Ross Stores Is Down 13%. What History Says.

Ross Stores Is Down 13% in 10 Days. What History Says.

Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) is down 13% from its all-time high as of June 29, 2026, and has been falling for 10 days. The Drawdown Severity Score™ stands at 2.5, placing it in the yellow zone. In 38 comparable prior drops of 10% or more, the stock took an average of 305 days to recover.

Ross Stores Enters the Yellow Severity Zone

The move from the green zone to the yellow zone marks a shift in the price stability of Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST). As of June 29, 2026, our data shows the stock closed at $208.83, down from its all-time high of $240.13. This decline represents a total drawdown of -13.0% over a span of 10 days.

The Drawdown Severity Score™ of 2.5 indicates a moderately elevated risk profile compared to the asset's typical price behavior. The transition to the yellow zone indicates that the stock has moved beyond normal, daily price fluctuations. While a green zone designation reflects standard market noise, the yellow zone highlights a more pronounced correction phase.

To return to its previous peak of $240.13, the stock must rise from its current price of $208.83. This requires a gain of 14.99% to fully erase the current drawdown. Investors tracking drawdown metrics use these recovery calculations to assess the mathematical effort required to reclaim previous highs.

Historical Context of Ross Stores Drawdowns

Analyzing the historical price behavior of Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) provides essential context for evaluating the current decline. Over its trading history, the stock has experienced a total of 301 historical drawdown events. These events encompass all measured pullbacks from previous peaks, ranging from minor fluctuations to prolonged corrections.

The average historical maximum drawdown for the stock across all 301 events is -5.3%. The current drawdown of -13.0% is more than double this historical average. This deviation highlights that the current pullback is significantly deeper than the typical retreat experienced by the asset.

Furthermore, the average drawdown duration across all historical events is 47 days. The current drawdown has lasted only 10 days as of June 29, 2026. This indicates that while the current decline is exceptionally sharp, it is still in its early stages relative to the historical average lifespan of a standard pullback.

Comparing the Current Pullback to Historical 10% Drops

To understand what might happen next, we can isolate prior drawdowns of similar magnitude. Our data shows that Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) has dropped by 10% or more from a peak a total of 38 times in its history. These comparable events provide a statistical baseline for analyzing the duration and recovery path of deeper corrections.

The average duration of these comparable 10%+ drops is 305 days. This historical average includes both the time spent sliding from the peak to the trough and the time required to climb back to the previous high. This prolonged duration suggests that once the stock breaches the 10% drawdown threshold, the recovery process has historically been a multi-month endeavor rather than a rapid rebound.

Below is a comparison of the current drawdown metrics against the historical averages for Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST):

The historical data shows that deeper drawdowns require significantly more time to resolve. While the average pullback of any size resolves in under seven weeks, pullbacks exceeding 10% have historically required more than ten months to reach full recovery.

Valuation Multiples and Historical Percentiles

As of the valuation snapshot on 2026-06-28, the price drawdown of -13.0% contrasts with the asset's historical valuation multiples, which remain elevated relative to its own past record. The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio stands at 2.9, placing it in the 95th percentile of its own daily P/S record since 2006-06-26, well above its historical median of 1.8. Similarly, the EV-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is 18.2, which sits in the 89th percentile of its historical daily record since 2006-06-26, compared to a historical median of 11.7.

Understanding the Limits of Price-Based Drawdown Analysis

This analysis relies strictly on historical price and drawdown data for Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST). We do not incorporate external fundamental developments, macroeconomic indicators, or industry-specific trends into these calculations. The Drawdown Severity Score™ is a purely mathematical representation of price behavior relative to the asset's own historical patterns.

Historical performance and statistical averages do not guarantee future outcomes. While prior 10% drawdowns averaged 305 days to resolve, the current drawdown may resolve faster or slower depending on market conditions. This framework is designed to provide objective, historical risk context rather than to predict specific future price movements.

By focusing entirely on the verified price record, we eliminate subjective narratives and speculation. This allows investors to evaluate the current pullback against a clean, data-driven baseline of how the stock has behaved during similar historical events.

Key Metrics and Thresholds to Watch

Investors tracking the risk profile of Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) can monitor specific price levels to identify potential shifts in drawdown severity. A deepening drawdown would push the stock further into the yellow zone or potentially into the red zone. Conversely, upward price movement would signal progress toward stabilizing and eventually exiting the drawdown.

Below are the key price thresholds based on the all-time high of $240.13:

• 10% Drawdown Level ($216.12): Reclaiming this price level would bring the drawdown back into single-digit territory, signaling a potential move back toward the green zone.
• Current Price ($208.83): The baseline price as of June 29, 2026, representing a -13.0% drawdown.
• 15% Drawdown Level ($204.11): A close below this level would represent a deepening correction and could trigger an increase in the severity score.
• 20% Drawdown Level ($192.10): A decline to this level would represent a major correction, a threshold the stock has crossed in only a fraction of its historical pullbacks.

Monitoring these specific price points provides objective markers for tracking the stock's progress. As price fluctuations occur, the Drawdown Severity Score™ will adjust to reflect the changing risk profile.