SWKS Is Down 59% in 1,800 Days. What History Says.

SWKS Is Down 59% in 1,800 Days. What History Says.

As of June 16, 2026, Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS) remains in the red zone with a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 9.1, representing a drawdown of -59.4% from its all-time high of $175.92. This persistent drawdown has lasted 1,815 days, placing the stock in its most severe risk category. Historical data shows that comparable declines of 50% or more are rare for this asset, occurring only four times in its trading history.

Deepening the Red Zone: The Current Drawdown State

The drawdown of -59.4% as of June 16, 2026, represents an extended period of capital impairment relative to previous peaks. The stock reached its all-time high of $175.92 and has since spent 1,815 days in this drawdown cycle. In previous periods, the asset transitioned through various risk zones, but it continues to sit in the red zone, which indicates a Very Large drawdown severity.

Our data shows that the severity score of 9.1 is significantly higher than typical pullbacks for this asset. Across all 85 historical drawdown events recorded for the stock, the average maximum drawdown is -11.8%. The current decline is more than five times deeper than that historical average, highlighting the extreme nature of this multi-year cycle.

When an asset enters the red zone, it indicates that the current sell-off has exceeded standard volatility thresholds. A severity score of 9.1 out of 10 signals that almost all historical pullbacks were milder or resolved much faster than the active cycle. This places the asset in a prolonged state of recovery, where the distance to its prior peak requires substantial upward performance.

Peak Severity and Drawdown Duration Analysis

To understand the depth of this cycle, we must analyze both its duration and its depth relative to historical norms. The 1,815 days spent in the current drawdown as of June 16, 2026, dwarf the historical average drawdown duration of 150 days. This indicates that the asset is experiencing an extended structural correction rather than a typical short-term fluctuation.

The Drawdown Severity Score™ of 9.1 places the stock in the "Very Large" category. The persistence of this score in the red zone suggests that the downward pressure has not yet shown signs of reversing. When an asset remains in the red zone for an extended period, it indicates that price recovery remains distant from the previous peak of $175.92.

From a mathematical perspective, deep drawdowns require asymmetrical gains to achieve break-even status. For an asset down -59.4%, a simple recovery to the previous peak requires a price increase of approximately 146.3% from the price of $71.42 as of June 16, 2026. This stark asymmetry explains why deep drawdowns often require years to resolve, as the compounding positive returns needed to erase a -59.4% decline are statistically difficult to achieve in short timeframes.

The duration of 1,815 days also highlights the opportunity cost for capital deployed during the peak. While typical market corrections resolve within months, this cycle has persisted for nearly five years. This extended duration places the current event among the longest and most severe in the asset's trading history since its inception.

Historical Comparison of Deep Drawdowns

Historical analysis provides valuable context for how the stock behaves during major corrections. Our data shows that the stock has dropped by 50% or more only four times in its history. This small sample size of four events suggests that drops of this magnitude are rare, but when they do occur, they require substantial time to resolve.

On average, these comparable drops of 50% or more have taken 2,463 days to recover. Because we are looking at a small sample size of only four historical events, investors should treat this average with caution. However, it indicates that deep drawdowns for this asset have historically been multi-year processes.

To visualize how the current drawdown compares to historical averages, we can look at the key metrics in the table below:

As the table illustrates, the current cycle is far more severe than the average historical pullback. The 1,815 days elapsed in the current cycle represent approximately 73.7% of the average recovery duration seen in prior 50% or deeper drops. This suggests that if the current cycle aligns with historical averages, the recovery process could still require hundreds of additional days of trading activity.

It is also worth noting the contrast between the average drawdown of -11.8% across all 85 historical events and the current -59.4% level. The vast majority of historical drawdowns for the stock are minor, short-lived pullbacks. The current event is an outlier that sits in the extreme tail of the asset's historical distribution.

Valuation Context and Historical Multiples

To complement the price drawdown data, we examine the asset's valuation multiples relative to its own history. As of the valuation snapshot on 2026-06-15, the Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio for the stock is 2.8. This ratio sits in the 30th percentile of its own daily P/S record since 2006-06-15, placing it below its typical historical range, which has a median of 3.5. In contrast, the Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is 12.9 as of 2026-06-15. This multiple sits in the 61st percentile of its own daily EV/EBITDA record since 2006-06-15, which is within its typical historical range where the median is 11.9.

Data Limits and Analysis Framework

This drawdown analysis relies strictly on historical price and drawdown data as of June 16, 2026. We do not incorporate external market narratives, macroeconomic factors, industry trends, or specific corporate events. By focusing purely on quantitative metrics, we avoid making causal claims about the direction of the stock or the underlying business drivers.

The Drawdown Severity Score™ is a proprietary metric designed to measure the intensity of a pullback relative to an asset's unique trading history. It does not predict future price movements or provide buy or sell recommendations. Historical performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes, and the small sample size of four comparable deep drawdowns means that past recovery timelines may not repeat in the current cycle.

By isolating the price action and duration metrics, we provide an objective look at where the stock sits in its historical risk spectrum. This allows investors to evaluate the current state of capital impairment without the noise of changing market sentiments or speculative forecasts. The data speaks to historical frequencies and durations, leaving the interpretation of future business prospects to individual analysis.

Key Thresholds and What to Watch

For investors monitoring the stock, several key price and drawdown thresholds will dictate whether the data picture is changing. Because the stock is priced at $71.42 as of June 16, 2026, it must clear several key resistance levels in drawdown terms to transition to lower severity scores.

The table below outlines the exact price levels required to reach specific drawdown thresholds from the all-time high of $175.92:

As shown above, the stock must rise to $87.96 just to reduce its drawdown to -50.0%, which would represent a 23.2% increase from the current price. A transition out of the red zone and a meaningful reduction in the severity score would likely require the stock to reclaim these higher brackets.

Conversely, if the stock continues to decline or remain flat, the duration of the drawdown will continue to tick upward from 1,815 days. If the active cycle surpasses 2,463 days without a recovery, it will exceed the average duration of the four comparable deep drawdowns in the stock's history. This would mark the current cycle as the most prolonged period of capital impairment the asset has experienced in the modern trading era.

Monitoring these specific price and drawdown levels provides a clear, quantitative framework for tracking the stock's recovery progress. Rather than relying on subjective assessments of market health, these metrics offer concrete milestones that must be achieved to alter the current high-risk profile indicated by the Drawdown Severity Score™.