SPMO Is Down 7% in 35 Days. What History Suggests

SPMO Is Down 6.5% in 35 Days. What History Suggests

Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF (SPMO) is now down -6.5% from its all-time high as of August 4, 2026, having just exited the yellow zone after 35 days. The Drawdown Severity Score™ has improved to 1.5, placing it in the Slightly Elevated green zone. In 19 comparable prior drops of 5% or deeper, the ETF took an average of 123 days to resolve the drawdown.

Where It Was: Peak Severity and Recent History

As of August 4, 2026, the ETF has spent 35 days in its current drawdown cycle. During this period, the price retraced from its peak of $161.66 to the current price of $151.17. This movement represents a total decline of -6.5% from the all-time high.

Before entering the green zone, our data shows that the ETF was positioned in the yellow zone. The yellow zone indicates a moderate risk state where price pressure is more intense. The transition to the green zone indicates a moderating risk profile, even though the price remains below its peak.

Our historical tracking shows that the transition out of the yellow zone is a key technical milestone. The current severity score of 1.5 indicates that the downward momentum has decelerated. However, the asset has not yet fully recovered, and it remains in a state of active drawdown.

Current Position: Distance From All-Time High

The current price of $151.17 sits -6.5% below the peak of $161.66. Under our proprietary risk framework, this position yields a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 1.5. This score is classified as Slightly Elevated, which is the higher end of the green zone.

To put this -6.5% decline in perspective, we can look at the entire historical dataset for the ETF. Across all 152 historical drawdown events, the average maximum drawdown was only -2.4%. This means the current pullback is more than double the depth of a typical historical decline.

The duration of the current pullback also exceeds the historical norm. While the average drawdown duration across all 152 events is 23 days, the current cycle has persisted for 35 days. This extended duration indicates that the current pullback is structurally different from minor, short-lived fluctuations.

The current Slightly Elevated severity score of 1.5 reflects this combination of above-average depth and extended duration. While the risk has moderated from the previous yellow zone, the data shows that the ETF is still working through a prolonged corrective phase.

Historical Comparison: Analyzing the 19 Prior Drops

To understand how a -6.5% drawdown typically resolves, we must filter the historical database for comparable events. While the average drawdown is -2.4%, the ETF has experienced deeper pullbacks of 5% or more exactly 19 times in its history. These 19 events provide a much more accurate baseline for the current scenario than the broader dataset.

For these 19 comparable drops, the average total duration of the drawdown was 123 days. This duration is significantly longer than the current 35-day lifespan of the active pullback. This historical discrepancy suggests that deeper corrections often require multiple months to fully resolve and reclaim prior peaks.

The table below outlines the key differences between the current drawdown, the overall historical averages, and the subset of deeper pullbacks.

Analyzing these 19 historical occurrences reveals a clear pattern. When the ETF breaks past the 5% drawdown threshold, the recovery process slows down. The average duration of 123 days indicates that the market typically takes time to consolidate before establishing a new upward trend.

With the current drawdown at 35 days, the ETF is still in the early stages of this historical window. If the current cycle follows the average of the 19 comparable drops, the recovery process could extend for several more weeks. However, the improvement of the Drawdown Severity Score™ to 1.5 shows that the immediate downward pressure has begun to ease.

We can also analyze the relationship between the severity score and the recovery timeline. In past instances where the severity score improved from the yellow zone to the Slightly Elevated green zone, the stabilization phase often preceded a gradual return to the peak.

Analyzing the Velocity of the Current Pullback

The current drawdown of -6.5% has developed over a period of 35 days as of August 4, 2026. This translates to an average daily decline of approximately 0.186% from the peak of $161.66 to the current price of $151.17.

We can contrast this velocity with the average historical drawdown profile. Across all 152 historical drawdown events, the average maximum drawdown was -2.4% over an average duration of 23 days. This represents an average daily rate of decline of approximately 0.104% during typical pullbacks.

The current pullback has therefore progressed at a velocity that is roughly 79% faster than the historical average. This higher velocity explains why the Drawdown Severity Score™ previously reached the yellow zone. Fast-moving drawdowns create higher statistical variance, which our model flags as an elevated risk state.

As the velocity of the decline slows, the severity score naturally begins to recover. The recent transition from the yellow zone to the Slightly Elevated green zone indicates that this rate of decline has flattened.

Mathematical Breakdown of Minor vs. Deep Drawdowns

To understand the structure of SPMO's historical volatility, we can separate the 152 drawdown events into two distinct categories: minor pullbacks under 5% and deep drawdowns of 5% or more. Our data shows that 133 of the 152 historical events remained under the 5% threshold, while only 19 events crossed into deeper territory.

By analyzing the aggregate duration of all events, we can calculate the average lifespan of these minor pullbacks. The total duration across all 152 historical events is approximately 3,496 days, while the 19 deep drawdowns account for 2,337 of those days. This leaves 1,159 days of cumulative drawdown time distributed across the 133 minor pullbacks.

Consequently, the average duration for a minor pullback under 5% is only 8.7 days. This stark contrast highlights the bimodal nature of SPMO's drawdown history. The vast majority of pullbacks, representing 87.5% of all historical events, are extremely short-lived and resolve in less than 9 days on average.

However, once a pullback breaches the 5% threshold, the average duration jumps from 8.7 days to 123 days: a fourteen-fold increase. This mathematical reality is crucial for interpreting the current 35-day drawdown. Because the ETF has already crossed the -5% threshold and reached -6.5%, it has exited the minor pullback regime and entered the deep drawdown regime.

This transition explains why a 35-day duration, while long compared to the overall average of 23 days, is still relatively early when compared to the 123-day average of its true historical peers.

The Mechanics of the Drawdown Severity Score™

The Drawdown Severity Score™ is a proprietary metric that ranges from 0 to 10. The score is designed to normalize drawdown risk by comparing the current state of an asset to its entire historical distribution. Rather than looking at drawdown depth in isolation, our model evaluates depth, duration, and velocity simultaneously.

A score of 0 indicates that the asset is at its all-time high, representing zero drawdown risk. Scores between 0.1 and 2.0 generally fall within the green zone, indicating low to Slightly Elevated risk. The yellow zone represents moderate risk, while the red zone indicates severe drawdown conditions.

The current score of 1.5 places SPMO at the upper end of the green zone, specifically designated as Slightly Elevated. This score reflects a balancing act between the -6.5% depth, which is historically deep for this ETF, and the stabilizing price action over the 35-day period. As the asset stabilizes, the velocity component of the score decreases, allowing the overall severity score to drop even if the price has not yet fully recovered to $161.66.

Data Limits: Understanding the Scope of This Analysis

This analysis relies exclusively on quantitative price and drawdown data. We do not incorporate external market narratives, macroeconomic indicators, or fundamental valuations. Our model evaluates the asset solely based on its historical performance patterns and its relationship to its own all-time high.

By focusing strictly on price action and drawdown history, we avoid speculative claims about market direction. The Drawdown Severity Score™ is a backward-looking and current-state metric designed to quantify risk, not to predict future price movements with absolute certainty.

Investors should understand that historical performance does not guarantee future results. While the 19 prior occurrences of 5% or deeper drawdowns provide a statistical baseline, each market cycle possesses unique characteristics that may diverge from historical averages.

What to Watch: Key Severity Thresholds

To monitor the progress of this drawdown, several specific levels require attention. The primary benchmark is the all-time high of $161.66, which represents the ultimate recovery target. A move back toward this level will systematically reduce the drawdown percentage and lower the severity score.

Conversely, we must watch for any renewed downward pressure that could reverse the recent improvement. If the price falls below the current level of $151.17, the drawdown will deepen beyond -6.5%. A deeper decline would likely push the Drawdown Severity Score™ back above 1.5 and trigger a return to the yellow zone.

The threshold for the yellow zone varies based on the speed and depth of the price decline. However, a persistent move away from the peak will keep the asset in an elevated risk category. We will continue to track these metrics as the current 35-day drawdown progresses.