Newmont Corp Is Down 11%. What History Says Now

Newmont Corp Is Down 11% in 183 Days. What History Says

Newmont Corporation (NEM) is now down 11% from its all-time high as of August 10, 2026, having just exited the yellow zone after 183 days in a drawdown. The Drawdown Severity Score™ has improved to 1.8, indicating a Slightly Elevated severity level. In 16 comparable prior drops of 10% or more, the stock took an average of 876 days to resolve its drawdown.

The Catalyst for Recovery

The primary driver behind Newmont Corporation's recent recovery is a combination of strong operational performance and positive market momentum. On August 10, 2026, the stock moved up by 3.05%, according to a market analysis by TradingKey. This upward movement helped push the stock price to $117.26, lifting it out of the higher-risk yellow zone.

This price appreciation followed the company's Q2 earnings report, which topped consensus analyst estimates according to Yahoo Finance. The earnings beat provided market participants with concrete evidence of operational efficiency, offsetting broader sector concerns. This positive fundamental news acted as a catalyst, shifting the technical outlook and improving the overall risk profile of the asset.

Additionally, broader institutional activity has shaped the stock's recent price action. According to MarketBeat, brokerage firms have maintained a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" on the stock. This collective institutional outlook has helped stabilize the stock, allowing it to begin recovering from its multi-month drawdown.

The Journey: How Deep the Drawdown Went and How Long It Lasted

The current drawdown journey for Newmont Corporation began 183 days ago when the stock reached its all-time high of $131.95. Since that peak, the asset has experienced a steady decline, eventually bottoming out in the yellow zone. As of August 10, 2026, the stock has clawed back a portion of those losses, leaving it down -11.1% from its peak.

During this 183-day period, several corporate actions and insider transactions influenced investor sentiment. For instance, The Globe and Mail reported that Newmont CEO Viljoen sold shares under a pre-arranged trading plan. Similarly, Stock Titan reported that the company's CFO sold 11,445 shares at $105.09 each. While these executive sales occurred under automated structures, they initially contributed to the cautious sentiment surrounding the stock.

Furthermore, institutional positioning experienced some adjustments during this drawdown. MarketBeat reported that Maj Invest Holding A S reduced its exposure by selling shares of the company. These combined factors created a challenging environment for the stock, prolonging its stay in the drawdown phase before the recent operational recovery began.

Recovery By the Numbers

Our data shows that Newmont Corporation has a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 1.8 as of August 10, 2026. This score places the stock in the Slightly Elevated risk category, which is a significant improvement from its previous yellow zone status. The current price of $117.26 represents a steady recovery, though the stock still has ground to cover to reach its previous heights.

To completely erase the current drawdown and return to its all-time high of $131.95, the stock must gain 12.53% from its current level. This remaining distance is relatively modest compared to deeper historical corrections. However, it still represents a notable hurdle that will require sustained buying pressure and favorable macroeconomic conditions.

The transition out of the yellow zone indicates that the immediate downside momentum has slowed. A severity score of 1.8 suggests that while risks remain, the asset is no longer experiencing the acute selling pressure that characterized the deeper phases of this 183-day drawdown.

Understanding the Drawdown Severity Score™

The Drawdown Severity Score™ is a proprietary metric designed to put an asset's current decline into historical context. Rather than looking at price drops in isolation, this score compares the current drawdown's depth and duration against all previous declines in the asset's history. This multi-dimensional approach provides a clearer picture of whether a pullback is normal or anomalous.

A score of 1.8 is classified as Slightly Elevated. This classification means the current decline of -11.1% is slightly outside the asset's typical quiet periods but remains far from a historic capitulation. For comparison, Newmont Corporation's historical average max drawdown across all 81 tracked events is -9.0%.

By analyzing these metrics, we can see that the current drawdown is slightly deeper than the historical average. However, because the duration has reached 183 days, the time spent in this drawdown is also slightly above the historical average duration of 179 days. This combination of depth and duration is what keeps the severity score in the Slightly Elevated range.

Historical Context: How Past Recoveries Played Out

To evaluate the likelihood of a full recovery, we must examine how Newmont Corporation has behaved during similar historical pullbacks. Over the history of the asset, we have recorded 81 distinct drawdown events. Analyzing these events reveals that while minor pullbacks resolve quickly, deeper drops require significantly more time.

When the stock experiences a drawdown of 10% or more, the recovery timeline extends dramatically. Our data shows that Newmont Corporation has dropped by 10% or more exactly 16 times in its history. These comparable historical drops had an average duration of 876 days before the stock fully recovered to its previous high.

The table below contrasts the current drawdown metrics against these historical benchmarks:

This historical comparison highlights a stark contrast. While the average drawdown resolves in 179 days, those that cross the 10% threshold often become multi-year recovery processes. With the current drawdown standing at 183 days, the stock is still in the early stages of what has historically been a lengthy resolution process for 10%+ drops.

Is the Worst Behind the Asset?

The recent shift in the Drawdown Severity Score™ from the yellow zone to Slightly Elevated is a positive technical sign. It suggests that the selling pressure has stabilized, and the asset is finding solid ground at the $117.26 level. However, historical data warns against assuming a straight-line recovery to the all-time high of $131.95.

In many of the 16 comparable historical drops, the stock experienced periods of consolidation or brief retests before fully recovering. The average comparable duration of 876 days suggests that the market often takes time to digest the structural changes that caused the initial drop. This historical pattern means that while the immediate risk has decreased, volatility could still return.

The consensus "Moderate Buy" rating from brokerages, as reported by MarketBeat, indicates that professional analysts see fundamental support at these levels. If the company continues to execute on its operational goals and beat earnings estimates as it did in Q2, it could help shorten the recovery timeline relative to the historical 876-day average.

Key Levels and Severity Thresholds to Monitor

For investors monitoring Newmont Corporation, several key price levels and severity thresholds will dictate the stock's path forward. The most immediate level to watch is the current price of $117.26. Staying above this level is crucial to maintaining the stock's Slightly Elevated status and preventing a slide back into the yellow zone.

The next major milestone is the historical average drawdown level of -9.0%, which equates to a price of approximately $120.07. Reclaiming this level would represent a return to normal historical operating parameters. It would also likely push the severity score closer to 1.0, indicating a highly stabilized risk environment.

On the downside, a break below the recent support levels established during the 183-day drawdown would be a negative signal. If the stock falls back toward the $105.09 level where the CFO sold shares, the Drawdown Severity Score™ would likely increase, pushing the stock back into the yellow zone or worse. Monitoring these specific thresholds provides a data-driven framework for assessing the stock's ongoing risk and recovery progress.