Texas Instruments Is Down 9%. What History Says Now

Texas Instruments Is Down 9% from Its High. What History Says

As of June 11, 2026, Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) has successfully transitioned from the yellow risk zone back to the green zone. This shift follows a 3.48% single-day stock price gain on June 11, 2026, which occurred as broader market reports signaled improving end-market trends in the semiconductor industry according to Yahoo Finance. This movement helped pull the stock out of a brief yellow-zone drawdown, indicating a reduction in near-term risk.

The Path of the Recent Texas Instruments Drawdown

The recent pullback for TXN began after the stock reached its all-time high of $324.89. Over a span of 12 days, the stock experienced selling pressure that pushed its price down to $297.10, resulting in a peak-to-trough drawdown of -8.6% as of June 11, 2026. This brief correction followed a massive run-up where the stock rose 31% over the last 30 days prior to this correction, according to TIKR.com.

During this 12-day decline, the stock crossed into the yellow zone, which indicates elevated risk levels. The transition was driven by rapid profit-taking following the stock's recent exponential gains. However, the single-day rally of 3.48% on June 11, 2026, helped stabilize the stock, allowing it to reclaim the green zone.

The rapid transition out of the yellow zone suggests that buyers stepped in quickly to support the stock. However, a deeper look at the historical data is required to understand whether this quick bounce is typical for TXN or if the stock remains vulnerable to a deeper retest of its recent lows.

Recovery By the Numbers: Current Risk and Valuation Metrics

The proprietary Drawdown Severity Score™ for TXN stands at 1.6 as of June 11, 2026. This score places the stock in the green zone, which represents a "Slightly Elevated" risk level. This is a positive shift from the previous yellow zone, indicating that the immediate downside momentum has slowed.

To provide historical context, as of 2026-06-10, the asset's valuation multiples sit at historically high levels relative to its own daily history since 2006-06-12. The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is 14.0, which sits in the 100th percentile of its own historical record compared to a historical median of 4.9. Similarly, the EV-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is 32.5, placing it in the 100th percentile of its historical range against a historical median of 13.3. This contrasts with the -8.6% price drawdown, showing that while the price has declined from its peak, the valuation multiples remain at the absolute top of their historical ranges.

This divergence between a recovering severity score and historically high valuation percentiles is a critical detail for market participants. While the technical risk score has improved to 1.6, the fundamental multiples have not experienced a meaningful reset. This suggests that the stock's recovery is being driven by market momentum and optimistic growth expectations rather than a return to historical valuation averages.

Historical Comparison: How TXN Navigates Pullbacks

To understand the significance of the current -8.6% drawdown, we must look at how TXN has behaved historically. Our database has tracked a total of 180 historical drawdown events for this stock.

The table below outlines the key historical drawdown and recovery metrics for TXN, comparing the current event against historical averages.

The data shows that the current drawdown of -8.6% is already deeper than the historical average max drawdown of -6.4%. This indicates that the recent sell-off was more severe than a typical TXN pullback.

Furthermore, when TXN experiences a drop of 5% or more, it enters a different category of risk. Historically, the stock has dropped 5% or more from its peak 66 times. The average duration for these comparable drops is 203 days. Because the current drawdown has lasted only 12 days, history suggests that a complete recovery to the all-time high of $324.89 could take significantly longer than the time elapsed so far.

Is the Correction Over? Analyzing Recovery Patterns

The transition from the yellow zone back to the green zone is a positive technical sign, but it does not guarantee a straight path back to all-time highs. In many historical instances, a stock will bounce out of a deeper drawdown zone only to retest those lows before fully recovering.

The semiconductor sector has shown high volatility recently. According to StockStory, companies like Lattice Semiconductor and Texas Instruments saw their shares move upward due to broader industry optimism. However, institutional activity shows a mixed picture. For instance, MarketBeat reported that Deutsche Bank AG recently sold 353,734 shares of TXN, indicating that some institutional managers are taking profits or reducing exposure at these valuation levels.

With the current severity score at 1.6, the immediate panic has subsided. However, because the average duration of a 5%+ drawdown is 203 days, investors should remain aware of the historical precedent. A 12-day drawdown is exceptionally short for a drop of this magnitude. If the broader market optimism cools, TXN could easily experience a secondary slide that pushes the severity score back into the yellow zone or deeper.

Key Levels and Risk Thresholds to Monitor

For investors tracking TXN, there are several key price levels and risk thresholds to monitor based on our drawdown data:

• The All-Time High ($324.89): This is the ultimate target for a full recovery. To completely erase the current drawdown, TXN must rise 9.4% from its current price of $297.10.
• The -5% Drawdown Level ($308.65): This level represents the boundary of a standard historical pullback. Reclaiming and holding this price level would signal strong upward momentum and a potential invalidation of the longer-term 203-day recovery average.
• The Current Support Level ($297.10): If selling pressure resumes, keeping an eye on whether the stock holds the current price is critical. A drop below this level would likely push the Drawdown Severity Score™ back into the yellow zone.

By monitoring these specific thresholds, investors can gain a clearer picture of whether TXN is embarking on a sustainable recovery or if the current bounce is a temporary pause in a longer-term correction.