Nasdaq, Inc. Is Down 15% in 112 Days. What History Says.

Nasdaq, Inc. Is Down 15% in 112 Days. What History Says.

Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) is down 15% from its all-time high as of July 7, 2026, having just exited the red zone after 112 days in drawdown. The Drawdown Severity Score™ has improved to 3.2, placing the stock in the yellow zone. In the 9 comparable historical instances where NDAQ dropped 15% or more, the stock spent an average of 647 days in drawdown before fully recovering.

Transition from Red to Yellow Zone

As of July 7, 2026, the Drawdown Severity Score™ for NDAQ has improved to 3.2, moving the asset from the high-risk red zone to the elevated yellow zone. This transition indicates a stabilization in price action, though the stock remains in a drawdown of -15.3% from its peak. The current price of $85.49 reflects a recovery trend from its lowest points during this cycle, but the asset still has ground to cover to reach its all-time high of $100.98.

During the period spent in the red zone, the severity score reflected a highly critical historical mismatch between the stock's price drop and its typical recovery patterns. The move to the yellow zone suggests that the immediate downward momentum has paused, allowing the price to establish a temporary consolidation range. However, because the stock remains down -15.3%, risk parameters are still elevated compared to typical market cycles.

Contextualizing the Current Drawdown

To understand the scale of the current 112-day drawdown, we must compare it to the complete historical record of NDAQ. Our data shows that NDAQ has experienced 162 total drawdown events since its listing. The vast majority of these pullbacks have been minor, temporary fluctuations rather than prolonged corrections.

On average, a typical NDAQ drawdown reaches a maximum depth of -4.5% and resolves within 50 days. The current event has lasted more than twice as long as the historical average duration. This divergence highlights that the current cycle is an outlier in NDAQ's trading history, representing a deeper structural repricing rather than a routine pullback.

Distribution of NDAQ's Historical Drawdown Events

A closer examination of the 162 historical drawdown events reveals a highly skewed distribution. Out of these 162 events, 153 resolved before ever reaching a 15% decline. This means that approximately 94.4% of all historical drawdowns for NDAQ have been shallow, routine consolidations that quickly returned to peak levels.

The remaining 5.6% of events represent the rare, severe corrections that cross the 15% threshold. By entering this category, the current drawdown has moved out of the realm of normal market noise. Understanding this distribution helps clarify why the severity score remained in the red zone for so long, as the stock was behaving in a manner seen in only a tiny fraction of its historical trading days.

Historical Analysis of Deep Drawdowns

Our database reveals that NDAQ has crossed the -15% drawdown threshold only 9 times in its historical record. When the stock enters this territory, the recovery timeline shifts dramatically from its typical 50-day average. Historically, these 9 deep pullbacks have required an average of 647 days to fully recover and reclaim their previous all-time highs.

This historical average of nearly 1.8 years highlights the prolonged nature of deep corrections for this asset. Once NDAQ breaks past its typical minor pullback thresholds, the path back to peak pricing has historically been a multi-month process. Comparing the current 112-day duration to the 647-day historical average suggests that, if this cycle follows past patterns, the recovery process may still be in its early stages.

It is critical to include an explicit caveat regarding the statistical limitations of this historical data. A sample size of only 9 historical events is small, meaning that past performance under these specific conditions may not reliably predict future outcomes. Macroeconomic shifts, market structure changes, and unique corporate developments can all cause the current recovery to deviate substantially from the 647-day historical average.

Valuation Context

To add historical perspective, we can look at how the current valuation of NDAQ compares to its own trading history. As of 2026-07-06, the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio stands at 5.8, which ranks in the 90th percentile of its daily record since 2006-07-06, well above its historical median of 3.2. Similarly, the EV-to-EBITDA ratio is 18.5 as of 2026-07-06, placing it in the 73rd percentile of its daily history since 2006-07-06, compared to a historical median of 14.9. This indicates that despite the drop from its peak, NDAQ's valuation multiples remain high relative to its own long-term historical distribution.

Data Limitations and Methodology

This drawdown analysis is constructed using only historical price, drawdown depth, duration, and valuation metrics. We do not incorporate external qualitative factors, such as corporate earnings reports, regulatory developments, or broader macroeconomic events. Our data-only approach focuses entirely on isolating price action trends and comparing them to historical distributions.

By relying strictly on quantitative metrics, we avoid making causal claims about why the stock fell or what will drive its recovery. Investors should treat these historical distributions as risk context rather than a predictive forecast. External market dynamics that are not captured in price history can significantly alter how the current drawdown unfolds.

What to Watch Moving Forward

To monitor NDAQ's progress, investors should watch specific price levels and severity thresholds. For the severity score to improve further and transition into the green zone, the stock must continue its upward trajectory toward the all-time high of $100.98. A sustained price increase will reduce the drawdown percentage and lower the risk profile.

Conversely, if NDAQ faces renewed selling pressure and drops below its current price of $85.49, the drawdown will deepen beyond -15.3%. A reversal of this nature would likely push the Drawdown Severity Score™ back up into the red zone. Monitoring these exact boundaries provides a clear, data-driven framework for tracking NDAQ's risk profile without relying on speculative market narratives.