Prologis Is Down 8% After 1,400 Days. What History Says

Prologis Is Down 8% After 1,400 Days. What History Suggests

As of June 22, 2026, Prologis, Inc. (PLD) has transitioned from the yellow zone to the green zone as its Drawdown Severity Score™ improved to 1.8. The stock closed at $143.83, representing a -7.5% drawdown from its all-time high of $155.41. This shift indicates that the asset's drawdown risk has moderated to a level classified as Slightly Elevated.

The Transition from Yellow to Green Zone

The movement of PLD from the yellow zone to the green zone marks a change in our risk classification framework. The yellow zone indicates moderate drawdown severity, where price declines and duration begin to deviate from historical norms. By crossing back into the green zone, the stock's price action aligns with a lower risk profile.

Our data shows that PLD has spent 1,442 days in this current drawdown cycle. The Drawdown Severity Score™ of 1.8 reflects that while the duration is highly extended, the depth of the decline remains mild. This combination of an extremely long duration and a shallow depth of -7.5% creates a unique risk profile for the asset.

The green zone classification means the model views the current pullback as a low-severity event. The severity score of 1.8 indicates that the rate of price stabilization has reduced the likelihood of immediate further downside based on historical patterns. This transition suggests that the selling pressure has exhausted its momentum relative to the peak.

Prologis's Historical Drawdown Profile

To understand the significance of the current -7.5% drawdown, we must analyze the historical price behavior of PLD. Our database tracks a total of 219 historical drawdown events for this asset. These events provide a robust statistical baseline for evaluating how the stock typically behaves during periods of decline.

The historical average maximum drawdown for PLD across all 219 recorded events is -3.5%. This means that the typical pullback for the stock is minor, representing a quick deviation from its peak before resuming an upward trajectory. The current decline of -7.5% is more than double this historical average depth.

In terms of duration, the contrast is even more pronounced. The average drawdown duration across all 219 historical events is 39 days. The current cycle has lasted 1,442 days, which is more than 36 times longer than the historical average. This extreme duration indicates a prolonged period of consolidation that deviates significantly from the stock's typical behavior.

This discrepancy between depth and duration is a key driver of the current Drawdown Severity Score™. While a -7.5% decline is deeper than the average -3.5% pullback, it is not historically extreme. However, the fact that the stock has remained below its all-time high for 1,442 days represents an unprecedented period of stagnation for PLD.

Analysis of Comparable 5% Drawdowns

To establish a more relevant comparison, we can isolate historical events where PLD experienced a drawdown of 5% or more. This filter helps eliminate minor daily fluctuations and focuses on more substantial pullbacks. Our data shows that PLD has dropped 5% or more from its peak a total of 38 times.

Out of the 219 total historical drawdown events, only 38 reached a depth of 5% or more. This means that 181 events, or 82.6% of all historical drawdowns, were kept under 5%. The current -7.5% drawdown therefore sits in the top 17.4% of all drawdown events by depth.

The average duration of these comparable 5% or deeper drops is 188 days. This is significantly longer than the overall average of 39 days, showing that once PLD breaches the 5% threshold, the recovery process typically slows down. Even when compared to this longer benchmark, the current drawdown of 1,442 days is highly anomalous, lasting nearly eight times longer than the historical average for comparable drops.

The following table contrasts the key metrics of the current drawdown cycle with PLD's historical averages:

This data highlights that while the depth of the current drawdown is relatively contained, the duration has entered uncharted territory. The transition to the green zone suggests that despite the long duration, the price stability around the -7.5% level has prevented the severity score from escalating.

Valuation Context and Historical Multiples

As of 2026-06-22, the price drawdown of -7.5% contrasts with the asset's historical valuation multiples, which remain elevated relative to its own historical range. The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio stands at 15.0, placing it in the 74th percentile of its own daily P/S record since 2006-06-19, which is above its historical median of 12.0. Meanwhile, the EV-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is 21.8, positioning it in the 59th percentile of its own daily record since 2006-06-19, slightly above its historical median of 20.6. This indicates that while the stock price remains below its peak, its valuation multiples sit within the upper half of their own historical distributions.

Methodology and Analysis Limits

This drawdown analysis is based strictly on historical price and drawdown data. We do not incorporate external factors, macroeconomic variables, or industry-specific trends into our models. The Drawdown Severity Score™ is a mathematical representation of price action, comparing the current decline's depth and duration against the asset's historical distribution.

By focusing solely on price and drawdown history, we provide an objective, data-driven perspective. This methodology avoids the subjective assumptions often found in causal analyses. Investors can use these metrics to understand where the current price action sits within the asset's historical risk framework.

Analyzing the pure mathematical properties of the price curve removes cognitive biases. Drawdown analysis differs from traditional volatility metrics like standard deviation because it measures asymmetrical downside risk: the peak-to-trough decline and the time required to recover. This distinction is crucial for understanding capital preservation and the duration of capital impairment.

Technical Thresholds and Risk Levels to Watch

To monitor PLD's progress and potential shifts in risk, investors can track specific price and drawdown thresholds. To fully recover and reach its all-time high, PLD must rise from its current price of $143.83 to $155.41, representing a required gain of exactly 8.05%.

Several key drawdown thresholds serve as mathematical benchmarks if the stock experiences further downward pressure. A 10% drawdown from the all-time high of $155.41 would correspond to a price of $139.87. A deeper 15% drawdown would bring the price down to $132.10, while a 20% drawdown, often associated with a formal correction, would put the price at $124.33.

Conversely, we can monitor the price levels required to reach smaller drawdown depths. To reduce the drawdown to -5%, the stock must reach $147.64. To reach a -3% drawdown, the price must rise to $150.75, and a -1% drawdown corresponds to a price of $153.86.

Crossing these levels would alter the mathematical inputs of our model. A drop below $139.87, representing a 10% drawdown, would likely trigger an increase in the severity score, potentially moving the asset back into the yellow zone or higher. Sustained price stability above $143.83 will continue to support the current green zone classification and the low-severity Drawdown Severity Score™ of 1.8.