NuScale Power Is Down 78%. What History Says

NuScale Power Is Down 78% in 177 Days. What History Says

As of June 18, 2026, NuScale Power Corporation (SMR) is trading at $11.71, representing a -78.1% drawdown from its all-time high of $53.43. While the stock has seen a marginal price lift recently, our data shows it remains locked in the extreme red zone with a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 11.2. Historically, stocks that enter this extreme severity range face prolonged recovery timelines, with only a small fraction successfully reclaiming their peak prices within a two-year window.

The Numbers: Current Drawdown and Severity Score

The current drawdown has lasted 177 days as of June 18, 2026. This prolonged slide has pushed the stock's Drawdown Severity Score™ to 11.2, keeping it firmly within the red zone. Although there is minor upward movement, the stock's previous zone was also the red zone, indicating that this is a consolidation within extreme distress rather than a true trend reversal.

A -78.1% decline is far outside the normal volatility profile for SMR. Our database tracks every historical movement of this stock to provide objective context for this current decline. When an asset remains in the red zone for over 170 days, the probability of a rapid V-shaped recovery decreases significantly. Instead, the data suggests a period of extended base-building is more common.

Understanding the severity score helps investors separate short-term market noise from structural shifts. The Drawdown Severity Score™ of 11.2 indicates that SMR is experiencing one of the most severe drawdowns in its history. This score reflects both the depth of the price drop and the velocity of the decline over the 177-day period.

Peer Comparison: How Stocks Recover from Extreme Severity

When looking across the broader market, stocks that reach a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 10.0 or higher typically experience what we define as structural impairment. Our data shows that assets falling into this category require significant institutional buying to break out of the red zone. In past market cycles, companies with similar extreme drawdowns between -70% and -80% often undergo extended periods of sideways accumulation.

Many of these peers fail to return to their all-time highs, instead establishing new, lower baseline trading ranges. Investors monitoring these levels should note that a transition from the deeper red zone to a slightly higher position within the same zone does not guarantee a full recovery. Historically, only about one-fifth of non-mega-cap stocks experiencing a -75% or worse drawdown fully recover to their prior peaks within five years.

The remaining four-fifths of comparable stocks either undergo corporate restructuring, experience prolonged stagnation, or are acquired at a steep discount. This peer data underscores the high-risk nature of assets trading at these extreme severity levels. While the low nominal stock price of $11.71 may look attractive to retail participants, the institutional momentum required to reverse a 177-day slide is substantial.

Furthermore, our analysis of peer assets reveals that the transition from a red severity score to a yellow or neutral score is rarely linear. Stocks often bounce along the bottom of their trading ranges, experiencing multiple false breakouts. This volatile bottoming process can exhaust short-term traders and lead to further capital capitulation.

Historical Pattern: SMR's Past Drawdowns

To put the current 177-day slide in perspective, we analyzed the complete trading history of SMR. Over its history, the stock has experienced 22 total historical drawdown events. The average maximum drawdown across all these events is -17.5%, with an average drawdown duration of 58 days.

The current -78.1% drop is dramatically worse than these historical averages. However, when we filter for extreme drops of 50% or more, we find that SMR has experienced this level of distress 3 times in the past. These 3 comparable drops had an average duration of 320 days before resolving.

Because of the small sample size of just 3 events, investors should treat these historical averages with caution. A sample size of three historical events does not provide a statistically robust foundation, but it does offer the only available baseline for this specific asset's behavior during extreme stress. The contrast between SMR's typical -17.5% pullback and its current -78.1% decline highlights the unique nature of this market cycle.

Comparing the current 177-day duration to the historical 320-day average for 50%+ drops suggests that the current cycle may only be halfway through its typical resolution period. If SMR follows its historical pattern, it could remain in a depressed state for several more months. This historical context is critical for investors attempting to manage risk exposure.

Risk Management and the Anatomy of the Red Zone

At DrawdownAlerts, we categorize assets into severity zones based on their historical volatility and current peak-to-trough declines. The red zone represents extreme risk, where the probability of further capital loss or prolonged stagnation is statistically elevated. For a stock like SMR, which operates in a highly capital-intensive industry, staying in the red zone for 177 days highlights the market's skepticism regarding short-term profitability.

Understanding these zones allows investors to avoid the common mistake of entering a position before the asset has shown true signs of stabilization. Our data shows that premature entries during the red zone phase often lead to compounding losses, as the asset can remain depressed far longer than anticipated. Risk management models often require an asset to transition out of the red zone entirely before capital is redeployed.

The transition from red to yellow indicates a significant reduction in downside momentum. For SMR to achieve this, the daily price fluctuations must stabilize, and the stock must begin printing higher lows over a multi-week period. Until this occurs, the risk profile remains skewed to the downside regardless of intraday price spikes.

What Drove the Sell-Off: News and Catalysts

The severe decline in SMR's price reflects both broader sector dynamics and specific operational developments. According to NAI500, the stock's drop below the $15 mark forced long-term investors to weigh the high risks of the nuclear sector against the potential long-term opportunities. This sentiment was echoed by The Motley Fool, which analyzed whether the stock trading under $10 represented a trap or a long-term value play.

On the positive side, NuScale has maintained some fundamental tailwinds that have prevented a total collapse. According to TIKR.com, the company secured a first-mover advantage after the Nuclear Regulatory Commission backed its small modular reactor design. Despite this regulatory milestone, the stock has struggled to climb out of its deep drawdown, illustrating the massive capital requirements and long timelines associated with nuclear technology.

Additionally, corporate insider activity has drawn attention from market participants. According to Stock Titan, a NuScale Power director amended a Form 4 filing to restore 8,681 shares. While insider transactions can sometimes signal confidence, this minor adjustment was not enough to offset the broader institutional selling pressure that has characterized the last 177 days.

The nuclear sector has also become a battleground for speculative capital. According to Stocktwits, the debate between Oklo Inc. (OKLO) and SMR has intensified as investors try to determine which nuclear play has the competitive edge in the emerging artificial intelligence power trade. This comparison has introduced high volatility, as capital frequently rotates between these competing nuclear technology providers.

Remaining Distance: The Path to Recovery

Reclaiming the previous peak will require an extraordinary rally. From the current price of $11.71, the stock must rise by 356.3% to reach its all-time high of $53.43. This massive recovery requirement illustrates the mathematical reality of deep drawdowns: a -78.1% drop requires a return multiple times larger just to break even.

In terms of the severity scale, transitioning out of the red zone requires more than just a few positive trading days. The stock's Drawdown Severity Score™ must drop significantly below its current 11.2 level. Our data indicates that a sustained period of low volatility and consistent price appreciation is necessary to shift the asset back into the yellow or green zones.

Historically, assets that spend more than 150 days in the red zone require a fundamental catalyst to spark a sustained recovery. For SMR, this catalyst would likely need to be a major commercial contract, a significant reduction in capital expenditure forecasts, or a broader policy shift favoring small modular reactors. Without such a catalyst, the stock risk remains elevated, and it may continue to trade within its current depressed range.

Investors should closely monitor these metrics to determine if the current stabilization within the red zone is a temporary pause or the beginning of a longer-term structural shift. Our platform will continue to track SMR's Drawdown Severity Score™ daily to provide objective, data-driven updates on its recovery progress.