HII Is Down 28% in 45 Days. What History Says Now.

Huntington Ingalls Is Down 28% in 45 Days. What History Says.

Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) shares plunged recently as intense margin pressure and significant cash burn overshadowed a quarterly earnings beat, according to reporting from Seeking Alpha. This fundamental shift in the company's financial profile triggered a rapid decline in share price, moving the stock from the yellow zone into the red zone as of May 5, 2026. Our data shows that the stock is currently experiencing a drawdown of -28.1%, a level that carries a high Drawdown Severity Score™ of 5.8.

Breaking Down the Current Sell-Off

The current price of $326.13 sits well below the all-time high of $453.73. While the company reported 13% revenue growth in the first quarter of 2026 according to AlphaStreet, investors have focused on internal headwinds. MarketBeat reported that the stock experienced a significant gap down following concerns over execution and cash flow.

Our Drawdown Severity Score™ of 5.8 indicates a "Strong" severity level, placing the ticker firmly in our red zone. This classification suggests that the current price action is significantly more severe than the stock's typical volatility profile. Historically, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) has seen an average max drawdown of only -4.6% across 97 total historical drawdown events. The current -28.1% drop is more than six times larger than the historical average.

The speed of this decline is also a factor in the Drawdown Severity Score™. This sell-off has reached its current depth in just 45 days. When compared to the average historical drawdown duration of 53 days, the current move represents a sharp and concentrated loss of market value.

Historical Context and Comparable Drops

To understand the current situation, we must look at how Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) has behaved during previous periods of extreme stress. Our data shows that the stock has dropped by 40% or more only 3 times in its history. This is a small sample size, which investors should consider when evaluating historical averages, but these events provide the only available roadmap for high-severity recoveries.

For these comparable drops of 40% or more, the average duration was 843 days. This suggests that when this stock enters a period of deep correction, the recovery process tends to be a multi-year endeavor rather than a quick rebound. While the current drawdown is -28.1% and has not yet reached that 40% threshold, the move into the red zone indicates that the stock is entering rarefied territory.

Recent insider activity has added another layer of context to the data. Investing.com reported that EVP Chewning sold $736,000 in stock recently. Additionally, a Form 144 filing noted that 9,067 shares vested with Fidelity listed as the broker, according to Stock Titan. While insider sales occur for many reasons, they often draw scrutiny during periods of price weakness.

Industry and Valuation Context

Despite the current price pressure, the underlying demand for the company's primary products remains a long-term factor. Morningstar recently noted that demand from the US Navy for HII's ships is headed up, which provides a fundamental backdrop to the technical drawdown. The disconnect between rising demand and falling share price often stems from the margin pressure and cash burn issues cited in recent earnings reports.

From a valuation perspective, the stock is being re-evaluated by the market. Simplywall.st recently examined the company's valuation following this share price pullback, noting that the market is currently repricing the stock's future cash flow expectations. Our Drawdown Severity Score™ captures this repricing in real-time by measuring the current price against historical norms.

The transition from the yellow zone to the red zone is a data-driven signal that the risk profile has changed. In the yellow zone, pullbacks are often within the realm of standard market corrections. The red zone, defined by a Drawdown Severity Score™ above 5.0, indicates that the current move is statistically significant and deviates from the stock's normal behavior.

What to Watch Moving Forward

The path ahead for Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) depends on whether the company can address the margin concerns that triggered the initial sell-off. Investors often monitor the Drawdown Severity Score™ to see if the score begins to plateau or if it continues to climb toward the levels seen in those rare 40% historical drops.

Key data points to monitor include:

1. The stabilization of the Drawdown Severity Score™: A peak in the score often precedes a period of price consolidation.
2. Duration of the drawdown: As we pass the 45-day mark, the stock is approaching its historical average drawdown duration of 53 days.
3. Margin updates: Any news regarding the mitigation of cash burn could act as a catalyst to halt the current slide.

Our data shows that Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) is currently in its most significant period of price weakness in recent years. By comparing the current -28.1% drawdown to the 97 historical events in our database, we can see that the stock is testing levels that it has historically reached very infrequently.