PACCAR Is Down 9% Over 80 Days. What History Says Now

PACCAR's 83-Day Pullback Is Easing. What History Suggests

As of June 11, 2026, PACCAR Inc (PCAR) has officially exited the yellow warning zone and transitioned into the green recovery zone as its current drawdown moderates to -9.2%. The stock has spent 83 days in this drawdown period, recovering from its peak severity levels to its current price of $117.58. This shift indicates that the immediate downward momentum has slowed, bringing the stock's risk profile back to a slightly elevated status.

PACCAR's Transition to the Green Zone

The transition from the yellow zone to the green zone represents a notable shift in the stock's intermediate-term risk profile. Our data shows that the current Drawdown Severity Score™ has dropped to 1.8, which is classified as Slightly Elevated. The previous yellow zone status indicated a period of heightened volatility and deeper price pressure, but the latest price movement suggests stabilization.

The stock reached its all-time high of $129.48 before entering this current pullback. At the current price of $117.58, the stock remains -9.2% below that peak. While a -9.2% decline is significant, the reduction in the severity score indicates that the selling pressure is beginning to exhaust itself.

This recovery has taken 83 days to materialize from the initial peak. During this time, the stock experienced fluctuations that tested investor patience and triggered risk alerts. The move back to the green zone suggests that the worst of this specific correction cycle may be behind the asset, although a full recovery has not yet occurred.

Understanding the Drawdown Severity Score™ and Cycles

The Drawdown Severity Score™ is a proprietary metric designed to measure the intensity of an asset's price decline relative to its historical behavior. It avoids simple nominal price tracking, focusing instead on how a drawdown compares to the asset's historical distribution of pullbacks. This helps investors distinguish between routine market noise and structural trend breakdowns.

For PACCAR, drawdowns are a frequent occurrence due to the cyclical nature of the heavy-duty manufacturing sector. Our database has tracked 225 total historical drawdown events for this stock. Across all of these historical events, the average max drawdown is -5.5%, and the average drawdown duration is 60 days.

Because the current drawdown of -9.2% is deeper than the historical average of -5.5%, the stock spent a considerable period in the yellow zone. The duration of 83 days also exceeds the historical average drawdown duration of 60 days. However, as the price stabilized and began to claw back ground, the severity score adjusted downward to reflect a lower probability of further immediate downside.

Historical Comparisons: How PCAR Recovers From 5% Drops

To gain deeper insight into the current recovery, we must analyze how PACCAR historically behaves once a pullback exceeds the 5% threshold. Our data shows that PACCAR has dropped 5% or more from its peak 61 times in its history. These comparable drops provide a benchmark for how long investors might expect the current recovery process to last.

The average duration of these comparable 5% or deeper drops is 204 days. This historical baseline indicates that while the current 83-day period feels extended, it is actually well below the historical average for corrections of this magnitude. Cyclical industrial stocks often require several quarters to fully digest a downturn and establish new highs.

The table below contrasts PACCAR's current drawdown metrics with its historical averages to provide a clearer picture of where this recovery sits in a historical context.

This comparison highlights that the current pullback is deeper than the average historical event but has progressed much faster than the typical 5% correction. If history is any guide, a full return to the all-time high of $129.48 could still take several months, given the 204-day historical average for similar drops.

Valuation Context and Historical Multiples

To understand the risk profile of PACCAR during this recovery, we look at its historical valuation multiples as of 2026-06-11. Although the stock is down -9.2% from its all-time high, its valuation multiples remain near historical highs relative to its own past record. Specifically, the price-to-sales ratio sits at 2.2, which is in the 98th percentile of its own daily record since 2006-06-12, compared to its historical median of 1.2. Additionally, its EV-to-EBITDA ratio of 19.2 sits in the 100th percentile of its own daily record since 2006-06-12, compared to its historical median of 10.0. This indicates that despite the price pullback, the company's valuation metrics remain elevated relative to its long-term historical trading history.

Fundamental Drivers and Recent News Context

The stabilization of PACCAR's stock price comes amid several key fundamental developments and industry-specific news. Earlier in the correction cycle, market pressures had weighed heavily on the manufacturing sector. According to a report by TIKR.com, PACCAR stock was down 15% from its 52-week high at its lowest point, which created a challenging environment for institutional holders.

However, legislative developments have recently provided a more supportive backdrop for the heavy truck manufacturing industry. Yahoo Finance reported on a bill to end the federal excise tax on heavy trucks, a policy change that direct market participants believe could spur fleet renewals and boost demand for PACCAR's Kenworth and Peterbilt brands. This legislative progress has helped improve sentiment around the stock's medium-term earnings outlook.

In addition to policy support, institutional and insider activity has signaled confidence in the company's underlying value. MarketBeat reported that Allstate Corp increased its stock holdings in PACCAR, indicating renewed institutional accumulation during the pullback. Furthermore, according to filings reported by Stock Titan, director John Pigott updated his large share and stock unit holdings, showing continued insider commitment to the firm's long-term trajectory.

Key Thresholds and What to Monitor Next

Now that PACCAR has transitioned to the green zone, investors should monitor specific technical and data-driven thresholds to determine if this recovery is sustainable. The primary objective for a full recovery is the all-time high of $129.48. To reclaim this level, the stock must gain approximately 10.1% from its current price of $117.58.

On the downside, the key level to watch is the boundary that would trigger a return to the yellow zone. If renewed selling pressure pushes the drawdown past the -10% mark, the Drawdown Severity Score™ would likely rise back above the 2.0 threshold. This would signal that the green zone recovery was temporary and that the stock is entering a more prolonged consolidation phase.

We will continue to track PACCAR's daily price movements and update the severity score as new data becomes available. Investors can use these objective zones to strip emotion out of their decision-making process and monitor whether this industrial leader can maintain its upward momentum.