FCX Is Down 14%. What History Says About This Drop

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Just Entered the Yellow Zone. What History Says About This 14% Drop.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) has experienced a 14.0% drawdown from its all-time high of $70.32 as of May 18, 2026. This move has pushed the stock out of the green zone and into the yellow zone, signaling a shift in risk profile for the first time in several weeks. Our data shows the current price of $60.50 reflects a decline that has now persisted for 18 consecutive days.

Understanding the Current Drawdown Severity Score™

The current Drawdown Severity Score™ for FCX stands at 2.2. Our data classifies this as a "Moderately Elevated" level, placing the stock firmly within the yellow zone. This score is a proprietary measurement of how the current price action compares to the historical volatility and drawdown patterns of the stock itself.

When FCX moves from the green zone to the yellow zone, it indicates that the current decline has exceeded typical minor fluctuations. The 14.0% drawdown is already deeper than the stock's historical average max drawdown of -11.0%. This suggests that the current 18-day sell-off is exhibiting more intensity than the median decline observed across the 65 total historical drawdown events we have recorded for this asset.

Historical Context of Comparable Declines

To understand the current risk, we must look at how Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) has behaved during previous periods of significant stress. Our data shows that this stock has a history of extreme volatility, including 3 separate instances where the price dropped by 80% or more. These severe historical events represent the outer limits of the stock's drawdown profile.

In those 3 specific comparable cases where the stock experienced such deep declines, the average duration to resolve the drawdown was 2,571 days. It is important to note that this is a small sample size consisting of only 3 events. While these extreme historical precedents exist, they represent the most severe outliers in the 65 total drawdown events tracked by our system. The current 18-day duration is still very early in the lifecycle of a typical FCX drawdown, which has an overall historical average duration of 160 days across all recorded events.

Data-Only Analysis Parameters

This analysis relies exclusively on verified price, drawdown, severity, and duration data provided by our platform as of May 18, 2026. We do not incorporate fundamental metrics, earnings reports, or broader market sentiment into this specific evaluation. Our focus remains entirely on the mathematical reality of the price decline and how the current Drawdown Severity Score™ of 2.2 aligns with the asset's historical behavior.

By looking only at the price and drawdown history, we provide a clear view of the stock's technical risk without the noise of outside narratives. The transition from the green zone to the yellow zone is a data-driven event based on the breach of specific severity thresholds. Our data shows that the current 14.0% decline has moved past the "normal" correction phase for this ticker and is now entering a period of heightened historical significance.

Monitoring the Path to Recovery

Investors tracking the risk profile of FCX should monitor specific data markers to determine if the current trend is accelerating or stabilizing. A further increase in the Drawdown Severity Score™ would indicate that the stock is moving closer to the red zone, which typically occurs when a drawdown exceeds historical norms for both depth and speed.

Conversely, a decrease in the severity score would suggest that the stock is beginning to stabilize at these levels. Given that the current 14.0% drop is already 3 percentage points deeper than the historical average max drawdown of -11.0%, the stock is currently in a state of overextension relative to its typical behavior. We will continue to monitor the duration of this event, as it currently stands at 18 days compared to the historical average of 160 days for all drawdown events in this asset's history.