TEM Is Down 40%. What History Shows

Tempus AI Is Down 40% After 274 Days. What History Says

Tempus AI, Inc. (TEM) is now down 40% from its all-time high as of July 9, 2026, having just exited the red zone after 274 days. Our data shows the Drawdown Severity Score™ has improved to 5.4, which carries a Strong classification. In 4 comparable prior drops of 30% or more, the stock took an average of 108 days to recover.

Tempus AI Exits Deep Red Zone

The historical trading record for Tempus AI, Inc. shows a significant transition as of July 9, 2026. After spending a prolonged period in the deepest parts of the red zone, the stock has begun to show signs of stabilization. The current price of $61.50 represents a -40.4% drawdown from its all-time high of $103.25.

While a -40.4% decline remains substantial, the movement of the Drawdown Severity Score™ to 5.4 indicates that the immediate downward momentum has decelerated. This transition marks a critical shift from a worsening phase to a technical recovery phase. Our data shows that the asset spent 274 days in this specific drawdown cycle before reaching this stabilization milestone.

This recovery event does not imply the stock is out of the woods, but it does show that the velocity of the sell-off has eased. Investors tracking the asset are closely watching whether this movement represents a temporary pause or the beginning of a sustained structural recovery.

Behind the Numbers: The 274-Day Drawdown

To understand the current state of Tempus AI, Inc., we must examine the duration and depth of its current pullback. The stock reached its peak of $103.25 before entering a downward trajectory that has lasted 274 days as of July 9, 2026. This duration is significantly longer than the historical average for this asset.

Our data shows that the historical drawdown behavior of Tempus AI, Inc. typically follows much shorter cycles. The current 274-day stretch represents an extended period of capital preservation testing for shareholders. The prolonged nature of this decline suggests that broader macroeconomic pressures and company-specific shifts have heavily influenced the stock price.

During this 274-day period, the stock experienced multiple waves of selling pressure before finding support around its current price of $61.50. The transition of the severity score to a Strong rating of 5.4 suggests that the selling pressure has finally met equivalent buying demand.

Catalysts and Market Sentiment Driving the Stock

Recent fundamental developments and corporate news have directly influenced the price action of Tempus AI, Inc. leading up to July 9, 2026. According to Stock Titan, Tempus scheduled its Q2 earnings call for July 30, which will provide updated financial results and operational guidance. This upcoming announcement has created a pocket of anticipation in the market, causing some short-term stabilization.

Strategic shifts have also caught the attention of market analysts. A report by Simply Wall St highlighted how investors are responding to Tempus AI refocusing its business model from traditional lab tests to high-margin AI research partnerships. This transition is viewed by some as a positive structural pivot, though it introduces new execution risks.

In contrast, insider activity has introduced some caution. According to Investing.com, the Tempus AI CEO recently sold $600,000 in stock. While insider sales can occur for various personal reasons, market participants often monitor these transactions closely during periods of extended drawdowns. Meanwhile, institutional interest remains active, with MarketBeat reporting that Janney Montgomery Scott LLC recently purchased shares of the company.

Additionally, Yahoo Finance reported on the stock's 23% year-to-date decline, raising questions about whether an entry opportunity is emerging for long-term investors. Institutional coverage also continues to expand, with Insider Monkey noting that Freedom Capital recently initiated coverage on the company.

Historical Comparison: How TEM Behaves in Deep Drawdowns

Analyzing the historical drawdown data of Tempus AI, Inc. reveals how unusual the current 274-day cycle is. The company has a relatively short trading history, which limits the available data set. We must emphasize that the small sample size of historical events means these averages should be interpreted with caution.

Our data shows the following historical performance metrics for Tempus AI, Inc. drawdowns:

The average historical drawdown for Tempus AI, Inc. lasts just 57 days, with an average peak-to-trough decline of -28.2%. The current drawdown of -40.4% lasting 274 days is vastly deeper and longer than the historical norm.

When looking specifically at the 4 times the stock has dropped 30% or more, the average duration of those comparable drops was 108 days. The current 274-day stretch is more than double the historical average for these severe pullbacks. This indicates that the current market cycle for Tempus AI, Inc. is highly anomalous compared to its past behavior.

Understanding the Current Strong Severity Score

The Drawdown Severity Score™ of 5.4 is classified as Strong. This score is a proprietary metric that evaluates the speed, depth, and duration of an asset's price decline relative to its historical behavior. A score of 5.4 indicates that while the stock remains in a significant historical correction, the immediate risk of an accelerating collapse has decreased.

The severity score previously occupied a higher, more critical position within the red zone. The improvement to 5.4 reflects the recent price consolidation around the $61.50 level. It indicates that the asset is beginning to build a technical base after months of persistent declines.

Investors utilize the Drawdown Severity Score™ to gauge risk levels without relying on subjective market commentary. A Strong score of 5.4 suggests that the asset is in a stabilization phase, but still requires significant upward momentum to transition into a moderate or neutral risk zone.

Key Thresholds to Watch for a Full Recovery

For Tempus AI, Inc. to signal a complete technical recovery, it must cross several key price and percentage thresholds. The first major milestone is reclaiming the -30% drawdown level, which would require the stock to rise from its current price of $61.50 toward the $72.00 range. Crossing this threshold would historically shift the stock out of the high-severity category.

The second key milestone is the average drawdown duration. Because the stock has already exceeded its average comparable drawdown duration of 108 days by a wide margin, any sustained upward movement will be pioneering new technical territory for this market cycle.

Finally, the upcoming Q2 earnings call on July 30 will likely serve as a fundamental pivot point. If the reported financial metrics and AI partnership updates satisfy the market, it could accelerate the recovery process. Conversely, any disappointing guidance could cause the severity score to reverse course and head back deeper into the red zone.