Take-Two Is Down 9%. What History Says About the Recovery

Take-Two Is Down 9%. Here's What Past Recoveries Show.

As of June 18, 2026, Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (TTWO) has transitioned from the yellow zone to the green zone as its Drawdown Severity Score™ improved to 1.5, representing a slightly elevated risk profile. As of this date, the stock trades at $239.28, which is an -8.8% drawdown from its all-time high of $262.29, after spending 179 days in this drawdown cycle. This shift indicates a stabilization in price action relative to historical volatility patterns.

Tracking the Move From Yellow to Green Zone

The transition of TTWO from the yellow zone to the green zone as of June 18, 2026, represents a stabilization in its risk profile. The Drawdown Severity Score™ has decreased to 1.5, which falls within the slightly elevated range. This indicates that while the stock remains in a drawdown, the velocity and depth of the decline have moderated significantly compared to historical precedents.

Previously, the stock resided in the yellow zone, which indicates heightened risk and faster-moving drawdowns. The shift to the green zone occurs as the price action consolidates around the $239.28 level. Historically, zone transitions of this nature are critical checkpoints for risk management. They signal that the immediate selling pressure has abated, allowing the asset's historical volatility metrics to stabilize.

Our data shows that the Drawdown Severity Score™ is a dynamic metric that compares the current drawdown's speed, depth, and duration against all prior historical cycles. By moving to a 1.5 severity score, TTWO is demonstrating that its current correction is no longer behaving like its most severe historical sell-offs. Instead, it is aligning more closely with typical, non-systemic pullbacks.

The Anatomy of Take-Two's Current Drawdown

To understand the current state of TTWO, we must examine the exact mathematical parameters of its current cycle as of June 18, 2026. The stock trades at $239.28. This price represents an -8.8% drawdown from its all-time high of $262.29. This cycle has now persisted for 179 days, making it one of the more protracted consolidations in the stock's recent history.

When we compare these figures to the asset's long-term historical averages, several deviations emerge. Across all 130 historical drawdown events recorded in our database, the average maximum drawdown for TTWO is -8.1%. The drawdown of -8.8% as of June 18, 2026, is slightly deeper than this historical average. This indicates that the current sell-off, while not catastrophic, is technically worse than the average pullback experienced by the stock over its entire trading history.

Even more striking is the difference in duration. The average drawdown duration across all 130 historical events is 78 days. The current cycle has lasted 179 days, which is more than double the historical average. This prolonged duration shows that while the depth of the drop has been relatively contained at -8.8%, the time required to resolve this drawdown has been exceptionally long. This slow-grinding price action explains why the severity score remained in the yellow zone for an extended period before finally moderating to the green zone.

Valuation Context and Historical Percentiles

As of 2026-06-17, our data shows that the Price-to-Sales ratio (P/S) for Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (TTWO) stands at 6.4, placing it in the 88th percentile of its own daily P/S record since 2006-06-16, which is above its own typical range and historical median of 2.6. Similarly, the EV-to-EBITDA ratio (EV/EBITDA) is 37.2, placing it in the 81st percentile of its own daily EV/EBITDA record since 2007-09-10, which is also above its own typical range and historical median of 21.3. This highlights that despite the price being in an -8.8% drawdown as of June 18, 2026, the stock's valuation multiples remain high relative to its own historical distribution.

Historical Comparisons: How Prior 5% Drops Evolved

A deeper look into the historical data reveals how TTWO has behaved during similar pullbacks. Out of the 130 total drawdown events in the stock's history, it has dropped by 5% or more from its peak exactly 49 times. These 49 events represent comparable drawdowns where the stock experienced a meaningful correction rather than a minor, short-lived fluctuation.

For these 49 comparable drops, the average duration of the drawdown cycle was 199 days. As of June 18, 2026, the current drawdown has lasted 179 days, which is 20 days shorter than the historical 199-day average. Comparing these metrics provides a clearer picture of how the current price action aligns with historical patterns.

The table below outlines the key differences between the current drawdown and historical precedents:

This comparison highlights that while the 179-day duration as of June 18, 2026, is far longer than the average 78-day duration of all drawdowns, it is actually quite typical when compared to the 49 historical events that exceeded a 5% decline. In those cases, the stock took an average of 199 days to fully recover or establish a new high. This suggests that TTWO is approaching the late stages of a historically normal correction window for a 5%+ drawdown.

Historically, when TTWO enters a drawdown of this depth, the recovery path is rarely linear. The 49 comparable events show a wide dispersion of recovery times, but the 199-day average serves as an important benchmark for investors tracking the current stabilization.

Inside the Drawdown Severity Score™ Methodology

To put these numbers in perspective, it is helpful to understand how we calculate the Drawdown Severity Score™. This proprietary metric uses a scale from 0 to 10 to quantify the risk profile of an asset during a correction. The score is not a simple measure of percentage decline: instead, it is a multi-dimensional calculation that evaluates three primary factors: depth, duration, and velocity.

First, the score measures the current drawdown depth relative to the asset's historical distribution of drawdowns. An -8.8% drop for TTWO is analyzed against all 130 historical events to determine its statistical rarity. Second, the duration of 179 days as of June 18, 2026, is compared to the historical average duration. Finally, the velocity, or the speed at which the stock fell from its peak, is assessed.

By combining these factors, the model assigns a score that places the asset into one of three color-coded risk zones: green (low to slightly elevated risk), yellow (moderate risk), or red (high risk). The transition of TTWO to a 1.5 Drawdown Severity Score™ in the green zone indicates that the combination of its -8.8% depth, 179-day duration, and recent price stability no longer presents an elevated risk profile according to our historical model.

Limitations of This Quantitative Analysis

This analysis relies strictly on historical price and drawdown data as of June 18, 2026. It does not incorporate fundamental developments, industry trends, or broader macroeconomic conditions that may influence future price movements. Past performance and historical drawdown patterns do not guarantee future results. Our data shows how the stock has behaved historically under similar technical conditions, but it does not predict future price direction or provide investment recommendations.

By focusing purely on the mathematical realities of the stock's price history, this analysis provides an objective framework for assessing risk. However, quantitative models have inherent limits. They cannot account for sudden shifts in market regime, unexpected corporate events, or changing macroeconomic factors. Therefore, this data should be used as a supplementary tool for risk monitoring rather than a sole basis for making investment decisions.

Key Levels and Severity Thresholds to Monitor

For investors tracking the price action of TTWO, several key levels and severity thresholds will dictate whether the stock maintains its green zone status or deteriorates back into a higher-risk regime.

First, the key level to monitor on the downside is the -10% drawdown threshold, which corresponds to a price of $236.06. A breach of this level would represent a deeper correction and could trigger an increase in the severity score. Specifically, if the severity score rises above 2.0, the stock would likely transition back into the yellow zone, indicating moderate risk.

On the upside, the primary target is the all-time high of $262.29. To signify a meaningful recovery, the stock needs to reduce its drawdown to less than -5%, which equates to a price of $249.18 as of June 18, 2026. Crossing this threshold would materially lower the severity score and confirm that the stock is progressing toward a full recovery. Monitoring these specific price and drawdown levels will provide real-time insight into the ongoing evolution of TTWO's drawdown cycle.