Nucor Is Down 14%. What History Says About NUE

Nucor Is Down 14% in 10 Days. Here Is What History Shows

Nucor Corporation (NUE) is down 14% from its all-time high as of June 29, 2026, and has been falling for approximately 10 days. The Drawdown Severity Score™ stands at 2.5, placing it in the yellow zone. In 31 comparable prior drops of this depth, Nucor Corporation took an average of 394 days to recover.

Nucor Exits the Green Zone as Drawdown Severity Rises

The recent price movement of Nucor Corporation has triggered a shift in its risk profile. As of June 29, 2026, the stock has closed at $228.58, representing a 14.2% decline from its all-time high of $266.35. This rapid descent has occurred over a span of just 10 days, marking a swift departure from the stock's previous high-water mark.

This price action has caused the stock to exit the green zone, which represents typical market volatility, and enter the yellow zone. The yellow zone indicates that the severity score has reached a level that warrants closer observation. Specifically, the Drawdown Severity Score™ now stands at 2.5, which we classify as Moderately Elevated.

A severity score of 2.5 means the ongoing drawdown as of June 29, 2026, is starting to exceed the normal noise of daily price fluctuations. In the green zone, pullbacks are frequent and typically resolve quickly without signaling a deeper shift in trend. Once the severity score crosses into the yellow zone, it indicates that the velocity or depth of the decline has surpassed historical baselines for standard market behavior. For Nucor Corporation, this 10-day move represents a sudden concentration of selling pressure that has quickly pushed the stock below its recent peak levels.

Historical Context of Nucor's Drawdown Events

To understand the significance of the current 14.2% decline, we must examine Nucor's complete historical drawdown record. Our database contains a comprehensive history of the stock's price movements, allowing us to compare this specific event to past cycles. Over its trading history, Nucor has experienced a total of 172 historical drawdown events.

Analyzing these 172 events reveals that the average max drawdown for the stock is -7.1%. This means that in a typical pullback, the stock historically experiences a peak-to-trough decline of just over 7%. The current decline of -14.2% is exactly double this historical average depth, illustrating that the current movement exceeds a standard correction for this asset.

Furthermore, the average drawdown duration across all 172 historical events is 79 days. This duration measures the entire cycle from the initial peak, through the trough, and back to a new high. In the current cycle, Nucor has been in a drawdown for only 10 days as of June 29, 2026. Comparing a 10-day duration to the historical average of 79 days highlights the speed of the current decline, as the stock has achieved double the average drawdown depth in a fraction of the average cycle time.

The table below contrasts the drawdown metrics as of June 29, 2026, with the historical averages compiled from all 172 past events.

This comparison underscores the unusual velocity of the current move. While most drawdowns in the stock's history are shallow and resolve within a few months, the current event has bypassed those historical averages rapidly.

Analyzing Prior 10% Drawdowns and Recovery Timelines

A key differentiator in our analysis is the ability to filter historical data to match the specific characteristics of the current event. Because Nucor has breached the 10% threshold, we must look specifically at how the stock has behaved during previous declines of similar magnitude.

Our historical data shows that Nucor has dropped 10% or more from its peak exactly 31 times. These 31 occurrences represent a subset of the 172 total drawdown events, indicating that a decline of this depth occurs in approximately 18% of all pullback cycles. This historical frequency shows that while a 14.2% drop is deeper than average, it is a well-documented occurrence in the stock's long-term trading history.

However, the historical recovery timeline for these larger declines is remarkably different from the overall average. For the 31 comparable drops of 10% or more, the average duration of the drawdown cycle is 394 days. This means that once Nucor crosses the 10% threshold, the process of finding a bottom and fully recovering to a new all-time high has historically taken more than a year on average.

This 394-day average duration for comparable drops is more than five times longer than the overall average drawdown duration of 79 days. It suggests that deeper corrections in Nucor's history are rarely resolved quickly. Once the selling pressure is sufficient to push the stock into a double-digit decline, the recovery phase has historically required a prolonged period of consolidation and rebuilding. Investors tracking the 10-day drawdown as of June 29, 2026, should note this historical precedent, as past performance indicates that recoveries from this level of severity have historically been long-term processes rather than short-term rebounds.

Valuation Context and Historical Multiples

To provide historical context, we can examine Nucor's valuation multiples relative to its own historical record. As of 2026-06-28, Nucor's Price-to-Sales ratio (P/S) stands at 1.6, which ranks in the 100th percentile of its own daily P/S record since 2006-06-26, well above its historical median of 0.91. Similarly, the EV-to-EBITDA ratio (EV/EBITDA) is 12.3 as of 2026-06-28, placing it in the 89th percentile of its own daily record since 2006-06-26, compared to a historical median of 7.9. This indicates that while the stock price has experienced a 14.2% drawdown, these valuation multiples remain elevated relative to the asset's own historical ranges.

Data Limits and Methodology

This drawdown analysis is constructed using a quantitative framework that relies strictly on historical price and drawdown data. We do not incorporate external market variables, macroeconomic indicators, industry trends, or corporate developments. By focusing solely on price action, we isolate the mathematical patterns of the stock's historical cycles.

The Drawdown Severity Score™ is designed to measure the statistical abnormality of a price decline relative to an asset's unique trading history. It does not attempt to explain the causes of price movements, nor does it factor in broader market sentiment. The historical recovery times and durations cited in this analysis represent mathematical averages of past occurrences. They are provided to establish historical context and should not be interpreted as predictions of future performance.

Market conditions are subject to change, and past patterns may not repeat in identical ways during the current cycle.

Key Drawdown Markers to Watch

For investors monitoring Nucor's market position, several key data markers will dictate whether the risk profile stabilizes or intensifies. The primary metric to track is the progress of the Drawdown Severity Score™ itself. If the stock continues to decline from its June 29, 2026, price of $228.58, the severity score will rise, potentially pushing the asset out of the yellow zone and into the red zone, which represents a high-severity state.

Conversely, a stabilization in price would halt the rise of the severity score. To transition back into the green zone, Nucor would need to demonstrate sustained upward price movement back toward its all-time high of $266.35. A reduction in the drawdown percentage would lower the severity score, indicating that the immediate risk of a prolonged correction is subsiding.

Another critical marker is the duration of the current drawdown. Having lasted only 10 days as of June 29, 2026, the drawdown cycle is in its very early stages compared to the 394-day average duration of prior 10%+ declines. Monitoring whether the stock can find a support level within the coming weeks, or if the duration begins to align with the historical multi-month recovery timelines, will provide valuable context on the structure of this correction.