Keysight Technologies Is Down 8%. What History Says

Keysight Technologies Is Down 8% in 40 Days. What History Says

Keysight Technologies, Inc. (KEYS) is now down 8% from its all-time high as of August 11, 2026, having just exited the yellow zone after spending a portion of its 40-day drawdown in elevated territory. The Drawdown Severity Score™ has improved to 1.7, placing the stock in the green zone. In 25 comparable prior recoveries where the stock dropped 5% or more, KEYS took an average of 146 days to resolve the drawdown.

The Anatomy of Keysight's 40-Day Drawdown

The current drawdown cycle for KEYS began 40 days prior to August 11, 2026, when the stock peaked at its all-time high of $373.34. From that peak, the stock experienced a steady decline, eventually reaching a current price of $343.70. This price movement represents a peak-to-trough decline of -7.9%.

During the course of this 40-day decline, the stock crossed from the green zone into the yellow zone. The yellow zone indicates that a drawdown has exceeded routine market noise and entered a phase of elevated risk. This transition is a key marker for risk managers, as it signals that the stock is experiencing a deeper correction than its typical historical pullbacks.

The recent transition back to the green zone, with a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 1.7, indicates that the downward velocity has moderated. A green zone rating represents a "Slightly Elevated" risk profile, suggesting that the stock is stabilizing. While the asset remains below its historical peak, the immediate pressure on the stock has decreased relative to its time in the yellow zone.

Current Position: Remaining Distance to All-Time Highs

As of August 11, 2026, KEYS is trading at $343.70, which is exactly $29.64 below its all-time high of $373.34. To fully recover from this -7.9% drawdown and establish a new historical peak, the stock must appreciate by 8.62% from its current price. This mathematical relationship highlights the inherent asymmetry of drawdowns, where the percentage gain required to recover is always larger than the percentage loss sustained.

The current Drawdown Severity Score™ of 1.7 reflects this remaining distance. While a score of 1.7 is in the green zone, it is not a neutral rating. The score indicates that the stock still carries a residual risk premium from its recent decline.

The duration of 40 days is also an important factor in assessing the current position. A 40-day period means the stock has spent nearly six weeks below its peak, establishing a clear medium-term correction. This duration provides a solid baseline for comparing the current pullback to the asset's historical behavior.

Comparing the Current Pullback to Historical Averages

To understand the significance of the current -7.9% drawdown, we must analyze it against the historical footprint of the asset. Our database has tracked a total of 98 historical drawdown events for KEYS. This extensive history provides a highly reliable set of benchmarks for evaluating current risk.

The average max drawdown across all 98 historical events is -4.5%. The current drawdown of -7.9% is 3.4 percentage points deeper than this historical average. This comparison confirms that the current decline is a more severe event than the typical pullback experienced by KEYS.

However, the current duration of 40 days is almost identical to the historical average drawdown duration of 41 days. This alignment suggests that while the depth of the current drop is unusual, the timeline of the correction is progressing in a manner that closely mirrors historical averages.

The Skew in Keysight's Drawdown Distribution

A deeper analysis of the 98 historical drawdown events reveals a significant statistical skew in how KEYS behaves during market corrections. While the average drawdown duration across all events is 41 days, this number is heavily influenced by a large number of very shallow pullbacks.

Of the 98 total historical drawdown events, 73 resolved before ever reaching a -5% threshold. These routine fluctuations account for 74.5% of all drawdown cycles for KEYS. Because these minor pullbacks resolve quickly, they pull down the overall average duration to 41 days.

However, once a drawdown breaches the -5% threshold, the statistical profile of the correction changes entirely. Only 25 of the 98 historical drawdowns have reached or exceeded a -5% decline. For these 25 deeper corrections, the average duration extends to 146 days.

This is a massive increase, representing a duration that is more than 3.5 times longer than the overall average. This skew indicates that once KEYS enters a deeper correction, it typically transitions into a prolonged recovery regime rather than a quick rebound.

Historical Context: How KEYS Behaves After 5% Drops

With a current drawdown of -7.9%, KEYS is firmly within the category of deeper historical corrections. The stock's current position must be evaluated against the 25 historical events that crossed the -5% threshold.

The historical average duration of 146 days for these deeper drops suggests that a full recovery often requires patience. Because the current drawdown has only lasted 40 days, it is still in the early-to-middle stages of a typical deep correction cycle. If the current cycle aligns with the historical average of 146 days, the stock could remain below its all-time high for several more months.

The transition from the yellow zone to the green zone is a positive sign, indicating that the severity score has improved to 1.7. However, history shows that a reduction in downward momentum does not guarantee an immediate move back to all-time highs. Often, the stock enters a period of consolidation within the green zone before mounting a sustained recovery.

Data Limits and Methodology

This analysis is strictly quantitative and relies entirely on verified price, drawdown, severity, duration, and historical comparison data. We do not incorporate qualitative inputs, macroeconomic indicators, corporate earnings, analyst ratings, or news events into our modeling.

By focusing solely on price and drawdown history, we eliminate the noise and bias associated with market narratives. The Drawdown Severity Score™ is a purely mathematical representation of where the current decline sits within the asset's own historical distribution.

This methodology does not predict future price movements or provide investment recommendations. Instead, it offers a clear, data-driven framework for understanding risk and contextualizing current price action within the historical footprint of the asset.

Key Thresholds to Watch Moving Forward

Investors tracking KEYS should monitor several key mathematical thresholds to assess whether the stock's risk profile is improving or worsening. These levels will dictate changes in the Drawdown Severity Score™ and the associated risk zones.

On the downside, the key level to watch is the current drawdown low of -7.9%. A decline below the current price of $343.70 would mark a new low for this cycle and push the drawdown deeper. Such a move would likely cause the severity score to rise back above 1.7, risking a return to the yellow zone.

On the upside, the primary milestone is the all-time high of $373.34, which would officially reduce the drawdown to 0.0% and reset the cycle. An intermediate milestone to watch is the -5.0% drawdown level, which sits at approximately $354.67. Reclaiming this level would move the stock out of the historical "deep correction" category and represent a significant step toward a full recovery.