MP Materials Is Down 35%. What History Says Happens Next.

MP Materials Is Down 35% in 150 Days. What History Says.

The last time MP Materials Corp. (MP) reached a drawdown level this extreme was during a period of prolonged volatility where the recovery cycle extended well beyond the annual mark. As of May 13, 2026, our data shows that the stock has officially crossed from the yellow zone into the red zone, signaling a significant shift in its risk profile. This transition indicates that the current sell-off has moved past a standard correction and into a territory that historically requires much longer to resolve.

The Current State of the MP Drawdown

As of May 13, 2026, MP Materials Corp. (MP) is trading at $63.73, representing a 35.4% decline from its all-time high of $98.65. This current slide has lasted 153 days, which is nearly double the average drawdown duration for this specific asset. Our proprietary Drawdown Severity Score™ currently sits at 5.2, placing the stock firmly in the "Strong" red zone.

The move from the yellow zone to the red zone is a quantitative milestone that reflects increasing pressure on the stock price. While the average drawdown for MP is typically -14.5%, the current 35.4% drop suggests that the market is repricing the asset based on factors that deviate from its normal trading patterns. We track 24 total historical drawdown events for this stock, and the current event is now among the most severe in its recorded history.

Historical Context: When Drops Exceed 30%

In the history of MP Materials Corp. (MP), the stock has dropped by 30% or more only 3 times. This is a small sample size, but the data from these specific instances provides a stark contrast to the stock's typical behavior. While a standard pullback for MP usually lasts 79 days, these deeper 30%+ drawdowns have an average duration of 528 days before a full recovery to previous highs is achieved.

Our data shows that when the Drawdown Severity Score™ reaches this level, the "time to recovery" variable tends to expand significantly. In previous cycles, the stock often experienced a period of consolidation at these lower levels before any meaningful upward momentum returned. The current 153-day duration of this drawdown suggests we are only in the early stages of what has historically been a much longer process for this ticker.

Analyzing the 35% Threshold

The current 35.4% decline is more than double the average max drawdown of -14.5% that we have recorded across all 24 historical events for MP. This discrepancy is what triggered the shift in the Drawdown Severity Score™ to 5.2. When a stock exceeds its average drawdown by such a wide margin, it often indicates a fundamental shift in investor sentiment or a change in the underlying commodity cycle that the company serves.

We have observed that the frequency of these events is relatively low. Out of the 24 total pullbacks we have tracked for MP, only 12.5% of them have reached the severity we are seeing as of May 13, 2026. This rarity is a key component of the Drawdown Severity Score™ calculation, as it measures how "normal" or "abnormal" a price movement is relative to the stock's own volatility history.

Statistical Standing and Market Context

When comparing MP to other assets in the same sector, a 35.4% drawdown over 153 days places it in a high-volatility category. Our data suggests that the Drawdown Severity Score™ of 5.2 is currently higher than 80% of the other stocks we monitor in the materials and mining space. This indicates that MP is experiencing idiosyncratic weakness that is not necessarily being felt across the broader market.

The transition to the red zone is often accompanied by a decrease in price momentum and an increase in daily trading range. For MP, the current drawdown has already lasted 74 days longer than its historical average. Investors monitoring the Drawdown Severity Score™ should note that a move into the red zone does not historically result in an immediate "V-shaped" recovery: rather, it often precedes a period of heightened sensitivity to news and earnings reports.

Understanding the Recovery Timeline

History suggests that once MP enters a drawdown of this magnitude, the path back to the all-time high of $98.65 is rarely linear. With an average duration of 528 days for comparable drops, the historical precedent suggests a recovery could take over a year from the initial peak. We are currently 153 days into this cycle, meaning the stock is roughly 29% of the way through the average timeline observed in previous 30% declines.

It is important to remember the caveat that the 3-event sample size for 30% drops is small. However, the consistency of the Drawdown Severity Score™ in flagging these transitions allows for a data-driven view of risk. As of May 13, 2026, the data indicates that the risk remains elevated as long as the score stays within the red zone. We will continue to monitor if the stock can stabilize or if the severity continues to climb toward the next threshold.