Emerson Electric Is Down 11% in 90 Days. What History Says

Emerson Electric Is Down 11% in 90 Days. What History Suggests

As of June 23, 2026, Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) has entered an active -11.5% drawdown from its all-time high of $161.69, a decline that has now persisted for 91 days. This price movement has officially shifted the stock out of its low-risk green zone and into the moderately elevated yellow zone, triggering a proprietary Drawdown Severity Score™ of 2.4 out of 10.0. Investors tracking this asset are observing a departure from the historical baseline, as both the depth and the duration of this decline now exceed the stock's long-term historical averages.

Emerson Electric Crosses Into the Moderately Elevated Yellow Zone

The transition from the green zone to the yellow zone signifies a structural shift in the stock's risk profile. Our data shows that a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 2.4 represents a level of downside volatility that is no longer considered standard market noise for this asset. The price of $143.14 as of June 23, 2026, reflects an active contraction that has lasted 91 days, marking a prolonged period of downward pressure.

To put this in perspective, our historical database tracks 272 total drawdown events for this stock. Across all of these historical events, the average maximum drawdown is -4.5%, and the average drawdown duration is 51 days. The -11.5% drop as of June 23, 2026, is more than double the historical average depth, and the 91-day duration is nearly twice the average historical recovery window. This indicates that the asset is experiencing an extended correction rather than a brief, typical pullback.

A severity score of 2.4 indicates that while the decline has exceeded average historical parameters, it has not yet reached the severe historical extremes seen in major market cycles. The yellow zone serves as an early-warning threshold, indicating that the asset is experiencing a deeper-than-average retracement that requires closer monitoring.

Historical Analysis of 10% Drawdowns for EMR

To understand the potential path forward, we must look at how the stock has behaved when experiencing similar declines. Our historical data shows that Emerson Electric Co. has dropped by 10% or more from a peak only 25 times out of its 272 total drawdown events. This means a double-digit decline is a relatively rare event, occurring in less than 10% of all historical pullbacks.

When the stock does breach the 10% threshold, the recovery process has historically been a long-term endeavor. The average duration of these 25 comparable drops is 409 days. This average duration of 409 days is substantially longer than the 91 days that the stock has spent in its drawdown as of June 23, 2026, suggesting that historical recoveries from this level of severity are typically measured in quarters rather than weeks.

The table below outlines the core metrics contrasting the drawdown as of June 23, 2026, with the stock's complete historical drawdown profile.

This historical comparison highlights the gap between a typical minor retracement and a deeper 10% correction. While a standard pullback for this stock is resolved in under two months, a double-digit decline has historically required over a year on average to fully recover and reach a new high.

Historical Valuation Multiples Versus Price Drawdown

To provide further context, we can examine how the stock's valuation multiples compare to its own history during this price decline. As of the valuation snapshot on 2026-06-22, the Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio for Emerson Electric Co. is 4.6, which sits in the 99th percentile of its own daily P/S record since 2006-06-19, well above its historical median of 2.0. Similarly, the EV-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is 18.9, placing it in the 98th percentile of its own daily EV/EBITDA record since 2006-06-19, compared to its historical median of 11.9. This indicates that despite the -11.5% reduction in share price from its peak, the stock's valuation multiples remain near the very top of their own historical ranges over the last two decades.

Distribution and Frequency of Historical Drawdowns

Analyzing the broader distribution of the 272 historical drawdown events provides deeper insight into the stock's structural risk patterns. The vast majority of these 272 events were shallow, short-lived pullbacks that aligned closely with the historical average drawdown of -4.5%. These minor pullbacks represent normal market fluctuation, where the stock experiences a temporary pause in upward momentum before returning to its prior trajectory within the average 51-day window.

When a decline exceeds these typical bounds, it transitions through distinct risk phases. The movement past the average -4.5% mark represents the first major threshold, indicating that the selling pressure has exceeded average historical parameters. The subsequent crossing of the -10% threshold, which has occurred only 25 times in the asset's history, marks a transition into a much scarcer category of drawdown event.

The historical data shows that the deeper a drawdown becomes, the longer the recovery period tends to stretch. For minor drawdowns, the recovery is swift because the price deviation from the peak is minimal. However, once a drawdown reaches -11.5%, the stock must gain approximately 13% from its price of $143.14 as of June 23, 2026, just to reclaim its previous all-time high of $161.69. This mathematical reality, combined with historical precedent, explains why the average duration for comparable drops of 10% or more extends to 409 days.

Methodological Parameters and Analysis Limits

This analytical assessment is structured strictly around historical price, drawdown, severity, and valuation data. We do not incorporate external market narratives, macro developments, or corporate events into this model. The analysis relies on the assumption that historical price behavior and drawdown patterns offer objective risk parameters, but past performance does not guarantee future outcomes.

By limiting our evaluation to quantitative price action and historical comparisons, we provide a clean, data-driven view of how the current decline compares to the asset's historical record. The Drawdown Severity Score™ is a dynamic metric designed to measure current price distance from historical peaks relative to historical volatility. It is not a predictive tool, nor does it attempt to forecast the exact bottom of the current decline.

Key Technical Thresholds and What to Watch

As the stock remains in the yellow zone with a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 2.4, there are several specific data thresholds that will dictate whether the risk profile intensifies or stabilizes.

First, the 91-day duration as of the article date is far below the historical average of 409 days for comparable double-digit declines. If the current drawdown continues to follow the historical pattern of 10%+ drops, we would expect a prolonged period of consolidation or further volatility before a sustained recovery occurs. Conversely, an early recovery that breaks back toward the all-time high of $161.69 much faster than the 409-day average would represent a historically rapid rebound for this stock.

Second, investors should monitor the specific drawdown depth levels. A further decline that pushes the drawdown past the current -11.5% level would increase the severity score and could eventually transition the stock from the moderately elevated yellow zone into the orange zone, which represents a higher tier of historical risk. On the other hand, a steady reduction in the drawdown percentage, moving back toward single digits, would eventually transition the stock back into the lower-risk green zone.

Finally, the relationship between the price drawdown and the valuation percentiles remains a key point of observation. Even with the share price down -11.5%, the valuation multiples as of 2026-06-22 remain in the 98th and 99th percentiles of their own historical ranges. How these multiples adjust, either through further price movement or changes in underlying financial metrics, will be a critical component of the asset's long-term risk profile.