MP Materials Is Down 30% Over 165 Days. What History Says.

MP Materials Has Been Falling for 165 Days. What History Says.

As of June 1, 2026, MP Materials Corp. (MP) has improved its risk profile by moving from the red zone into the yellow zone, even as the stock remains 29.8% below its all-time high. This transition follows a period of extreme drawdown severity. While the stock has recovered from its deepest recent lows, our data shows it still faces a significant journey to reach its previous peak of $98.65.

Transitioning From the Red Zone

The move out of the red zone signifies a shift in the Drawdown Severity Score™ from an extreme level to a "Significant" level. As of June 1, 2026, the stock carries a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 4.4. This score indicates that while the immediate downward momentum has decelerated, the asset is still experiencing a drawdown that is much deeper than its historical norm.

Our data shows that the current decline has lasted 165 days. During this window, the price reached $69.29, leaving a gap of nearly 30% to reclaim its record high. This duration is already more than double the average drawdown length for this ticker, suggesting this cycle is more persistent than typical pullbacks.

Historical Drawdown Context

To understand the current position of MP Materials Corp. (MP), we must look at the 24 total historical drawdown events recorded in our database. On average, this stock experiences a maximum drawdown of -14.5%. With a current drawdown of -29.8% as of June 1, 2026, the stock is currently sitting at roughly twice its historical average depth.

The typical recovery period for this asset is 79 days. The current 165-day stretch highlights that the stock is in an extended period of price depression. Historically, when the stock enters the yellow zone, it indicates a stabilization phase, though it does not guarantee an immediate return to previous highs.

Analyzing Comparable 30% Declines

Our data identifies only 3 times in the history of this ticker where the drawdown exceeded the 30% threshold. Because there are only 3 such events, we must emphasize that this is a small sample size for statistical comparison. However, the data from these specific instances provides a stark contrast to the stock's more frequent, shallower dips.

For these major declines, the average duration was 528 days. As of June 1, 2026, the current 165-day duration is significantly shorter than that historical average for deep pullbacks. This suggests that while the Drawdown Severity Score™ has improved from the red zone, the stock could remain in a recovery phase for an extended period if it follows the path of these three prior major events.

Data Limits and Methodology

This analysis relies exclusively on price action, drawdown depth, duration, and historical Drawdown Severity Score™ trends. We do not incorporate fundamental data, earnings reports, or external market commentary into this assessment. Our model focuses on the mathematical reality of the stock's price relative to its all-time high and how that behavior compares to its own historical record.

The shift from the red zone to the yellow zone is a mathematical observation based on the narrowing of the drawdown or a reduction in the velocity of the decline. It provides a framework for understanding risk levels but does not account for future market volatility or changes in the underlying business.

Severity Thresholds to Monitor

Investors tracking the recovery of MP Materials Corp. (MP) should monitor specific drawdown levels that would alter the current risk profile. A move back above a -20% drawdown would likely result in a further improvement of the Drawdown Severity Score™, potentially moving the stock toward the green zone. Conversely, if the drawdown widens beyond -30% again, the stock risks a return to the red zone.

As of June 1, 2026, the price of $69.29 serves as the baseline for this yellow zone designation. We will continue to monitor whether the stock can maintain this improved severity level or if the duration of this drawdown will continue to trend toward the 528-day average seen in previous major corrections.