Deere Is Down 12% in 165 Days. What History Says Now

Deere Is Down 12% in 165 Days. What History Says

Deere & Company (DE) is down 12% from its all-time high as of August 19, 2026, and has been falling for 165 days. The Drawdown Severity Score™ stands at 2.4, placing the stock in the Moderately Elevated yellow zone. In 37 comparable prior drops of 10% or more, the stock took an average of 320 days to recover.

Understanding the Transition to the Moderately Elevated Yellow Zone

Our proprietary tracking system monitors the price movements of thousands of assets to identify when normal market volatility transitions into a more prolonged decline. As of August 19, 2026, Deere has officially crossed the threshold from the green zone to the yellow zone. This transition signals a shift from a standard, low-risk pullback to a Moderately Elevated risk profile.

The Drawdown Severity Score™ of 2.4 indicates that the current decline is beginning to deviate from the typical historical behavior of this asset. In the green zone, price fluctuations are generally considered routine market noise. Crossing into the yellow zone indicates that the duration and depth of the current drop have reached levels that warrant closer observation from risk-conscious investors.

To put this in perspective, the current price of $580.63 sits well below the all-time high of $662.49. This represents a current drawdown of -12.4%. While a double-digit decline is not unprecedented for this stock, the length of time the asset has spent in this state is what primarily drives the elevated severity score.

A drawdown is mathematically defined as the peak-to-trough decline before a new peak is attained. The duration of 165 days represents the consecutive calendar days that the stock has traded below its previous high. This prolonged period without reclaiming its peak suggests a persistent lack of buying momentum.

Historical Drawdown Analysis and Baseline Volatility

To properly assess the risk of the current decline, we must analyze the stock's historical volatility footprint. Our database tracks a total of 254 historical drawdown events for this asset. Across all of these events, the average maximum drawdown is just -5.7%, and the average drawdown duration is 56 days.

Comparing these baseline metrics to the current data highlights the unusual nature of the current pullback. The current drawdown of -12.4% is more than double the historical average depth. Meanwhile, the current duration of 165 days is nearly triple the historical average duration of 56 days.

This discrepancy indicates that the current sell-off is far more persistent than the typical pullbacks Deere has experienced in the past. When a stock fails to reclaim its all-time high within the average timeframe, the probability of a prolonged consolidation or a deeper correction increases. The historical baseline shows that while minor pullbacks are frequent, a stretch of 165 days without a recovery is a statistically rare event for this asset.

The large sample size of 254 historical events provides a highly reliable baseline for normal behavior. Most pullbacks are shallow and resolve quickly, allowing the stock to resume its upward trajectory. The current deviation from this norm is the primary reason the severity score has entered the Moderately Elevated range.

How Prior 10% Pullbacks Played Out

While mild pullbacks are the norm, deeper corrections do occur. Our historical data shows that Deere has experienced a drawdown of 10% or more exactly 37 times. These 37 events serve as the most accurate comparable benchmarks for the current -12.4% decline.

When the stock enters a drawdown of this magnitude, the recovery timeline changes dramatically. The average duration of these comparable 10% or greater drops is 320 days. This is significantly longer than the 56-day average for all drawdowns, demonstrating that once a correction reaches double digits, the path to recovery is typically measured in quarters rather than weeks.

The current drawdown has lasted 165 days, which means the stock has been in a decline for approximately half the duration of a typical historical 10% correction. This historical context is vital for managing risk expectations. It suggests that while the current decline is already prolonged relative to a standard pullback, history indicates that double-digit corrections often require several additional months of consolidation before a new all-time high is achieved.

The table below outlines the key metrics comparing the current drawdown to the historical averages of all drawdowns and the subset of comparable double-digit declines.

Analyzing these 37 historical occurrences reveals that once the stock crosses the 10% threshold, it often enters a prolonged consolidation phase. The current duration of 165 days means the stock is roughly halfway through the historical average duration of 320 days for similar declines. However, every market cycle is unique, and historical averages serve as a guide rather than a guarantee.

Valuation Context and Historical Multiples

As of the valuation snapshot on 2026-08-18, the Price-to-Sales ratio (P/S) for Deere stands at 3.5, which sits in the 99th percentile of its own daily P/S record since 2006-08-17, compared to a historical median of 1.4. Concurrently, the EV-to-EBITDA ratio (EV/EBITDA) is 20.0, placing it in the 97th percentile of its own daily EV/EBITDA record since 2006-08-17, versus a historical median of 13.5. This indicates that despite the -12.4% price drawdown from its all-time high, the asset's valuation multiples remain historically high relative to its own twenty-year historical distribution.

Methodology and Data Limits

This drawdown analysis relies exclusively on historical price action, drawdown depth, duration, and proprietary severity metrics. We do not incorporate external qualitative factors such as corporate earnings reports, macroeconomic indicators, industry trends, or analyst rating changes. By focusing solely on the quantitative footprint of the stock's price history, we provide an objective look at how the current price action compares to past cycles.

It is important to recognize that price-based analysis has inherent limits. While historical patterns show how the stock has behaved during past 10% declines, they cannot predict future price movements with absolute certainty. The market environment changes, and past recovery timelines may not reflect the outcome of the current cycle.

Our data-driven approach is designed to help investors understand where the current decline sits on a historical spectrum of risk. By stripping away market narrative and news sentiment, we focus purely on the mathematical severity of the pullback. This allows investors to assess risk based on empirical historical behavior rather than speculative forecasts.

What to Watch Moving Forward

To determine whether the current drawdown is stabilizing or worsening, investors can monitor several key quantitative thresholds. The first critical marker is the Drawdown Severity Score™ itself. A move below 2.0 would signal that the risk profile is moderating and the stock is transitioning back toward the green zone.

Conversely, if the severity score continues to climb toward 3.0 or higher, it would indicate that the current decline is taking on a more severe historical character. This would likely be driven by either a deepening of the drawdown below -12.4% or a continued extension of the duration past the current 165 days.

Another key benchmark is the historical average duration of 320 days for comparable 10% declines. If the stock remains in a drawdown as it approaches this duration marker, it will indicate that the current recovery is taking longer than the typical historical correction. Monitoring these specific data points provides a clear, objective framework for tracking the stock's progress.