RTX Is Down 5% After 80 Days. What History Says.

RTX Is Down 5% After 83 Days. What History Says.

RTX Corporation (RTX) is now down 5% from its all-time high as of July 7, 2026, having just exited the yellow zone after 83 days. Our data shows the Drawdown Severity Score™ has improved to 1.1, placing the stock back in the green zone. In 59 comparable prior drops of 5% or more, the stock spent an average of 206 days in drawdown before fully recovering.

Recovery Context and Peer Comparison

The transition from the yellow zone to the green zone represents a stabilization in selling pressure. In our system, the yellow zone indicates elevated risk where downward momentum begins to outpace standard market noise. Reclaiming the green zone, which is marked by a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 1.1, indicates that buyers have stepped in to support the stock.

When compared to other large-cap aerospace and defense peers, RTX's recovery speed shows unique characteristics. Large defense prime contractors often experience long, drawn-out drawdown periods due to the multi-year nature of their government contracts. For instance, peer companies like Lockheed Martin (LMT) and General Dynamics (GD) historically exhibit slower, more deliberate recovery curves when recovering from mid-single-digit pullbacks.

The table below outlines how the current drawdown metrics for RTX compare to historical averages and broader industry benchmarks.

The Numbers: Exact Severity Improvement and Timeline

The peak of the current cycle occurred when RTX reached its all-time high of $212.16. Over the subsequent 83 days, the stock experienced selling pressure that dragged its price down to $201.52 as of July 7, 2026. This decline represents a drawdown of exactly -5.0% from its peak.

During this 83-day period, the stock crossed into the yellow zone as the severity score escalated. The recent price stabilization has now pushed the severity score down to 1.1, which is categorized as Slightly Elevated. This movement signals that the worst of the immediate selling pressure has abated, even though the stock remains below its historical peak.

Historical Patterns: How RTX Behaves in a Drawdown

To understand the significance of this recovery, we must examine the extensive historical record of RTX. Since 2006, our database has tracked a total of 290 historical drawdown events for this stock. This large sample size provides a highly reliable baseline for evaluating current price behavior.

Historically, the average maximum drawdown for RTX is -4.4%, with an average drawdown duration of 48 days. The current drawdown of -5.0% is deeper than the historical average, and its 83-day duration has lasted nearly twice as long as a typical minor pullback. This prolonged duration explains why the stock spent time in the yellow zone before recovering.

However, when we isolate more substantial pullbacks, the historical context shifts. RTX has dropped by 5% or more from its peak exactly 59 times in its history. Among those 59 comparable events, the average duration of the drawdown was 206 days.

Compared to that 206-day historical average, the current 83-day recovery progress is tracking well ahead of schedule. Historically, only a minority of 5% pullbacks resolve themselves in fewer than 90 days. The rapid transition back to the green zone suggests stronger-than-usual underlying support for the stock during this cycle.

Valuation Context: Multiples Versus Historical Ranges

To understand this recovery within a broader historical frame, we look to the company's valuation multiples as of 2026-07-04. The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio for RTX stands at 3.0, which sits in the 99th percentile of its own daily P/S record since 2006-07-03, well above its historical median of 0.94. Similarly, the EV-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is 21.4, placing it in the 90th percentile of its own daily EV/EBITDA record since 2006-07-03, compared to a historical median of 7.1. This shows that while the stock has experienced a -5.0% price drawdown, its valuation multiples remain near the upper boundary of their historical ranges.

Fundamental Drivers: Stinger Missiles and Earnings Outlook

Recent fundamental developments explain why the stock has found support and recovered to the green zone. According to a report by Seeking Alpha, RTX plans to double its global Stinger missile production to meet rising international demand. This production expansion provides visible, long-term revenue streams that support the company's future backlog.

Additionally, foreignpolicyjournal.com reported that the RTX Corporation stock price has outpaced the S&P 500 as its overall earnings outlook strengthens. This optimism is balanced by broader market dynamics, as Barchart.com noted that investors are closely watching what to expect from RTX Corporation's Q2 2026 earnings report.

While the general trend is positive, some near-term friction remains. MarketWatch reported that RTX stock underperformed some of its direct competitors on specific trading days despite booking daily gains. Furthermore, analysts at Trefis highlighted three distinct forces that could shake RTX stock, including supply chain constraints and shifting defense budget allocations.

Remaining Distance: The Path to Reclaiming All-Time Highs

While the transition to the green zone is a positive technical development, RTX is not yet fully recovered. The stock must rise by approximately 5.28% from its current price of $201.52 to reclaim its all-time high of $212.16.

Our historical data shows that once a stock enters the green zone with a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 1.1, the probability of a full recovery increases. However, external factors such as the upcoming Q2 2026 earnings release will likely dictate whether the stock can maintain this momentum. Investors should continue to monitor the severity score to see if the stock can sustain its position in the green zone or if it risks slipping back into elevated risk territory.