SJM Is Down 24% over 1,280 Days. What History Says

SJM Is Down 24% over 1,280 Days. What History Says

The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) is down 24% from its all-time high as of July 13, 2026, and has been falling for approximately 1,280 days. The Drawdown Severity Score™ stands at 5.3, placing SJM in the red zone after moving from the yellow zone. In 6 comparable prior drops of this depth, SJM took an average of 1,048 days to recover.

Current Severity and the Red Zone Shift

The transition of SJM from the yellow zone to the red zone marks a shift in the stock's risk profile. As of July 13, 2026, the stock trades at $110.53, which is down exactly 24.4% from its all-time high of $146.11. This decline has persisted for 1,279 days, representing a prolonged period of downward pressure.

The Drawdown Severity Score™ of 5.3 indicates that this drawdown has entered the "Strong" category. This proprietary metric balances the absolute depth of the decline against its duration, comparing the current pattern to the asset's entire trading history. A score of 5.3 shows that the current combination of a 24.4% drop and a 1,279-day duration is highly unusual for SJM.

Historically, SJM has behaved as a low-volatility asset with brief, shallow pullbacks. The average historical drawdown duration across all recorded events is only 63 days. The current duration of 1,279 days is more than 20 times longer than that historical average, highlighting the exceptional nature of this current cycle.

Historical Context of SJM's Drawdown Events

To understand the scale of the current decline, we must analyze SJM's broader historical record. Our data shows that SJM has experienced 159 total historical drawdown events. The vast majority of these events were minor fluctuations that resolved quickly.

The average maximum drawdown across all 159 historical events is -4.1%. The current drawdown of -24.4% is nearly six times deeper than this historical average. This indicates that the current sell-off is not a typical pullback, but rather a major historical outlier.

The data in this table shows how far the current price action has deviated from SJM's historical baseline. The average duration of 63 days indicates that SJM typically recovers from its pullbacks within approximately two months. The current 1,279-day period represents an extreme extension of this timeline, indicating that the stock is experiencing a highly persistent depressed state.

Analysis of 20%+ Drops in SJM History

Major declines are rare for SJM. In its entire historical record, SJM has dropped by 20% or more only 6 times. This means that only 3.77% of all historical drawdown events have reached the depth of the current decline.

When SJM does experience a drop of this magnitude, the recovery process is historically slow. The average duration of these 6 comparable drops is 1,048 days. This long historical duration shows that once SJM breaks below the 20% threshold, it typically requires years to consolidate and reclaim its previous highs.

As of July 13, 2026, the current drawdown has lasted 1,279 days, which is 231 days longer than the historical average of 1,048 days for SJM's 20%+ drops. This indicates that the current cycle is proving to be more stubborn than the typical major pullback in SJM's history. The stock has already spent more time in this drawdown than it did during its average historical major decline.

Data Limits and Methodology

Our analysis relies strictly on verified price, drawdown, severity, and historical comparison data. We do not incorporate external factors such as corporate earnings, analyst ratings, management decisions, or macroeconomic events. This data-only approach allows us to isolate the mathematical realities of SJM's price behavior without the influence of market narratives.

By focusing purely on the historical distribution of SJM's 159 drawdown events, we can evaluate the current situation objectively. However, readers should note that past performance does not guarantee future results. Price-based metrics and historical recovery averages provide statistical context, but they do not capture shifts in fundamental business health or broader market dynamics.

What to Watch Moving Forward

Investors tracking SJM should monitor several key data markers to determine if the technical picture is improving or deteriorating.

First, observe the Drawdown Severity Score™. A move back below the 5.0 threshold would signal a transition from the red zone back to the yellow zone, indicating a reduction in drawdown severity. Conversely, a rising severity score would indicate that the duration and depth are continuing to compound.

Second, track the specific price levels required to break the drawdown. SJM's all-time high of $146.11 remains the ultimate target. To fully erase the current drawdown, the stock must rise from its current price of $110.53 back to $146.11, which requires a gain of approximately 32.2% from current levels.

Third, monitor the duration milestones. As the current drawdown of 1,279 days continues to stretch past the historical 1,048-day average for 20%+ drops, each passing day sets a new precedent for SJM's recovery timeline. Tracking whether the stock can establish a stable floor or if it continues to drift lower will provide critical context for evaluating SJM's long-term price behavior.