Sempra Is Down 7% in 52 Days. What History Says.

SRE Is Down 7% in 52 Days. What History Says.

Sempra (SRE) is now down 7% from its all-time high as of June 24, 2026, having just exited the yellow zone after 52 days. The Drawdown Severity Score™ has improved to 1.7. In 34 comparable prior recoveries, the stock moved to the next zone within an average of 234 days.

Sempra's Journey Out of the Yellow Zone

The current drawdown began after Sempra reached its all-time high of $99.75. Over the course of 52 days, the stock faced downward pressure, eventually sliding into the yellow zone. This zone indicates a heightened risk regime where the drawdown exceeds typical historical fluctuations.

As of June 24, 2026, the stock has rebounded to $92.73, which represents a -7.0% drawdown from its peak. This upward movement has successfully pushed the stock back into the green zone. As of the data date, the Drawdown Severity Score™ stands at 1.7, indicating that risk has moderated to a slightly elevated state.

Historically, Sempra has demonstrated resilience during market pullbacks. Our data shows that across 223 total historical drawdown events, the average maximum drawdown for the stock is -3.4%. The current -7.0% drawdown is roughly double that historical average, highlighting why the stock previously triggered a yellow zone alert.

This transition out of the yellow zone is a key milestone for long-term investors. It suggests that the intense selling pressure that characterized the initial leg of the decline has begun to dissipate. The stock is now trading in a more stable risk regime, though it remains below its previous peak.

Catalysts and Corporate Developments Driving the Recovery

The recovery in Sempra's share price coincides with specific operational milestones and institutional buying activity. According to Yahoo Finance, Sempra has secured multiple Texas grid wins and achieved milestones at its Port Arthur LNG export facility. These developments have helped alleviate concerns regarding the utility's capital expenditure pipeline and long-term growth prospects.

Institutional backing has also provided a supportive tailwind for the stock during this recovery period. MarketBeat reported that HSBC Holdings PLC recently boosted its equity position in Sempra. Additionally, Miller Howard Investments Inc. NY acquired a new stake in the company, signaling renewed institutional interest as the stock stabilized.

Infrastructure expansion remains a central driver of the company's long-term strategy. Simply Wall St reported that Sempra's valuation is being closely watched following the integration of its new LNG pipeline and Texas transmission projects. These projects are designed to meet the expanding energy demands of the Texas industrial sector and global LNG markets.

The execution of these capital-intensive projects has historically been a double-edged sword for utility stocks. While they promise regulated returns, they also require large debt loads. Investors have responded favorably to Sempra's ability to manage its balance sheet while executing these grid and export upgrades.

Historical Valuation Context

As of the valuation snapshot on 2026-06-24, Sempra's valuation multiples present an interesting contrast to its price drawdown. The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio stands at 4.4, placing it in the 98th percentile of its own daily history since 2006-06-23, well above its historical median of 2.5. Similarly, the EV-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is 14.4, ranking in the 74th percentile of its historical range since 2006-06-23, compared to its historical median of 12.7.

How the Current Drawdown Compares to Sempra's History

To put the current recovery in context, we must examine how Sempra has behaved during previous market corrections. Our proprietary database has tracked every price decline for Sempra since its listing. This historical perspective allows us to compare the current 52-day event against decades of trading data.

The table below outlines how the current drawdown compares to historical averages and similar deep pullbacks.

Our data shows that Sempra has dropped by 5% or more from its peak exactly 34 times in its history. When the stock experiences a drop of this magnitude, the average recovery duration is 234 days. This historical baseline suggests that while the transition to the green zone is a positive short-term signal, full recoveries to all-time highs often require a multi-month consolidation period.

The average duration of all 223 historical drawdown events is just 43 days. Because the current drawdown has lasted 52 days, it has already outlasted the typical Sempra pullback. This extended duration reflects the macroeconomic headwinds facing regulated utilities, particularly fluctuating interest rates and rising infrastructure costs.

Analyzing the Risk Profile and Current Position

The transition from the yellow zone to the green zone indicates a shift in the stock's risk regime. The yellow zone represents a period where selling pressure has pushed the asset outside its normal volatility parameters. For a defensive utility stock like Sempra, entering the yellow zone is historically rare and typically points to sector-wide stress or specific regulatory hurdles.

A Drawdown Severity Score™ of 1.7 means the stock is now experiencing only slightly elevated risk. This score is derived from our proprietary algorithms, which analyze both the depth and the speed of the price drop relative to historical patterns. The moderation of this severity score suggests that the worst of the immediate selling pressure has subsided.

Utility stocks often trade as bond proxies due to their dividend yields and regulated cash flows. Consequently, capital flows in this sector are highly sensitive to monetary policy. The stabilization of Sempra's share price at $92.73 suggests that the market has digested recent macroeconomic data and capital expenditure forecasts.

Sempra's diversified business model has also helped mitigate downside risk during this period. The company operates regulated electric and gas utilities in highly populated regions of California and Texas. This geographic diversification helps insulate the parent company from localized regulatory or weather-related disruptions.

Furthermore, the regulatory environments in California and Texas offer distinct risk profiles. Sempra California operates under the jurisdiction of the California Public Utilities Commission, which features rigorous environmental mandates. Meanwhile, Sempra Texas operates through Oncor, benefiting from a rapidly growing population and a supportive regulatory framework managed by the Public Utility Commission of Texas.

Key Thresholds and What to Watch Next

Investors tracking Sempra should monitor several key price and severity thresholds in the coming weeks. The primary objective for a full recovery is the all-time high of $99.75. Reaching this level would require a 7.6% gain from the current price of $92.73, which would officially reset the drawdown clock to zero.

On the downside, a reversal of the current recovery trend would be marked by a return to the yellow zone. This would occur if the Drawdown Severity Score™ climbs back above the green zone threshold. Our models will continue to track these daily price movements and update the Drawdown Severity Score™ accordingly.

The historical data of 34 comparable drops suggests that patience is often required during these recovery phases. While the initial bounce out of the yellow zone is a constructive technical development, the road back to all-time highs has historically averaged 234 days for drops exceeding 5%. Investors should continue to monitor Sempra's progress as it navigates this recovery period.