QCOM Is Down 19% in 9 Days. What History Says Now

QCOM Dropped 19% in 9 Days. What History Says

As of June 11, 2026, QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) has stabilized its risk profile within the yellow zone, showing a slight severity improvement to a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 3.1 while remaining 19.1% below its all-time high. This current 9-day pullback represents an elevated risk profile but remains within the historical boundaries of the asset's typical deep correction patterns. Our data shows that while the stock has experienced rapid downward momentum over the past week and a half, its severity score continues to signal an elevated rather than extreme risk state.

The Anatomy of the Current Drawdown

The current pullback for QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) began after the stock reached its all-time high of $251.02. As of June 11, 2026, the price has declined to $202.96, representing a total peak-to-trough drop of -19.1%. This entire decline has unfolded over a span of just 9 days, indicating a highly compressed timeline for a correction of this magnitude.

A drop of this speed represents a steep daily rate of decline. On average, the stock has shed more than 2% of its value per day since peaking. This rapid descent explains why the Drawdown Severity Score™ has quickly reached 3.1, placing the stock firmly in the yellow zone.

The yellow zone indicates elevated risk where price action has deviated significantly from the historical average drawdown depth. However, because the stock moved from the yellow zone to the yellow zone, the risk classification has remained stable despite the ongoing price adjustments. This suggests that the velocity of the decline, while rapid, has not yet pushed the stock into a more critical risk tier.

Where QCOM Was: Peak Severity and Drawdown Depth

To understand the current -19.1% drawdown, we must compare it to the historical baseline of the asset. Our data shows that across 112 total historical drawdown events, the average max drawdown for the stock is -9.9%. The current decline of -19.1% is nearly double the depth of a typical historical pullback.

In terms of duration, a typical drawdown for the stock lasts an average of 104 days from the initial peak to a full recovery of the all-time high. The current drawdown has only lasted 9 days. This massive divergence between the current duration (9 days) and the historical average duration (104 days) suggests that the current correction is in its early stages relative to historical recovery cycles.

Historically, drawdowns that exceed the average depth of -9.9% require a longer period of consolidation. Because the current drop has occurred so quickly, the market has had very little time to establish stable support levels between the all-time high of $251.02 and the current price of $202.96.

Historical Drawdown Comparisons

When analyzing corrections of this magnitude, looking at prior comparable events provides essential risk context. Historically, the stock has dropped by 15% or more from its peak exactly 20 times.

The table below outlines how the current drawdown compares to all historical drawdowns and to the subset of drawdowns that crossed the 15% threshold.

Our data shows that when the stock crosses the 15% drawdown threshold, the recovery timeline extends dramatically. The average duration of these 20 comparable drops is 541 days. This historical average of nearly one and a half years to regain previous highs highlights the potential for prolonged recovery periods once a correction exceeds typical minor pullback levels.

The current 9-day duration is a mere fraction of the historical 541-day average for comparable drops. This indicates that while the price drop has been swift, a full recovery based on historical precedents may require a sustained period of time.

Quantitative Valuation Snapshot

To put the price drawdown into historical perspective, we look at where the stock's valuation multiples sit relative to its own history. As of 2026-06-11, the Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio for QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) stands at 4.7, which ranks in the 44th percentile of its own daily record since 2006-06-12, slightly below its historical median of 5.0. Meanwhile, its EV-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is 16.3, placing it in the 59th percentile of its daily history since 2006-06-12, just above its historical median of 14.7. These figures indicate that while the price has declined by -19.1%, the underlying valuation multiples remain within their typical historical ranges.

Methodology and Data Scope

This drawdown analysis relies strictly on historical price and drawdown data compiled from public market records. We calculate the Drawdown Severity Score™ using a proprietary algorithm that weighs the depth of the current drop, the speed of the decline, and how the current movement compares to the asset's historical distribution of drawdowns.

Our analysis does not incorporate external qualitative factors such as corporate earnings reports, macroeconomic indicators, analyst ratings, or broader market sentiment. By focusing entirely on price-based risk metrics, we aim to provide an objective look at where the stock stands relative to its own historical volatility patterns.

Investors can use these quantitative baselines to understand the historical probability of various recovery timelines. However, past performance does not guarantee future results, and historical averages represent a distribution of outcomes rather than a fixed path.

Risk Thresholds and What to Watch

As the stock continues to navigate the yellow zone, several key price levels and drawdown thresholds will dictate whether the risk profile stabilizes or worsens.

• The -20% Drawdown Level ($200.82): A decline to $200.82 would mark a psychological and technical milestone of a 20% correction from the peak. Crossing this level could trigger a shift in the severity score, potentially pushing it higher within the yellow zone.
• The -25% Drawdown Level ($188.27): If selling pressure accelerates, a drop to $188.27 would represent a 25% decline from the all-time high. Historically, drawdowns of this depth are less frequent and often require even longer recovery periods.
• The Drawdown Severity Score™ Thresholds: The current severity score is 3.1. If the score rises toward 4.0 or higher, it would signal that the drawdown is entering a more critical risk phase, potentially transitioning the stock into the orange zone.
• Recovery Signals: Conversely, a sustained move back above $215.00 would begin to shrink the drawdown percentage. This upward movement would lower the severity score and signal that the stock is beginning the recovery process toward its previous peak of $251.02.

We will continue to monitor these metrics as new price data becomes available.