Tesla Is Down 16% Over 128 Days. What History Says Now

Tesla's 15.7% Drawdown Lasts 128 Days: What History Shows

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is down -15.7% from its all-time high as of June 29, 2026, and has been in this drawdown for 128 days. The Drawdown Severity Score™ stands at 2.5, keeping the stock in the yellow zone after a marginal severity adjustment. In 16 comparable prior drops of this depth, the stock took an average of 295 days to recover.

Analyzing the Current Yellow Zone Phase

As of June 29, 2026, our data shows that TSLA has maintained its position within the yellow zone. The previous zone designation was also yellow, meaning the asset has remained in a state of moderately elevated risk without crossing into a high-severity red or orange zone. The current severity score of 2.5 reflects a minor adjustment within this risk band.

This 128-day period represents a prolonged period of price consolidation below the previous peak. While the drawdown has not deepened significantly, the time spent below the historical high continues to accumulate.

Our systematic tracking identifies this phase as a period of stabilized risk. The transition from yellow to yellow indicates that the downward momentum has paused, but the asset has not yet begun a significant recovery.

Price Levels and Valuation Context

The current price of $411.84 is positioned -15.7% below the all-time high of $488.73. To recover to its peak, the stock must close the $76.89 per share deficit.

As of the valuation snapshot on 2026-06-28, the Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio for TSLA stands at 13.7, which sits in the 62nd percentile of its own daily P/S record since 2010-06-29. This places the current P/S ratio within its own typical historical range, compared to a historical median of 10.6. Meanwhile, the EV-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is 119.4 as of 2026-06-28, representing the 51st percentile of its daily record since 2014-02-26, which is aligned with its historical median of 118.2. This contextualizes the current price drawdown of -15.7% against the asset's own long-term valuation multiples.

Our data indicates that tracking both the absolute drawdown depth and the relative valuation percentiles provides a clearer picture of historical risk. The historical percentile data helps investors understand where current multiples sit relative to the asset's own history.

Evaluating these metrics side by side provides a quantitative view of the current price correction. This framework allows for a direct comparison with previous historical cycles without relying on subjective market narratives.

Historical Drawdown Comparison

To understand the significance of a 128-day drawdown, we must examine the historical record of TSLA. Our database has tracked a total of 78 historical drawdown events for this asset.

The historical data reveals that the average max drawdown across all 78 events is -10.4%. The current drawdown of -15.7% has exceeded this historical average by 5.3 percentage points, indicating a deeper-than-average correction.

The average drawdown duration across all historical events is 66 days. With the current drawdown lasting 128 days, TSLA has spent nearly double its average historical duration in this correction phase.

When we filter the historical record for comparable drops of 15% or more, we find that this has occurred 16 times in the history of the asset. The average duration of these comparable deeper drops is 295 days.

The difference between the overall average duration of 66 days and the comparable drop average of 295 days is substantial. Once TSLA crosses the 15% drawdown threshold, the recovery process historically becomes highly prolonged.

The current duration of 128 days is still well below the historical average of 295 days for comparable 15%+ drops. This suggests that, historically, corrections of this magnitude often require several more months to fully resolve.

Of the 16 comparable historical drops, some resolved quickly, while others persisted for much longer. The 295-day average highlights the typical persistence of deeper corrections in the asset's trading history.

Distribution of Historical Drawdowns

Our data shows that out of the 78 total historical drawdown events, 62 of these pullbacks remained shallower than the 15% threshold. This means that approximately 79.5% of all historical pullbacks for TSLA resolve before reaching the severity of the current correction.

The current -15.7% drawdown represents a less common, more severe class of price correction for the asset. Understanding this distribution helps frame the current risk environment relative to typical historical behavior.

Similarly, the duration distribution shows a strong contrast between typical pullbacks and deeper corrections. The overall average drawdown duration of 66 days is heavily weighted by the 62 shallower events.

When the stock enters the deeper 15%+ territory, the average duration expands dramatically to 295 days. This indicates a structural shift in recovery dynamics once the -15% threshold is crossed.

The Mathematical Reality of Drawdown Recovery

Every drawdown carries a mathematical asymmetry that impacts recovery timelines. A drop of -15.7% requires an 18.62% increase from the current price of $411.84 to reach the all-time high of $488.73.

This break-even requirement is higher than the nominal drawdown percentage itself. As drawdowns deepen, the percentage gain required to recover increases exponentially.

Our quantitative tracking monitors this break-even gap to assess the historical probability of recovery within specific timeframes. The Drawdown Severity Score™ incorporates these mathematical dynamics to provide an objective risk rating.

By analyzing the historical distribution of these recovery paths, we can observe how the asset has behaved in similar scenarios. The 16 historical events that exceeded a 15% drawdown serve as the primary statistical baseline for this analysis.

Methodology and Data Limitations

This analysis is strictly based on historical price action and drawdown metrics as of June 29, 2026. We do not incorporate external market narratives, corporate earnings, regulatory developments, or macroeconomic indicators.

Our models focus exclusively on the mathematical properties of drawdown depth, duration, and severity. This quantitative approach avoids the subjective assumptions often found in qualitative market commentary.

Historical performance does not guarantee future results. The historical averages and comparable durations presented here represent statistical patterns rather than definitive forecasts.

The severity score is a proprietary metric that combines drawdown depth, duration, and historical frequency to assign a risk rating. This rating helps separate normal market noise from historically significant corrections.

By relying on objective price and drawdown history, the score removes emotional decision-making. It provides a standardized way to compare the current correction to the asset's entire trading history since its public debut.

Key Levels and Severity Thresholds to Watch

To track the future progression of this drawdown, several key price levels and severity thresholds are critical. A recovery to the all-time high of $488.73 is required to fully close the drawdown and return the severity score to zero.

If the price declines further, the Drawdown Severity Score™ will adjust accordingly. A drop below the -20% drawdown level, which corresponds to a price of $390.98, would mark a transition into a more severe drawdown category.

Conversely, sustained upward price movement that reduces the drawdown below -10% (a price of $439.86) would likely lower the severity score and signal a transition toward the green zone.

We will continue to track these metrics daily to update the risk profile of TSLA. Monitoring these exact boundaries helps maintain an objective view of the asset's price structure.