JEDI ETF Is Down 22% in 12 Days. What History Says.

JEDI Is Down 22% in 12 Days. What History Says.

As of June 9, 2026, the Defiance Drone and Modern Warfare ETF (JEDI) has experienced a 22.2% decline from its all-time high of $42.42, falling to a current price of $33.00. This move occurred over a span of 12 days, crossing the threshold from the low-risk green zone into the elevated yellow zone. According to our database, this shift is accompanied by a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 3.6, signifying that the active decline has surpassed typical historical pullbacks for this asset.

JEDI Crosses into the Yellow Zone

The transition from the green zone to the yellow zone represents a notable shift in the risk profile of the ETF. In our analytical framework, the green zone designates routine market volatility, where price fluctuations remain within historical averages. The yellow zone indicates that a drawdown has extended beyond these standard boundaries, signaling elevated risk and the potential for a prolonged recovery period.

The current price of $33.00 represents a swift departure from the peak of $42.42. The velocity of this decline, spanning only 12 days, highlights a rapid accumulation of downside momentum. While minor pullbacks are frequent occurrences in equity markets, the depth of this active move indicates a structural departure from the fund's typical price behavior.

Our data shows that the fund spent its prior trading days within the green zone, characterized by minor, self-correcting fluctuations. Crossing the boundary into a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 3.6 marks the end of that stable period. This transition suggests that the current market environment has introduced a level of selling pressure that exceeds the asset's standard historical resilience.

Deconstructing the 3.6 Drawdown Severity Score™

The Drawdown Severity Score™ is a proprietary metric designed to normalize and compare risk across different assets. A score of 3.6 places the current decline of the ETF in the elevated category. This score is calculated by evaluating the active drawdown's depth and duration against the complete historical distribution of all prior pullbacks for this specific asset.

A severity score of 3.6 indicates that while the active decline is significant, it has not yet reached the extreme tail-risk levels associated with the red zone. The score serves as a quantitative measure of relative stress. It tells us that the current 22.2% drop is more severe than the vast majority of historical pullbacks experienced by the fund, yet it remains within a range that has historically allowed for eventual stabilization.

By utilizing the Drawdown Severity Score™ instead of raw percentages alone, we can compare this decline to other historical periods with greater accuracy. A 22.2% drop in a highly volatile asset might register as a minor green-zone event, but for this specific ETF, a decline of this magnitude represents a significant deviation, as reflected in the elevated 3.6 score.

Historical Drawdown Metrics: How the Current Drop Compares

To understand the historical context of the active decline, we must analyze the complete history of the ETF's pullbacks. Our database has recorded a total of 7 historical drawdown events for this asset. Across all of these previous occurrences, the average maximum drawdown was -9.7%, with an average drawdown duration of 31 days.

The active drawdown of -22.2% is more than double the historical average depth of -9.7%. This substantial deviation indicates that the current selling phase is far more intense than a typical correction. Furthermore, the active decline has reached this depth in only 12 days, compared to the historical average cycle duration of 31 days. This comparison highlights the high velocity of the active downward move.

The velocity of a drawdown can be measured by dividing the total depth by the number of days elapsed. For the historical average, the rate of decline is approximately 0.31% per day. For the active drawdown, the rate of decline is approximately 1.85% per day. This calculation demonstrates that the active selling pressure is progressing at a pace nearly six times faster than the historical norm.

The Significance of the 20% Threshold

A drawdown exceeding 20% is a critical threshold in quantitative risk management. In the history of the fund, the drawdown has dropped 20% or more from a peak on exactly 2 times. This low frequency highlights the unusual nature of the active market structure.

For these 2 comparable historical drops, the average duration of the drawdown cycle was 90 days. This historical average includes the entire period from the initial peak, through the trough, and back to full recovery at the previous peak. Comparing the active duration of 12 days to this 90-day historical benchmark suggests that deep corrections for this asset typically require an extended period to resolve.

``` JEDI Drawdown Duration Comparison (Days) Average Drawdown: [===] 31 Days Active Drawdown: [==] 12 Days (Active) Comparable (>20%): [=========] 90 Days ```

It is essential to note the small sample size associated with these statistics. With only 2 comparable historical events in our database, the historical average of 90 days represents a limited dataset. While this average provides a useful quantitative reference point, the small number of occurrences means that future performance could deviate significantly from this historical pattern.

Quantitative Boundaries and Data Limits

This analysis is based strictly on verified price and drawdown history as of June 9, 2026. Our framework does not incorporate fundamental valuations, macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical developments, or qualitative sentiment analysis. We isolate these mathematical relationships to provide an objective, data-driven assessment of risk.

Because our model relies entirely on historical price action, it does not predict future performance or assign probabilities to specific market outcomes. The historical averages and comparable durations presented here are descriptive of past behavior under specific conditions. They serve as structural benchmarks rather than predictive targets.

The small sample size of historical drawdowns for this ETF is a key constraint of this analysis. The asset's trading history contains only 7 total drawdown events and only 2 events exceeding the 20% threshold. Consequently, the statistical averages have wider confidence intervals than those of older, more established assets with hundreds of historical drawdown cycles.

Structural Markers to Watch Moving Forward

As the active drawdown progresses, several quantitative markers can help track its trajectory relative to history. The first key marker is the 90-day duration threshold. Monitoring whether the fund stabilizes and begins a recovery phase before or after this 90-day benchmark will provide insight into whether this decline conforms to the timeline of prior deep pullbacks.

Another critical boundary is the Drawdown Severity Score™ threshold. If the price continues to decline below $33.00, the severity score will rise. A transition from the elevated yellow zone into the high-severity red zone would signal that the drawdown has entered unprecedented territory for this asset, indicating an escalation of tail risk.

Conversely, a sustained sequence of positive daily returns would indicate that the trough of the drawdown has been established. Once the bottom is set, we can track the recovery velocity, measuring the number of days required for the price to climb back toward the all-time high of $42.42. Comparing this recovery pace to the historical averages will provide further context on the structural health of the asset.