ConocoPhillips Is Down 9% Over 34 Days. What History Says.

ConocoPhillips Just Reclaimed the Green Zone After a 34-Day Pullback

ConocoPhillips (COP) has improved its risk profile as of May 16, 2026, transitioning from the yellow zone into the green zone. The stock currently sits at a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 1.5, which our data classifies as Slightly Elevated. While the equity remains 8.5% below its all-time high of $133.80, the reduction in volatility and price stabilization has moved the ticker out of more cautious territory.

Tracking the 34-Day Drawdown Period

The current decline began 34 days ago when the stock retreated from its peak. During this period, the Drawdown Severity Score™ climbed into the yellow zone, indicating a period of increased risk relative to historical norms. Our data shows that the stock reached a current price of $122.41 by the May 16, 2026, data date, representing a total drawdown of 8.5%.

This 8.5% decline is notably deeper than the average maximum drawdown for this asset. Historically, ConocoPhillips (COP) has experienced an average max drawdown of -6.6% across 200 total historical drawdown events. The fact that the current pullback has exceeded this average while still maintaining a green zone severity score suggests that the velocity and duration of the move are currently within manageable historical parameters.

Historical Context and Severity Score™ Dynamics

The Drawdown Severity Score™ of 1.5 provides a specific lens through which to view the current 8.5% decline. While the stock is down, the current severity suggests that the price action is not yet mirroring the most extreme historical sell-offs. For context, our data shows that ConocoPhillips (COP) has dropped 60% or more only 3 times in its trading history.

When the stock experiences these extreme declines of 60% or more, the recovery process is significantly prolonged. The average duration of those comparable drops is 1438 days. It is important to note the small sample size for these specific extreme events, as only 3 such instances exist in our dataset. This compares to an overall average drawdown duration of 68 days across all 200 recorded events for the stock.

Data-Only Analysis and Risk Thresholds

Our analysis of ConocoPhillips (COP) relies exclusively on verified price, drawdown, severity, and duration data. We do not incorporate fundamental metrics, analyst ratings, or outside market events into this assessment. By focusing on the Drawdown Severity Score™, we provide a perspective based on how the current price action compares to the stock's own historical volatility and recovery patterns.

The transition from the yellow zone to the green zone as of May 16, 2026, indicates a statistical cooling of risk. However, the stock remains in an active drawdown of 8.5%. The path back to the all-time high of $133.80 will depend on the stock's ability to maintain this improved severity profile without re-entering the yellow or red zones.

Monitoring Future Severity Shifts

Investors tracking ConocoPhillips (COP) should monitor specific thresholds that would alter the current data picture. A further increase in the drawdown percentage beyond the current 8.5% could trigger a reversal back into the yellow zone. Conversely, a continued move toward the all-time high would likely result in a further decay of the Drawdown Severity Score™ toward zero.

We will continue to track whether this 34-day event follows the typical 68-day average duration for the stock or if it persists as an outlier. The current price of $122.41 serves as the primary benchmark for assessing whether the stock can maintain its position in the green zone or if the Drawdown Severity Score™ will signal a return to elevated risk levels.