Steel Dynamics Is Down 13%. What History Says

Steel Dynamics Is Down 13% in 9 Days. What History Says

Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) is down 13% from its all-time high as of June 26, 2026, having fallen into a drawdown that has lasted 9 days. The Drawdown Severity Score™ has moved to 2.2, transitioning the stock from the green zone to the yellow zone. In 26 comparable prior drops of 10% or more, Steel Dynamics, Inc. took an average of 373 days to recover.

Current Drawdown Severity Profile

As of June 26, 2026, the price of Steel Dynamics, Inc. closed at $245.49, marking a -13.2% decline from its all-time high of $282.76. This price action has triggered a shift in the asset's risk classification, moving it from the green zone to the yellow zone. The Drawdown Severity Score™ now stands at 2.2, which indicates a Moderately Elevated risk level based on the speed and depth of the current decline.

The transition occurred over a brief period, with the current drawdown lasting only 9 days. A 9-day decline of this magnitude is historically rapid for this asset, representing a sharp departure from its baseline behavior. In the green zone, price fluctuations are typically minor and resolve quickly, but crossing into the yellow zone indicates that the selling pressure has exceeded standard operational volatility.

Our data shows that the current -13.2% drawdown is already significantly deeper than the historical average drawdown depth for this stock. While minor pullbacks are a regular occurrence, a double-digit decline represents a distinct phase shift in the stock's price structure.

Valuation Multiples in Historical Context

As historical context for this price drawdown, our data shows the valuation multiples of Steel Dynamics, Inc. remain elevated compared to its own historical range as of 2026-06-25. The Price-to-Sales ratio (P/S) is 1.9, which sits in the 100th percentile of its own daily P/S record since 2006-06-26, compared to a historical median of 0.79. Additionally, the EV-to-EBITDA ratio (EV/EBITDA) is 15.7, placing it in the 92nd percentile of its own daily EV/EBITDA record since 2006-06-26, compared to its historical median of 8.1.

Historical Drawdown Analysis

To contextualize the current decline, we can examine the complete historical record of Steel Dynamics, Inc. since its inception. Our database has recorded a total of 121 drawdown events for this asset. Across all 121 events, the average maximum drawdown depth is -7.9%, and the average duration to recover the previous peak is 86 days.

The current -13.2% drawdown has already surpassed the average historical depth by 5.3 percentage points. However, the duration of the current event is only 9 days, which is far below the historical average recovery time of 86 days. This discrepancy suggests that the current decline is in its early stages relative to historical cycles.

When we isolate only the more severe declines, the historical outlook changes. Steel Dynamics, Inc. has experienced a drawdown of 10% or greater exactly 26 times in its history. In these 26 comparable cases, the average duration to recover the previous peak extends to 373 days. This indicates that once the stock enters a double-digit drawdown, the recovery process typically requires more than a full calendar year.

The historical data demonstrates a clear threshold effect for this asset. While minor drawdowns under 10% tend to resolve within a few months, drawdowns that cross the 10% threshold often lead to prolonged consolidation or recovery periods. The 373-day average recovery for comparable drops highlights the potential for an extended timeline before the stock reclaims its all-time high of $282.76.

To further understand the historical distribution, we can look at how often drawdowns of various depths occur. Of the 121 total drawdown events recorded for Steel Dynamics, Inc., the vast majority resolved before reaching a 10% decline. This highlights that a 13.2% drawdown is an outlier event, occurring in only 21.5% of historical cases. Once the 10% threshold is breached, the statistical recovery profile shifts dramatically. The average duration of 373 days for these 26 comparable drops indicates that the asset often enters a prolonged period of consolidation. This extended timeline contrasts sharply with the 86-day average duration observed across all 121 events, which is heavily skewed by the high frequency of shallow, fast-recovering pullbacks.

Quantitative Risk Framing

The transition to a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 2.2 provides a quantitative framework for assessing risk without relying on subjective market commentary. This score is calculated by comparing the current drawdown depth and duration against the historical distribution of all 121 drawdown events. A severity score of 2.2 indicates that the current price action is in the upper tier of historical risk profiles, though it remains below the extreme levels of the red zone.

Historically, drawdowns that settle in the yellow zone represent a critical decision point for the asset's price trajectory. In some of the 26 comparable cases, the stock stabilized near the 10% to 15% range before beginning a gradual recovery. In other instances, the yellow zone served as a transition point toward much deeper drawdowns that eventually crossed into the red zone, where severity scores exceed 5.0.

By analyzing the ratio of minor pullbacks to deeper corrections, our data shows that approximately 21.5% of all drawdowns for Steel Dynamics, Inc. eventually reach the 10% threshold. This means that while the vast majority of pullbacks remain minor and resolve within the green zone, a significant minority develop into the deeper, prolonged declines characterized by the current yellow zone status.

The severity score also factors in the velocity of the decline. A drop of 13.2% that occurs over 9 days represents a high-velocity event compared to historical drawdowns that slowly grind downward over several months. High-velocity declines often lead to a rapid increase in the severity score because they represent sudden shifts in the balance of supply and demand. In past instances where Steel Dynamics, Inc. experienced a similarly rapid transition to the yellow zone, the price stabilized only after a period of volume exhaustion. By analyzing these velocity patterns, our data helps establish whether a decline is behaving like a standard orderly pullback or a more systemic repricing event.

Data Limits and Methodology

This analysis is based entirely on verified historical price and drawdown data for Steel Dynamics, Inc. as of June 26, 2026. We do not incorporate qualitative inputs, macroeconomic variables, industry trends, or corporate developments into our models. The calculations rely on the mathematical relationship between the current price of $245.49, the historical peak of $282.76, and the historical performance of the asset over its trading history.

By focusing exclusively on price and drawdown metrics, this analysis provides an objective baseline of historical probabilities. It does not attempt to predict future price direction or suggest specific investment actions. The historical averages and recovery durations presented are statistical descriptions of past behavior and do not guarantee that the current drawdown will follow an identical path.

Key Markers to Monitor

To track the progression of this drawdown, investors can monitor several specific quantitative markers. The first marker is the 10% drawdown threshold, which corresponds to a price of approximately $254.48. Reclaiming this price level and reducing the drawdown to single digits would signal a potential return to the green zone and a lowering of the severity score.

The second marker is the current duration of 9 days. If the drawdown persists and approaches the historical average recovery time of 86 days without a significant price recovery, it would indicate that the current event is aligning with longer-term historical consolidations. Conversely, a rapid recovery within the next few weeks would represent an unusually fast resolution for a double-digit decline.

The final marker is the next major severity threshold. If the drawdown deepens to 20% or more, which would require a price decline below approximately $226.21, the Drawdown Severity Score™ would increase significantly, likely transitioning the asset into the red zone. Monitoring these specific price and duration levels provides a structured framework for assessing the ongoing risk profile of the stock.