PulteGroup Is Down 12% After 653 Days. What History Says

PulteGroup Is Down 12% After 653 Days. What History Says

PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) is down 12.0% from its all-time high as of August 14, 2026, and has been in this drawdown for exactly 653 days. Our data shows that the Drawdown Severity Score™ stands at 2.0, placing the stock in the Moderately Elevated yellow zone after migrating from the green zone. In 28 comparable prior drops of 10% or more, the stock took an average of 459 days to recover.

Current Drawdown Severity and Zone Transition

The transition of PulteGroup from the green zone to the yellow zone represents a shift in the stock's risk profile. The green zone typically denotes normal market noise and minor pullbacks that align with typical asset volatility. Moving into the yellow zone indicates that the drawdown has surpassed routine fluctuations and entered a phase of moderately elevated severity.

As of August 14, 2026, the stock trades at $130.18, which is exactly 12.0% below its all-time high of $147.88. This shift is reflected in the Drawdown Severity Score™, which has reached 2.0. This score indicates that the current decline is no longer a standard short-term dip, but rather a more prolonged contraction.

The duration of this drawdown is prolonged, having persisted for 653 days. This extended timeframe suggests that the stock has struggled to regain its previous momentum, remaining pinned below its historical peak for nearly two years.

Historical Drawdown Analysis

To understand the significance of the current 12.0% decline, we must analyze the historical distribution of PulteGroup's drawdown events. Our database has tracked a total of 144 historical drawdown events for this stock. Across all 144 events, the average maximum drawdown depth is -8.3%, with an average drawdown duration of 97 days.

The current drawdown of -12.0% has already exceeded the historical average depth of -8.3% by 3.7 percentage points. More strikingly, the current duration of 653 days is more than six times longer than the historical average duration of 97 days. This stark divergence highlights that the current correction is an outlier in terms of duration, even if the depth remains relatively moderate compared to historical extremes.

We can compare these different historical metrics directly to see how the current event sits within the stock's historical footprint. The table below outlines these key figures:

When the stock's drawdown depth crosses the 10% threshold, the recovery timeline lengthens dramatically. In the 28 historical instances where the drawdown reached 10% or more, the average duration to resolve the drawdown was 459 days. The current duration of 653 days has already surpassed this historical average for comparable deep drops by 194 days.

Macroeconomic Context and Historical Limitations

While statistical averages provide a valuable baseline, we must note that these 28 comparable historical events occurred across a wide span of time since 2006. During this multi-decade period, the macroeconomic landscape and interest rate environments have shifted dramatically. Homebuilders like PulteGroup are highly sensitive to external economic factors, particularly mortgage rates, credit availability, and broader housing demand.

The historical dataset includes periods of extremely low interest rates, as well as aggressive monetary tightening cycles and the structural disruption of the 2008 housing crisis. A drawdown occurring during a low-rate environment may resolve much faster than one occurring during a period of high mortgage rates. Therefore, these 28 historical events should be viewed as a structural record of how the stock behaves during significant pullbacks, rather than a precise roadmap for the current cycle.

Our data-driven approach focuses strictly on these historical boundaries to give investors objective reference points. By comparing the current 653-day period to the historical 459-day average for 10% drops, we can see that the stock is experiencing an unusually sluggish recovery phase relative to its own long-term history.

Historical Recovery Profiles

Analyzing how PHM has historically behaved once it enters a 10% or deeper drawdown reveals important patterns. In the 28 times this has occurred, the stock's path back to its previous high was rarely linear. Prolonged consolidations are common once the severity score transitions into the yellow zone.

The fact that the current drawdown has lasted 653 days indicates that the stock is in the upper tail of historical durations. While the average comparable drop resolved in 459 days, some historical cycles took significantly longer, particularly when the broader housing sector faced structural headwinds.

Investors tracking the severity score can use these historical intervals to gauge whether the stock is exhibiting signs of stabilization or persistent weakness. A higher severity score indicates a deeper deviation from historical norms, while a stabilizing score suggests the stock may be carving out a bottom.

Valuation Context

Despite a 12.0% price drawdown, the valuation metrics remain elevated relative to the company's historical footprint. As of the valuation snapshot date of 2026-08-15, which carries a one-day lag from our price data, the Price-to-Sales ratio sits at 1.5, placing it in the 95th percentile of its daily history since 2006-08-14, well above its historical median of 1.0. Meanwhile, the EV-to-EBITDA ratio of 10.5 resides in the 67th percentile, indicating it remains within its typical historical range compared to its long-term median of 8.6.

Key Price Thresholds to Watch

To evaluate the potential path forward, we can identify specific price levels that would alter the current drawdown profile. These thresholds are calculated directly from the stock's historical averages and its peak price of $147.88.

First, to return to its historical average drawdown depth of -8.3%, the stock must rise to $135.61. Reaching this level would represent a partial recovery and a potential shift back toward the green zone, signaling a reduction in overall risk.

Second, to fully clear the drawdown and register a new all-time high, the stock must reach $147.88. Crossing this level would reset the drawdown duration to zero and return the Drawdown Severity Score™ to its minimum value.

Conversely, if the stock falls below its current price of $130.18, the drawdown will deepen. Any further decline would push the severity score higher, potentially moving the stock closer to the red zone, while continuing to extend the 653-day drawdown duration.

Analysis Methodology and Limits

Our model relies exclusively on historical price and drawdown data to evaluate risk levels. We do not incorporate external factors such as company earnings, analyst ratings, or macroeconomic indicators. This quantitative focus ensures an objective analysis of the stock's price behavior relative to its own history.

While the historical record of 144 drawdown events provides a robust statistical baseline, it is important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future outcomes. Market dynamics can shift, and a prolonged drawdown can persist beyond historical averages. We provide these data points to help investors frame the current pullback within a clear historical context.