Lockheed Martin Is Down 19%. What History Says Now

Lockheed Martin's 19% Drop: What History Says

As of June 11, 2026, Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) has moved out of its high-severity red zone and into the yellow zone, reflecting a partial recovery from its recent peak decline. The stock closed at $548.68, representing a -18.9% drawdown from its all-time high of $676.70. This transition marks a shift in the stock's Drawdown Severity Score™, which now stands at 4.2 out of 10.0 after 71 days in a drawdown state.

Analyzing the Red-to-Yellow Zone Shift

The transition from the red zone to the yellow zone indicates that the severity of the drawdown has moderated, though the stock remains in a significant pullback. Our proprietary Drawdown Severity Score™ uses a scale from 0 to 10 to quantify the intensity of an asset's price decline, with the yellow zone representing a "Significant" severity level. At a score of 4.2, LMT is no longer in the highest-risk category, but it still sits well below its historical baseline.

To understand the scale of this 71-day pullback, we must compare it to LMT's broader historical behavior. Over its trading history, LMT has experienced a total of 276 historical drawdown events. The average maximum drawdown across all 276 events is -3.8%, with an average drawdown duration of 50 days. The current drawdown of -18.9% is nearly five times deeper than the historical average, and its 71-day duration has surpassed the typical length of a standard LMT pullback by 21 days.

The movement into the yellow zone is a mathematical reflection of price stabilization. When an asset remains in a deep drawdown without making new lows, the time elapsed since the peak begins to weigh differently in our model, shifting the severity classification. However, a yellow zone designation indicates that risk remains elevated compared to historical norms, and the stock has not yet established a clear path back to its previous peak.

Historical Context of 15% Pullbacks

Drawdowns of this magnitude are relatively rare for LMT. Our historical data shows that LMT has dropped 15% or more from its all-time high only 12 times in its history. This puts the current -18.9% decline in an exclusive category of deep pullbacks.

When analyzing these 12 comparable historical events, the average duration to fully recover and reach a new all-time high is 765 days. This is a crucial benchmark for investors assessing the current recovery timeline. At 71 days into the current drawdown, the stock is in the very early stages of what has historically been a multi-year recovery process for declines exceeding 15%.

The table below contrasts the current drawdown metrics against LMT's historical averages across all events and its comparable deep pullbacks.

As shown, the current decline of -18.9% far exceeds the standard historical pullback of -3.8%. The historical average recovery duration of 765 days for comparable drops suggests that patience has historically been required before LMT reclaims its all-time high.

Historical Valuation Comparison

As of the valuation snapshot on 2026-06-10, the price drawdown of -18.9% contrasts with the stock's valuation multiples relative to its own history since 2006-06-12. The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio stands at 1.6, placing it in the 66th percentile of its own daily historical range, which is slightly above its historical median of 1.5. Meanwhile, the Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is 17.3, which sits in the 98th percentile of its own historical daily record, significantly higher than its historical median of 11.2.

The Non-Linear Nature of Drawdown Recoveries

Recovering from a -18.9% drawdown requires a substantial upward price movement. To return to its all-time high of $676.70 from the current price of $548.68, LMT must gain 23.3% from this level. The math of drawdowns dictates that the percentage gain required to recover always exceeds the percentage loss experienced during the decline.

Historically, these recoveries do not occur in a straight line. During the 12 comparable historical drawdowns that exceeded 15%, the recovery process was characterized by multiple false starts, secondary pullbacks, and extended periods of consolidation. Our data shows that after exiting the red zone, LMT has historically spent considerable time fluctuating within the yellow zone before either resuming its upward trajectory or, in some cases, retesting the drawdown lows.

The current 71-day duration is brief compared to the historical average recovery time of 765 days. This suggests that while the immediate downward momentum has slowed enough to trigger a zone change, the stock is historically more likely to undergo a prolonged period of base-building rather than a rapid, vertical recovery to its previous highs.

Methodological Limits of This Analysis

This analysis relies exclusively on historical price action, drawdown depth, duration, and proprietary mathematical modeling. We do not incorporate external factors such as corporate earnings, macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical events, or analyst recommendations. This data-only approach provides an objective, historical framework for evaluating risk, but it does not predict future performance or account for fundamental shifts in the underlying business.

While historical comparisons provide valuable context, every market cycle is unique. Past performance, including the average 765-day recovery duration for comparable declines, is not a guarantee of future outcomes. This analysis is designed to help investors understand where the current pullback sits within LMT's historical distribution of risk, rather than to forecast specific price targets or timing.

Key Levels and Severity Thresholds to Monitor

To evaluate whether LMT is continuing its recovery or risking a return to deeper drawdown levels, there are several key mathematical thresholds to monitor:

• The All-Time High ($676.70): The ultimate point of recovery. Reclaiming this level would officially end the drawdown state and reset the Drawdown Severity Score™ to zero.
• The Breakeven Hurdle (+23.3%): The required price appreciation from the current price of $548.68 to reach the previous peak.
• The 15% Drawdown Level ($575.20): Reclaiming a price above $575.20 would reduce the drawdown to less than 15%, which historically has been a key psychological and technical threshold for LMT.
• The Recent Lows: If the stock falls below its current drawdown level of -18.9%, the Drawdown Severity Score™ is highly likely to rise back above 5.0, pushing the ticker back into the high-severity red zone.

Monitoring these specific price and drawdown levels allows investors to track LMT's progress through a data-driven lens, free from market narrative or emotional bias.