow zone to the green zone as of May 18, 2026. Our data shows the stock currently sits at a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 1.8, which we categorize as Slightly Elevated. While the stock remains -8.9% below its all-time high of $165.00, the reduction in severity indicates a shift in the risk profile compared to previous sessions.

Assessing the 27-Day Drawdown

The current price of $150.25 follows a period of heightened volatility that saw the stock enter the yellow zone. This drawdown has lasted 27 days, a duration that remains below the historical average for this ticker. Our data indicates that the Drawdown Severity Score™ peaked during this window before the recent improvement to the 1.8 level.

In our tracking of 320 total historical drawdown events for The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX), we have observed an average maximum drawdown of -4.9%. The current -8.9% decline is nearly double that historical average. This discrepancy is what originally pushed the severity score into the yellow zone, signaling that the price action was deviating from the stock's typical pullback behavior.

Historical Context and Comparable Events

When we look at the historical record for The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX), we identify specific instances where the stock faced significant pressure. Our data shows that the stock has dropped 60% or more exactly 3 times in its history. These are extreme outliers compared to the current -8.9% drawdown, but they provide the necessary ceiling for our risk calculations.

The average duration of those comparable deep drops was 1053 days. We must note that this represents a small sample size of only 3 events, which can skew averages significantly. However, these figures establish the historical "worst-case" scenarios that the Drawdown Severity Score™ uses to weight current price action against the stock's full trading history.

The average drawdown duration for all 320 recorded events is 42 days. With the current drawdown sitting at 27 days, The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) is approaching the timeframe where many of its historical pullbacks have traditionally found a floor or resolved.

Data-Only Analysis Framework

Our analysis of The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) relies exclusively on price and drawdown history. We do not incorporate fundamental data, earnings reports, or external market narratives into this assessment. By focusing on the Drawdown Severity Score™, we aim to provide a purely mathematical view of how the current -8.9% decline compares to the 320 previous drawdowns recorded in our database.

This approach allows us to quantify risk without the influence of sentiment. Our data shows that while the stock has improved its severity standing, it still carries a score of 1.8. This suggests that while the immediate intensity of the sell-off has diminished, the stock has not yet returned to a "normal" or zero-drawdown state.

Monitoring Severity Thresholds

Investors tracking The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) should monitor the $165.00 all-time high as the ultimate recovery target. A move back toward this level would continue to lower the Drawdown Severity Score™ toward the 0.0 mark. Conversely, if the stock were to breach the -10% drawdown level, we would expect to see the severity score trend back toward the yellow zone.

The transition from the yellow zone to the green zone at a 1.8 score is a data-driven milestone. We continue to monitor the duration of this event against the 42-day historical average. Any extension beyond that 42-day mark without a price recovery would represent a statistical outlier for this specific ticker's behavior.