Generac Is Down 42% Over 1,600 Days. What History Says.

Generac Has Been Falling for 1,600 Days. What History Says.

As of June 22, 2026, Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC) remains in the red zone with a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 8.4, representing a -41.6% drawdown from its all-time high. The stock closed at $295.54, continuing a prolonged contraction that has now lasted 1,622 days. Our data shows that while the asset has stabilized slightly above its deepest trough levels, it remains deeply entrenched in a high-severity historical drawdown.

Analyzing Generac's Current Drawdown Depth and Duration

To understand the scale of the current pullback, we must look at the mathematical relationship between the peak and the current price. Generac reached its all-time high of $505.80 before entering this downward cycle. At the current price of $295.54, the stock has experienced a peak-to-trough decline of -41.6%.

This depth places GNRC in the red zone with a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 8.4, which indicates a drawdown of very large proportions relative to historical norms. The duration of this decline is equally notable: the stock has spent 1,622 days below its peak. For an asset to remain in a drawdown for over four years, it requires a sustained shift in price regime rather than a temporary spike in volatility.

The mathematics of recovery also present a significant hurdle for the stock. To reclaim its previous all-time high of $505.80 from the current price of $295.54, the stock must rally by approximately 71.14%. This asymmetry is a core characteristic of deep drawdowns: as the percentage decline deepens, the percentage gain required to break even increases exponentially.

How the Current Drawdown Compares to Historical Averages

To put the current 1,622-day period into context, we compare it against the asset's complete historical record. Across all trading sessions since inception, Generac has recorded 131 distinct drawdown events. The vast majority of these events were brief, minor pullbacks that resolved quickly.

Our proprietary Drawdown Severity Score™ provides a framework to contrast these routine fluctuations with the current event:

• The average maximum drawdown across all 131 historical events is -4.9%.
• The average duration of all historical drawdowns is just 31 days.

Comparing these historical benchmarks to the current -41.6% depth and 1,622-day duration highlights the extreme nature of the current cycle. The current drawdown is more than eight times deeper than the historical average and has lasted over fifty times longer than a typical pullback for this stock. This indicates that the current event is not a standard correction, but a major structural realignment.

Historical Context of 30% Plus Declines

While minor pullbacks of -4.9% are common, deep corrections are rare for this asset. Our data shows that Generac has experienced a decline of 30% or more from its peak only 3 times in its history.

When these severe drawdowns occur, they take a significant amount of time to resolve. The average duration of these comparable 30%+ drops is 737 days. The current drawdown, at 1,622 days, is already more than double the historical average duration of these deep declines.

When evaluating these historical averages, investors must account for a small sample size caveat. With only 3 comparable events in the dataset, the historical average of 737 days is highly sensitive to individual outliers. It does not represent a statistically robust distribution, meaning the historical average should be treated as a loose reference point rather than a predictive baseline.

Historical Valuation Context and Drawdown Alignment

To provide historical context, we examine the asset's valuation multiples relative to its own historical trading history. As of the valuation snapshot on 2026-06-21, despite the -41.6% price drawdown, the asset's valuation multiples remain elevated relative to its own historical distribution. The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio stands at 3.8, which places it in the 88th percentile of its own daily P/S record since 2010-02-11, well above its historical median of 1.9. Similarly, the EV-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is 34.4, positioning it in the 95th percentile of its own daily EV/EBITDA record since 2010-03-30, significantly higher than its historical median of 13.2. This divergence shows that while the stock price has experienced a large contraction from its peak, the underlying valuation multiples remain near the upper end of the asset's own historical range.

This disconnect between price drawdown and valuation percentile can occur when a company's underlying sales or earnings compress alongside or faster than its share price. When valuation percentiles remain in the 88th and 95th percentiles despite a 41.6% price drop, it indicates that the stock has not experienced a corresponding cheapening relative to its historical fundamentals.

Methodology and Data Limits

This drawdown analysis relies strictly on historical price, duration, and valuation data. We do not incorporate external qualitative factors, such as product demand, macroeconomic shifts, regulatory developments, or corporate leadership changes.

By focusing purely on quantitative drawdown mechanics, we isolate the mathematical reality of the stock's price path. This approach provides objective boundaries for risk assessment, but it does not predict future performance or account for fundamental business shifts that could alter the company's long-term trajectory. Past performance and historical recovery durations do not guarantee future outcomes.

Key Levels and Severity Thresholds to Monitor

To track whether Generac is beginning to stabilize or if it remains vulnerable to further downside, several key price and drawdown thresholds can be monitored.

First, for the stock to reduce its drawdown to -30%, which represents the historical boundary for its deepest corrections, the price must rise to $354.06. Reaching this level would mark a significant step toward compressing the current drawdown and moving out of the deepest historical risk territory.

Second, a move to a -20% drawdown would require a price of $404.64. Crossing this threshold would signify a transition out of the red zone and toward a more typical recovery path, though it would still leave the stock well below its historical average recovery time.

Finally, the ultimate milestone is a full recovery to the all-time high of $505.80, which requires a sustained 71.14% rally from the current price of $295.54. Monitoring these specific levels allows investors to objectively track the stock's progress without relying on subjective market narratives.