TJX Is Down 11%. What History Says About This Drop

TJX Is Down 11% in 24 Days. What History Says

The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) has shifted from the green zone into the yellow zone as of May 14, 2026. This move follows a period of selling pressure that has pushed the stock to a current price of $147.03, representing a -10.9% drawdown from its all-time high of $165.00. Our data indicates this transition marks a measurable shift in the risk profile for the off-price retail giant.

The stock now carries a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 2.2, which we classify as Moderately Elevated. This shift is notable because TJX had previously been maintaining a position in the green zone, signaling a low-risk drawdown environment. The current 24-day slide has now exceeded the typical "noise" of standard price fluctuations for this asset.

Analyzing the Current Pullback

The current -10.9% decline is more than double the average max drawdown of -4.9% that we see across the 320 total historical drawdown events in our database for TJX. While the stock has been in this drawdown for 24 days, the historical average duration for all pullbacks is 42 days. This suggests that while the depth of the current drop is sharper than average, the timeframe is still relatively short compared to historical norms.

Our data shows that the Drawdown Severity Score™ of 2.2 places this event in the yellow zone, a tier where volatility begins to deviate from the long-term trend. Investors often monitor this zone to determine if a stock is undergoing a standard correction or if it is the beginning of a more prolonged structural decline.

Historical Comparisons and Severity

To understand the current risk, we must look at how The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) behaves during more extreme periods of distress. Our records indicate that TJX has dropped by 60% or more only 3 times in its trading history. These are rare, high-severity events that differ significantly from the current 11% dip.

When the stock enters those deep-drawdown territories, the recovery process is extensive. The average duration of those comparable 60% drops is 1,053 days. It is important to note the small sample size for these extreme events, as only 3 such instances exist in our data set. This small sample size means that while the data is accurate, it represents outlier behavior rather than the standard cyclicality of the stock.

The current Drawdown Severity Score™ of 2.2 does not yet suggest a move toward those historic lows. However, crossing into the yellow zone indicates that the stock is no longer in a "business as usual" retracement.

Retail Sector and Risk Context

The move into the yellow zone for TJX occurs without a specific recent news catalyst from major outlets like Reuters or Bloomberg. In the absence of headline-driven volatility, these moves are often attributed to broader sector rotations or institutional rebalancing within the retail space.

When a dominant player like TJX sees its severity score rise, it can sometimes signal a cooling of sentiment for the off-price retail model. We track these movements to see if competitors like Ross Stores (ROST) or Burlington Stores (BURL) are experiencing similar shifts in their respective Drawdown Severity Score™ metrics.

What to Watch Moving Forward

The primary data point to monitor is whether the Drawdown Severity Score™ stabilizes in the yellow zone or continues to climb toward the orange or red zones. A move back into the green zone would require the stock to recover a significant portion of its 11% loss and demonstrate reduced daily volatility.

Conversely, if the drawdown extends beyond the current 24 days and the price continues to move away from the $165.00 high, the severity score will likely increase. We will continue to track the exact numbers as they evolve. Our data shows that the path to recovery for TJX historically involves a stabilization of the severity score before a sustained move back toward previous highs.