FormFactor Is Down 8%. What History Says About FORM

FormFactor Is Down 8% in 5 Days. What History Says

FormFactor, Inc. (FORM) is now down 8% from its all-time high as of June 29, 2026, having just exited the yellow zone after 5 days in drawdown. The Drawdown Severity Score™ has improved to 1.2, placing the stock in the green zone. In 18 comparable prior drops of 5% or more, the stock took an average of 419 days to fully recover.

FormFactor Exits Yellow Zone as Severity Improves

As of June 29, 2026, the price of FORM stands at $144.17, representing an 8.0% decline from its all-time high of $156.66. This shift marks a transition from the yellow zone to the green zone. The Drawdown Severity Score™ has adjusted to 1.2, which our data classifies as Slightly Elevated.

The stock has spent 5 days in this drawdown period since peaking. The transition into the green zone indicates a reduction in immediate downside momentum based on our proprietary metrics. This zone change provides a quantitative benchmark for tracking the stock's recovery progress.

Our data shows that the green zone represents the lowest risk tier on our scale. A severity score of 1.2 suggests that while the stock remains below its peak, the pullback is relatively mild compared to historical extremes. Investors tracking this asset can use this score to evaluate the depth of the move relative to past cycles.

Breakdown of the Current 5-Day Drawdown

The drawdown began 5 days prior to June 29, 2026, when the stock reached its all-time high of $156.66. Since that peak, the stock has experienced a steady descent to its price of $144.17. This represents a total absolute decline of $12.49 per share.

A 5-day duration is a brief window in the context of historical stock movements. In this short timeframe, the stock has quickly established an 8.0% drawdown. This rapid initial descent is a key characteristic of the pattern that we can compare against historical averages.

To visualize where this sits on the broader timeline of the stock's historical performance, we can look at the phase of the pullback. The speed of this 8.0% drop will be a critical factor in determining whether the recovery follows historical norms or establishes a new precedent.

Historical Drawdown Benchmarks for FormFactor

To understand the significance of an 8.0% decline, we must analyze the historical record of FORM. Since its initial tracking, the stock has undergone 35 total historical drawdown events. These events encompass every instance where the stock fell from a peak and subsequently recovered to establish a new high.

Across all 35 historical drawdown events, the average maximum drawdown was -13.3%. This indicates that the drawdown of 8.0% as of June 29, 2026, is shallower than the typical historical decline. However, the average duration of those 35 historical events was 218 days, which is substantially longer than the 5 days recorded in the current cycle.

The table below outlines how the current drawdown metrics compare directly to these historical averages:

This comparison highlights that while the price drop is less severe than the average historical trough of -13.3%, the duration of 5 days represents only a fraction of the historical average recovery period. Historically, the stock has required months to fully resolve its pullbacks.

Analysis of Comparable 5% Drops

When we narrow our analysis to focus only on declines of a similar scale, the historical picture changes. Our data shows that FORM has dropped by 5% or more from its peak a total of 18 times in its history. This subset of deeper drawdowns provides a more accurate comparison for the 8.0% decline.

For these 18 comparable drops of 5% or more, the average duration to reach a full recovery was 419 days. This is more than double the average duration of all 35 drawdown events combined. This discrepancy suggests that once the stock crosses the 5% threshold, the recovery process historically becomes a long-term event.

The table below details the historical relationship between drawdown thresholds and recovery times for FORM:

As of June 29, 2026, the stock has spent 5 days in its drawdown. Historical recoveries for drops of this magnitude have averaged over a year, illustrating the potential for extended recovery timelines when the 5% threshold is breached.

Valuation Context and Historical Multiples

To provide historical context, we examine the valuation multiples of FormFactor as of 2026-06-28. Although the stock has experienced an 8.0% price drawdown, its valuation multiples remain elevated compared to its own historical record since 2006-06-26. Specifically, the Price-to-Sales ratio stands at 12.4, placing it in the 99th percentile of its own daily history against a historical median of 2.6. Similarly, the EV-to-EBITDA ratio of 67.8 sits in the 91st percentile of its historical range since 2006-06-26, compared to a historical median of 20.6.

Methodology and Data Limits

Our analysis relies exclusively on verified price, drawdown, severity, duration, and historical comparison data. We do not incorporate external qualitative factors such as corporate earnings reports, macroeconomic shifts, analyst ratings, or industry news. The Drawdown Severity Score™ is a purely mathematical representation of price action relative to historical benchmarks.

By focusing strictly on quantitative price data, we avoid the subjective narratives that often accompany market movements. This methodology ensures that our insights remain objective and repeatable. However, readers should note that this analysis does not account for changes in business fundamentals or broader market conditions that may influence future price performance.

The historical patterns documented in our database represent past performance, which does not guarantee future outcomes. The 35 historical drawdowns and 18 comparable drops of 5% or more provide statistical context, but each market cycle can present unique characteristics that deviate from historical averages.

Key Drawdown Thresholds to Watch

As the drawdown progresses, several key price levels and drawdown thresholds will dictate the future trajectory of the Drawdown Severity Score™. Monitoring these specific levels allows investors to track whether the decline is stabilizing or deepening.

The table below outlines the critical price levels based on specific drawdown percentages calculated from the all-time high of $156.66:

If the stock price falls below $140.99, representing a 10.0% drawdown, the severity score is highly likely to increase. This would signal a potential return to the yellow zone, indicating elevated risk. Conversely, if the price moves back above $148.83, the drawdown will shrink below 5.0%, further reducing the severity score and signaling a move toward full recovery.

Tracking these specific quantitative thresholds provides a clear roadmap for evaluating the stock's price action without relying on emotional reactions or market speculation. We will continue to monitor these metrics as new data becomes available.