EMCOR Group Is Down 15% in 35 Days. What History Says

EMCOR Group Is Down 15% in 35 Days. What History Says

EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) is down 15% from its all-time high as of June 26, 2026, and has been falling for 35 days. The Drawdown Severity Score™ stands at 3.0, placing the stock in the yellow zone after transitioning from the green zone. In 20 comparable prior drops of this depth, the stock took an average of 390 days to recover.

The Mechanics of the Transition to the Yellow Zone

Our data shows that EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) crossed a key threshold on June 26, 2026, when its price fell to $798.10. This price point represents a current drawdown of -15.4% from the stock's all-time high of $943.75. This downward movement has persisted for 35 days, triggering a change in the Drawdown Severity Score™ to 3.0.

The Drawdown Severity Score™ is a proprietary metric designed to measure the intensity of an asset's price decline relative to its historical behavior. A score of 3.0 classifies the stock's current state as "Moderately Elevated," placing it within the yellow zone. This transition from the green zone indicates that the current pullback has exceeded the typical minor fluctuations that characterize the stock's standard trading patterns.

In the green zone, price declines are generally shallow and short-lived, representing normal market noise. The shift to the yellow zone indicates that the drawdown has entered a deeper phase, which historically correlates with longer recovery times. By monitoring these zone transitions, we can track when a routine pullback begins to display characteristics of a more prolonged correction.

Current Severity in Historical Context

To understand the severity of the current -15.4% drawdown, we must examine the stock's complete historical record. Our database has tracked a total of 235 historical drawdown events for this asset. Analyzing these events provides a baseline for evaluating whether the current 35-day decline is an outlier or a standard occurrence.

Across all 235 recorded drawdown events, the average maximum drawdown is -5.4%. The current drawdown of -15.4% is nearly three times deeper than this historical average. This substantial deviation from the mean is the primary factor driving the severity score to 3.0. It indicates that the current sell-off is far more intense than the vast majority of pullbacks the stock has experienced in the past.

In terms of duration, the average historical drawdown for the stock lasts 46 days. The current drawdown has been active for 35 days, which is still below the historical average. This mismatch between depth and duration is a key characteristic of the current market phase. The stock has reached a deep drawdown level relatively quickly, indicating a rapid rate of decline over a short period.

Valuation Context and Historical Multiples

To provide historical valuation context, as of 2026-06-25, the Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio for the stock stands at 2.1, which sits in the 99th percentile of its own daily P/S record since 2006-06-26, compared to a historical median of 0.47. Additionally, the EV-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is 18.1, placing it in the 94th percentile of its own daily EV/EBITDA record since 2006-06-26, compared to a historical median of 9.8. This indicates that despite the -15.4% price drawdown, both valuation multiples remain historically high relative to the asset's own past trading history.

Historical Comparison: How Prior 15% Drops Played Out

A critical component of evaluating risk is analyzing how the stock behaved during previous declines of similar magnitude. Our historical data shows that the stock has dropped by 15% or more from its peak exactly 20 times out of the 235 total drawdown events. These 20 occurrences represent the most relevant historical precedents for the current price action.

When the stock enters a drawdown of 15% or deeper, the historical recovery timeline extends dramatically. While the average duration for all 235 drawdowns is just 46 days, the average duration for these 20 comparable drops is 390 days. This means that once the stock breaches the 15% threshold, the time required to recover its previous peak has historically been more than eight times longer than a standard pullback.

The following table outlines the key metrics contrasting the current drawdown with these historical benchmarks:

This historical data highlights the difference between a routine pullback and a major correction. The current 35-day active duration is still in its early stages compared to the 390-day average recovery time observed in the 20 prior comparable drops. History suggests that drawdowns of this depth often require extended periods of consolidation before the stock can reclaim its previous high.

Data Limits and Methodology

This analysis is strictly quantitative and relies exclusively on historical price and drawdown data for EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME). We do not incorporate external market narratives, corporate earnings reports, macroeconomic indicators, or analyst forecasts into this model. Our data-driven approach focuses solely on mathematical patterns in price action, drawdown depth, and historical recovery durations. Consequently, this analysis does not identify or imply any causal factors behind the stock's recent price movement.

By limiting the scope of this analysis to verified historical metrics, we eliminate subjective bias and speculative narratives. The historical averages and percentiles presented here are mathematical facts derived from the stock's daily trading history since 2006-06-26. These figures provide an objective framework for assessing risk, but they do not predict future performance, as past market behavior is not a guarantee of future outcomes.

What to Watch: Key Drawdown Markers

As the current drawdown progresses, there are several specific data thresholds that will alter the risk profile of the stock. First, investors can monitor the -15.4% drawdown level. If the price continues to decline and the drawdown deepens, the Drawdown Severity Score™ will likely increase from its current 3.0 level, potentially moving the stock from the yellow zone into the orange or red zones of high severity.

Second, the duration of the drawdown is a key metric to track. The current duration of 35 days is approaching the historical average drawdown duration of 46 days for all events. If the drawdown extends past 46 days without a recovery, it will exceed the typical duration of a standard pullback, aligning more closely with the longer-term historical corrections.

Finally, the 390-day average recovery duration for comparable 15%+ drops serves as a long-term benchmark. Tracking how many days the stock remains below its all-time high of $943.75 will provide continuous context on whether this decline is resolving quickly or conforming to the historical average of more severe corrections. A movement back toward the peak will reduce the drawdown percentage and lower the severity score, eventually signaling a return to the green zone.