Keurig Dr Pepper Down 13% After 1,350 Days: KDP Analysis

Keurig Dr Pepper Is Down 13% After 1,347 Days. What History Says

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) is down 13% from its all-time high as of July 7, 2026 and has been falling for approximately 1,350 days. The Drawdown Severity Score™ stands at 2.8, placing it in the yellow zone. In 17 comparable prior drops of this depth, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) took an average of 189 days to recover.

Keurig Dr Pepper Enters the Yellow Zone

As of July 7, 2026, the current stock price of $32.06 marks a 12.8% decline from its all-time high of $36.77. This downward movement has caused our proprietary Drawdown Severity Score™ to rise to 2.8. Consequently, the stock has transitioned from the low-risk green zone into the moderately elevated yellow zone.

This transition highlights a shift in the stock's risk profile. While the green zone represents normal, healthy market fluctuations, the yellow zone indicates that a pullback is beginning to exceed typical boundaries. The stock has now spent 1,347 days in this active drawdown state, which represents a highly prolonged period of stagnation.

The historical average drawdown duration for this asset is only 34 days. The current duration of 1,347 days represents a massive statistical outlier, showing that the stock has struggled to generate the upward momentum required to reclaim its historical peak.

Analyzing the Drawdown Severity Score™

To understand the significance of a 2.8 Drawdown Severity Score™, we must examine it against the stock's complete trading history. Our database has tracked a total of 143 historical drawdown events for this asset since its inception.

The average maximum drawdown across all 143 historical events is just -3.9%. The current drawdown of -12.8% is more than three times deeper than this historical average. This substantial difference explains why the Drawdown Severity Score™ has moved upward, signaling that the current price action is far more severe than a routine correction.

When an asset enters the yellow zone, it indicates that the selling pressure has bypassed typical support levels. While a severity score of 2.8 is not yet in the high-risk orange or red zones, it serves as a quantitative warning that the asset is experiencing a prolonged period of capital erosion.

Historical Comparison of 10% Pullbacks

Although the average pullback for this stock is relatively shallow, deeper corrections do occur. Our data shows that Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) has dropped by 10% or more from its peak only 17 times in its history.

To put the current situation into context, we can compare the active drawdown metrics against these historical precedents:

When looking at the 17 prior instances where the stock fell by 10% or more, the average duration of those comparable drops was 189 days. The current drawdown of 1,347 days is significantly longer than the historical average recovery timeline for drops of this scale. This indicates that the current cycle is experiencing unusually persistent downward pressure compared to previous historical corrections.

Historical Valuation Context

To provide additional perspective on the current price decline, we analyze the stock's valuation multiples as of 2026-07-06. The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is 2.7, which sits in the 61st percentile of its own daily P/S record since 2008-04-28, compared to a historical median of 0.44. Additionally, the Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio stands at 16.0, placing it in the 64th percentile of its daily historical EV/EBITDA record since 2008-04-28, versus a historical median of 13.0. These percentiles show that despite the 12.8% price decline from its peak, the stock's valuation multiples remain within their typical historical ranges and slightly above their long-term historical medians.

Methodological Scope and Data Limits

This drawdown analysis is built entirely on verified price, drawdown, and severity statistics. Our system does not incorporate external qualitative factors, such as corporate earnings reports, analyst adjustments, product announcements, or macroeconomic indicators.

By focusing exclusively on the mathematical properties of the price decline, we avoid the subjective narratives that often cloud market analysis. This quantitative approach allows investors to evaluate risk based solely on how the asset has behaved during similar historical periods.

It is important to note that historical averages serve as a guide rather than a guarantee. While the stock has historically resolved 10% drawdowns within an average of 189 days, the current 1,347-day cycle demonstrates that active market phases can deviate significantly from past patterns.

What to Watch Moving Forward

Investors tracking the progress of this drawdown can monitor several key quantitative metrics to determine if the stock's risk profile is improving or deteriorating.

First, watch the Drawdown Severity Score™ for any zone transitions. A decrease in the Drawdown Severity Score™ below 2.0 would indicate a return to the low-risk green zone, signaling that the stock is stabilizing. Conversely, if the severity score rises toward 4.0, it would mark a transition into the orange zone, indicating that the pullback is deepening toward historic extremes.

Second, monitor the duration and depth markers. If the price falls further, crossing below the current -12.8% mark, the severity score will adjust upward. The ultimate metric for a full recovery remains the all-time high of $36.77. Until the price reclaims this level, the stock will remain in an active drawdown state.